"Opposition to rally largest crowd today," pro-opposition Ad-Diyar newspaper's frontpage headline read Sunday. It said the opposition would escalate its campaign from Monday by calling strikes that would lead to a civil disobedience campaign.

Thousands of Lebanese soldiers and police tightened security in the capital hours before the rally. One Shi'ite protester has been killed and several people hurt in shooting incidents, riots and clashes between supporters of both sides over the past week.

Siniora and the Sunni-led ruling majority refuse to give in, accusing the Shi'ite Hezbollah of trying to stage a coup in the wake of their 34-day war against Israel earlier this year.

Commentators have warned that the worsening stand-off could degenerate into wide-scale violence in a country that is still trying to recover from its last civil war that spanned 1975 through 1990.

However, political sources in Siniora's government say no political solution or compromise is in sight. Several pro-government rallies were held in various areas across Lebanon on Saturday, highlighting the deep divisions among the Lebanese.

A U.S. State Department official on Saturday accused Syria and Iran, Hezbollah's allies, of trying to destabilize Lebanon and said the situation was of "very significant concern".

Dark clouds

Saudi Arabia strongly backs the Siniora government and is worried by the rising influence of Shi'ite power Iran through support for Lebanese group Hezbollah, Shi'ite parties in Iraq and Tehran's alliance with Damascus.

"Our Arab region is surrounded by a number of dangers, like a powder keg ready to explode," King Abdullah said, adding that "dark clouds" were threatening civil strife in Lebanon.

The struggle is between two broad alliances, with the ruling coalition made up of Sunni Muslim, Druze and some Christian parties confronting Hezbollah, another Shi'ite group and a Christian party headed by former General Michel Aoun.

"Mr prime minister go home, it's better for you because you cannot captain the ship," Aoun said on Saturday, repeating opposition accusations that Siniora was a U.S. vassal.

When the opposition launched their protest 10 days ago, hundreds of thousands took to the street in a country with an estimated population of around four million.

In the following days there have been regular rallies in the tent city that has sprung up in two central squares but no further mass mobilization of opposition forces. Sunday's protest is due to start at 3 P.M.

Lebanon's pro-Syrian President Emile Lahoud refused on Saturday to endorse plans for the court, saying the depleted cabinet had acted unconstitutionally last month when it had moved to approve the project.

Hezbollah's Al-Manar television said the protest promised to be larger than the Dec. 1 rally that kicked off the opposition campaign.

An army spokesman said that the demonstration was "unprecedented in the history of Lebanon", expecting that "hundreds of thousands" people had gathered in the heart of Beirut.

Lebanese TV stations' footage showed that thousands of soldiers and police, backed by armored personnel carriers, tightened the security in Beirut.

Meanwhile, hundreds of heavily-armed police and combat troops unfurled barbed wire and erected barricades around Seniora's office in case of possible attack by the demonstrators.

The mass rally was mobilized on Wednesday and Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah also called on his supporters to take part in the rally during a speech on Thursday.

Opposition supporters have been camping out in central Beirut since Dec. 1, paralyzing the heart of the capital, to put pressure on Seniora to set up a government of national unity.

In spite of the promise given by the opposition that the rally was "peaceful", one Shiite protester was killed and about 20others were wounded in shooting incidents, riots and clashes between pro- and anti-government supporters over the past week.

Lebanese sectarian tension in the cabinet began to escalate last month when six pro-Syrian ministers resigned after Seniora and the anti-Syrian majority in the parliament rejected the opposition's demand for a new national unity government.

In the wake of their resignation, the opposition said Seniora's government had lost its legitimacy since Shiite Muslims are no longer represented.

However, the anti-Syrian ruling parliamentary majority has accused the opposition of doing Damascus's and Tehran's bidding and seeking to undermine the formation of an international tribunal for the trial of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri's killing.

