How will Russia react now that Turkey's military has entered Syria?

Rudy Panko
Russia Insider
Thu, 21 Jan 2016 13:22 UTC

© Unknown

With peace negotiations to begin next week, and with almost no bargaining chips left to play with, Erdogan has decided to send Turkish forces into Syria.

Turkey has seized the ISIS-controlled town of Jarabulus, but faced no resistance, according to reports:

Eyewitnesses to the incursion reported that the Turkish forces have not encountered any resistance from ISIS fighters in the area. These reports once again raise the question of possible collaboration between Turkey and ISIS aimed at halting the advance of the Kurdish militias in north Syria.

The fact that Turkey faced zero resistance is suspicious, but even more troubling is Erdogan's level of desperation. The Kurds are slowly retaking northern Syria from ISIS. For Turkey this is an unacceptable reality. As Patrick Cockburn wrote earlier this week, "Turkey is getting close to the point where it has to become militarily engaged in the war for northern Syria or become a marginal player."

Stratfor also predicted a Turkish incursion into Syria. Earlier this week Stratfor wrote, "In what could be a sign of this intent, Turkish minesweeping vehicles have started clearing mines along a section of the border near the Syrian town of Jarabulus, which the Islamic State controls."

© Stratfor 2015

Turkish build-up on the Syrian border, as reported by Stratfor

But the big question now is: How will Russia respond? According to Stratfor, Russia has agreed not to interfere:

According to Stratfor sources, Russia and the United States have discussed the plan, and Russia has agreed not to obstruct Turkey's efforts so long as Ankara does not try to expand the buffer zone to the Mediterranean Sea — a stipulation Turkey has reportedly acquiesced to. Our sources also said liaison officers from Turkey, Russia and the United States will coordinate with one another to prevent cases of accidental fire or, in the event that they do occur, to avoid any escalation between Turkish and Russian forces.

Time will tell.

Comment: No doubt that, after Turkey took down a Russian bomber, Russia was well aware that further escalations were simply a matter of when and where. As Pepe Escobar pointed out back in December, 2015:

The current shadow play - which includes the deployment of US Special Forces to northern Syria - opens the possibility that Turks and Americans are about to launch a major offensive to expel Islamic State from the crucial Jarabulus crossroads. Erdogan's pretext is well known: to block by any means the attempt by YPG Syrian Kurds to unite their three cantons in northern Syria. In this corridor, Erdogan wants to install a dodgy, hazy bunch of Turkmen - his proxies - mixed with unspecified Sunni "moderate rebels," keeping all lines of communication (and smuggling) with Turkey open.

Syrian Kurds, on the other hand, want to get there first. With American air support. And with Russian air support. This is one of the few things Team Obama and the Kremlin do agree on in Syria - to the absolute despair of the Sultan. The inside word from Ankara is that Turkey would be ready for a ground push on Jarabulus but only under American cover. Quite absurd, considering Washington and Ankara hardly are looking for the same endgame.

Syria: The break for the border