So, is the Hizbollah militia, which withstood Israel's disastrous bombardment of Lebanon last summer, really planning a coup on behalf of its Iranian and Syrian backers, as Mr Siniora suspects? Or are Mr Siniora and his cabinet colleagues - Sunni Muslim, Christian and Druze - working on behalf of the Americans and Israelis, as Hizbollah's leader, Hassan Nasrallah, proclaims?

Already, Mr Siniora's administration is being referred to in the American press as Lebanon's "US-backed government", the virtual kiss of death for any Arab leader these days, while Mr Aoun's split with his fellow Christians could prove fatal to him. Only because of his weird alliance with the Hizbollah can the latter claim that their opposition represents Christians as well as Muslims. True to the ironies of Lebanese politics, it was the same former general Aoun who fought a "war of independence" with Hizbollah's Syrian friends in 1990, a conflict which he lost at the cost of 1,000 lives.

But even supporters of Mr Siniora's administration were taken aback by the vast numbers of Lebanese that Hizbollah could mobilise yesterday, men and women who in many cases came from the villages and urban slums which suffered near-total destruction in this summer's war.

Their speakers played the role of representatives of the poor - "the people of the street" is how one foolish Sunni prelate called them on Friday - who had no time for the privileged classes or feudal pretentions of the government's supporters: Amin Gemayel, father of the murdered industry minister, Nayla Moawad, widow of a murdered Lebanese president, Saad Hariri, son of the assassinated ex-prime minister Rafik Hariri, and Walid Jumblatt, son of the murdered Druze leader Kamal Jumblatt.

If Lebanon's politics and history were not so tragic, there would be an element of Gilbert and Sullivan about all this. Mr Siniora, now regularly visited by America's busy little ambassador Jeffrey Feltman, was told by one of Mr Feltman's predecessors only a few years ago that his multiple re-entry visa to the United States was invalid because he, Mr Siniora, was believed to have donated money to a charity associated with - yes - the Hizbollah. And there was more than a hint of sarcasm yesterday when Mr Qassem announced that Mr Siniora worked for the Americans and the Israelis.

"Death to America - Death to Israel," he roared and, of course, the mass of demonstrators repeated this tired rhetoric. To the Arab nations which supported Mr Siniora's government, Mr Qassem had a simple message: "We are in the hearts of the Sunnis of the Arab world - not you!"

And the danger for Mr Siniora is that Mr Qassem's conviction is probably correct. Indeed, there was a hint of revolution in the air yesterday as the poor and the village youths and the people of the Beirut slums converged on Martyrs' Square where Hariri's tomb was cordoned off. Leila Tueni, the daughter of another of Lebanon's murdered political leaders, the journalist Jibran Tueni (like all the victims, anti-Syrian), stated in a hall only a few hundred yards from the protests that the real reason why Mr Nasrallah wanted to overthrow Mr Siniora's government, from which all Shia ministers have resigned, was to prevent it giving its approval to the UN tribunal intended to try Hariri's killers, whom Ms Tueni and the rest of Mr Siniora's supporters believe to include some of Syria's senior intelligence apparatchiks.

But something even more dangerous was getting loose yesterday. The sheer size of the crowds apparently permitted Mr Qassem and Mr Aoun to demand a different - or a rival - government. But it was not Shias but Mr Siniora's supporters who won the last elections in Lebanon. If that election result were no longer valid, what did this say about the Hizbollah's respect for electoral politics and Lebanon's constitution?

And the growing Shia-Sunni divisions here mirror, in faint, pale but frightening form, the tragedy of the two sects in Mesopot-amia. Shias have twice attacked the Beirut Sunni suburb of Tarek al-Jdeide, a Shia has been murdered and turned into an opposition "martyr", and the mufti of the Sunni Qoreitem mosque is reported as attacking the historic Shia imams, Ali and Hussein.

Mr Jumblatt has now called for students at the Lebanese University to study at home after a brawl on campus between Shia and Sunni undergraduates. "This university is for all Lebanese," Mr Jumblatt insisted. But is Lebanon?

The opposition, spearheaded by Hizbullah, has declared the government ineffective, unrepresentative and corrupt, and seeks inclusion in the cabinet.

"These are the people of Lebanon, not those men in expensive suits sitting in that building," said 32-year-old chef Qasim Fouad, pointing to the government building behind him. "Siniora is Washington's man, not the leader of the Lebanese people. The Arabs and the Americans support him, but what is the point if he has lost the Lebanese people? We will succeed here today; this government will fall."

Addressing the crowds, Sheik Naim Qasim, Hizbullah's second in command after Hassan Nasrallah, said the opposition would stay on the streets for months if necessary. "Does Bush want popular expression in Lebanon? Do the west and the Arabs want to hear the voice of the people in Lebanon? Tell them 'Death to America!' Tell them 'Death to Israel!'"

The Christian opposition leader, Michel Aoun, a former army chief, told Mr Siniora he had days to either accept a national unity government or face actions that would lead to a transitional government and early elections. "What we hope for today is for them to understand that their era is over," he announced via a broadcast on giant screens.

Political unrest has split the country along dangerous sectarian lines, with most Sunni Muslims supporting the Sunni prime minister and Shiite Muslims backing the militant Hezbollah. Christian factions are split between the two camps.

Mr Siniora, bolstered by support from Washington and much of the EU, as well as pro-western Arab regimes, remained defiant. "What is the great cause for this tense political clamouring and the open sit-ins?" he said. "Is this the ideal way to achieve demands, whatever they are?"

The army has deployed thousands of troops to the city centre in a move the army commander, Michel Suleiman, says it is unable to sustain indefinitely.

Backstory

Tensions have been escalating since six ministers resigned from the cabinet last month and joined the opposition, after the announcement it was to vote on an international tribunal to try Lebanese and Syrian security officials accused of killing former Lebanese prime minister Rafik Hariri.

Three of Mr Balousheh's children, aged between six and 10, and an adult passerby were killed, hospital officials said. Another four people were wounded in the shooting in Palestine Street, which is lined with nine schools. Children dropped to the ground or fled screaming during the attack.

Mr Balousheh, a lead interrogator during a crackdown on Hamas, is considered one of the main enemies of the ruling Islamic movement.

At midday, thousands of angry Fatah supporters joined a mass funeral procession for the children that snaked through the city streets. Hundreds of Fatah security officers were in the crowd, firing their rifles in the air.

Mr Balousheh arrived surrounded by bodyguards, wiping his eyes as he fought back tears. Two of his dead sons, still wearing their school uniforms, were carried in the arms of family members. One of the boys had 10 bullet holes in his head, it was reported.

"I have no words. Words stop at the extent of this crime," Mr Balousheh said. "I am a father who has lost his children ... This crime is a part of the terrorism which continues on Palestinian streets."

Fatah activists burned tyres, blocked roads and shut down the city's commercial market in protest. Intelligence officers gathered at the Balousheh home, near the scene of the attack, in a show of support.

"This is an ugly and inhuman crime perpetrated by a bunch of lowlifes," Mr Abbas said at his West Bank office in Ramallah. "We condemn it vehemently."

There was no immediate claim of responsibility, and a Hamas spokesman, Fawzi Barhoum, condemned the attack as an "awful, ugly crime against innocent children". He said the assailants were undermining Palestinian interests by creating chaos and confusion.

An aid to Mr Abbas, the Palestinian negotiator Saeb Erekat, said he was concerned the attack would lead to a large-scale confrontation. "If this continues, it will lead to our worst nightmare, internal fighting," Mr Erekat said.

Gaza has been plagued by factional violence in the past, with dozens killed and hundreds wounded. Earlier this month, Mr Abbas announced that talks on forming a unity government between Hamas and Fatah had broken down. He has also raised the possibility of calling early elections, drawing angry protests from Hamas which said he did not have the authority to dissolve the Hamas-dominated parliament.

Hospital officials said the attack injured four people. The car carrying the children was riddled with bullets.

Balousheh, who was not in the vehicle at the time, was involved in a crackdown on the militant group Hamas 10 years ago. Hamas is now the ruling party in the Palestinian parliament, while the Fatah movement is led by Abbas.

The attack comes amid growing tension between Fatah and Hamas. Fatah, a political party, lost its majority in the Palestinian parliament to Hamas in January elections.

After the attack, handfuls of Fatah supporters gathered in Palestine street, where the attack occurred and which is home to nine schools. "God help us take revenge against the killers," they shouted, according to a report by the Associated Press.

When the shooting occurred, children in the street ran away screaming or fell to the ground to get out of the line of fire.

"I was walking with my young brother, Wael, who is 9, and we just crossed the street in order to take him to the school when shooting took place," Fadwa Nabulsi, 12, told the Associated Press.

"We saw fire coming from one car. We started screaming and children started running. I was crying, and I lost Wael for about half an hour. Then I found him hiding in a falafel shop. I'm trying to find my father to take us back home."

Police tried to calm the children and tried to find their parents. Meanwhile, hundreds of parents went to the Shifa Hospital in Gaza City to find out if their children survived the attack.

Talks between Hamas and Fatah to form a unity government broke down earlier this month, according to Abbas.

Recently, Abbas mentioned the possibility of early elections, but the suggestion prompted angry protests by Hamas supporters who say Abbas is not in a position to dissolve parliament.

Last week I returned from the GA conference in Los Angeles. Once a year, the heads of North America's Jewish federations convene for important discussions on matters of Judaism, pluralism, education, and Israel. This year they devoted much attention to the war and its results. The Iranian threat and its implications were also there. Yet the slogan behind the speakers was the one that drew my attention - the same slogan also used by the Jewish Agency - Peoplehood.

About three years ago I participated in a convention of the "Kol Dor" organization. The group is made up of young Jews from across the world. Those are good, idealistic people in their thirties who seek to develop the connection to Judaism at "eye level."

Because of my familiarity of the state of Jewish communities in the world, I thought that was a wonderful opportunity. Until I realized their objective: Israel is no longer the center, but rather, just another community - at eye level...there are communities in Paris, Sydney, New York, and also in Israel. And now, one of the heads of the Jewish federations told me this week: Israel is not a unique community.

Soros bypassing AIPAC

The term "peoplehood" says in fact that the Jewish people is at the center, rather than the nationalism that was expressed through the establishment of the State of Israel. This attitude is reminiscent of the ultra-Orthodox community's alienation to the State and its institutes. The motive is different, yet the result is similar.

What happened to make part of world Jewry no longer see Israel as the center of Jewish aspirations? We can say, as I was told by Israeli officials, that they are "looking for an excuse to remain in the Diaspora."

Yet we have to understand: Most Jews who live across the ocean do not think they are in the Diaspora. Those of them who are interested have access to Jewish education, synagogues are flourishing in all branches, the communities and community institutions are brimming with activity, and the economic situation is excellent (mostly in developed countries.). From there, they examine the alternative.

The Jews who live abroad view Israel through the international media's prism, and are horrified. They see existential threats on the outside and government and moral chaos on the inside. If that's the country, and if that's its leaders' morality, the British press may indeed be right to hold discussions on Israel's survivability.

This analysis also has practical implications: More and more communities are investing their resources internally - more Jewish education, more local welfare, more community development. Investment in Israel is declining.

It goes up when we have an emergency call-up, and even then an analysis of the donors shows almost all the money comes from the large, traditional donors. Almost no money comes from the communities themselves. An emergency convention of a federation that raised USD 2.8 million drew hundreds of members. The venue was filled to capacity. Zero dollars were raised...

I believe the State of Israel isn't doing enough to boost the connection between us and our brothers overseas. I think there's great willingness there, and by adopting the current approach we're missing out on it. Yet we should be listening to the new voices: Billionaire George Soros is establishing an organization that would compete with the Jewish lobby, AIPAC. Its objective is to tell the Administration in Washington that not every Israeli requests is commensurate with American interests; Not every AIPAC request should be accepted.

Soros, who is known for his blatantly leftist views, could greatly weaken the strategic alliance. He's also undermining the mutual trust between the nations.

Stop apologizing

Where is all this leading and what should we be doing? Our true security does not start in the Defense Ministry; It starts at the Education Ministry, passes through welfare, continues through our connection to communities overseas (that is, the way we present ourselves to the outside), and is expressed during times of security crisis.

Had Israel possessed genuine deterrence, we would not need to use military power. This repair must be undertaken on two fronts: The "What" and the "How." We must revive the belief in Zionism's righteousness in the past and present, with the presentation of a vision for the future - this is the "What".

We must stop apologizing: We came to establish a Jewish state in the Land of Israel, and our right to it is not subjected to a demographic test. The recognition of civil rights for a minority is a must, but personal human rights should not be leading to national rights. The fear of saying clear words does not allow us to present a clear position, and undermines our education and our ability to present ourselves to the outside world.

At the same time, as noted, we should be addressing the "How." The best people stopped going to the public service or to join politics. Regrettably, even some of the best IDF officers quit at early stages. The success of the high-tech industry comes thanks to those who are fed up with politics or the army.

We must present a vision for change in education in relation to the weak and different; boost law enforcement; fight for public integrity - a significant cultural change is required of us. The media, too, would have to change - to encourage and not only to seek controversy.

And the leadership, what about it? In his book, Altneuland, Herzl commented that the politicians would be those who do not desire the post. We have some people like this amongst us, yet today they are hiding and do not wish to enter the mire.

We have a wonderful people that looks like a herd without a shepherd. Only those who are shying away now can bring the change by joining the effort - a dramatic change in our situation in Israel and in the manner in which we are seen by communities abroad. But who has the courage to begin?

A wag once said that there is no Pravda (Truth) in Izvestia (News) and no Izvestia in Pravda. The same can be said of our Pravda (The New York Times) and Izvestia (The Washington Post). Today both party organs ran feature stories trashing Carter using Kenneth Stein's resignation from the Carter Center as the hook. (I was sitting in the airport when this earth-shattering story came on CNN.) But like John Galt, many people must have wondered, Who (the hell) is Kenneth Stein? Stein wrote exactly one scholarly book on the Israel-Palestine conflict more than two decades ago (The Land Question in Palestine, 1984). Even in his heyday, Stein was a nonentity. When Joan Peters's hoax From Time Immemorial was published, I asked his opinion of it. He replied that it had "good points and bad points." Just like the Protocols of the Elders of Zion.

Later Stein wrote a sick essay the main thesis of which was, "the Palestinian Arab community had been significantly prone to dispossession and dislocation before the mass exodus from Palestine began" - so the Zionist ethnic cleansing of Palestine in 1948 was really no big deal ("One Hundred Years of Social Change: The Creation of the Palestinian Refugee Probem," in Laurence Silberstein (ed.), New Perspectives on Israeli History, 1991).

The Pravda ( NYT) story was written by two reporters who seem to have made a beeline for the newsroom from their bat mitzvahs. They quote Stein to the effect that Carter's book is "replete with factual errors, copied materials not cited, superficialities, glaring omissions and simply invented segments". I doubt there's much to this. Most of the background material is Carter's reminiscences. Maybe he copied from Rosalyn's diary (she was his note taker). Then Pravda reports that "a growing chorus of academics...have taken issue with the book". Who do they name? Alan Dershowitz and David Makovsky. Makovsky is resident hack at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, the Israel Lobby's "think"-tank.

Pravda saw no irony in citing Dershowitz's expertise for a story on fabrication, falsification and plagiarism regarding a book on the Israel-Palestine conflict. As always, one can only be awed by the party discipline at our Pravda. It makes one positively wistful for the days when commissars quoted Stalin on linguistics.