"The reasons for the reduction in numbers are a recent cooling of tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures to levels closer to normal and increased chances of El Nino development, which would cause a more disruptive wind shear environment and may result in the last half of the season being less active than originally anticipated," the forecast said.

The forecast would amount to only half of last year's record 28 named storms, but it would bring the 2006 season well-above the historical average of just below 10 named storms, WSI said.

Last year's hurricane season caused billions of dollars in damage and shut down a quarter of U.S. fuel production, causing energy prices to spike to record highs.

"While we still expect a relatively active year, it appears that conditions are in no way similar to last year's record season. In fact, tropical ocean temperatures have cooled quite a bit during the last couple of months and are now only slightly warmer than normal," WSI seasonal forecaster Todd Crawford said.

"Further, it appears that we may be in the very early stages of the next El Nino event, which increases the odds of a weak finish to the year. We now expect a year more similar to 2000 or 2003, both of which had 14 named storms," Crawford added.

Hurricane seasons have historically brought an average of 9.6 named storms, 5.9 hurricanes, and 2.3 major hurricanes of Category Three or stronger.

Category Three storms pack winds of at least 111 miles per hour, with storm surges of about nine to 12 feet above normal, according to the five step Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale rating system.

Last year's Hurricane Wilma was the strongest Atlantic tropical cyclone on record, a Category Five hurricane with winds well in excess of 155 mph at peak intensity.

Only two named storms have formed so far this year, neither of which has developed into a hurricane.

Schwarzenegger told a news conference: "We won't wait for the federal government. We will move forward because we know it's the right thing to do. We will lead on this issue and we will get other western (US) states involved."

He added: "I think there's not great leadership from the federal government when it comes to protecting the environment."

Blair -- who is regularly criticised for being too close to US President George W. Bush -- sidestepped questions about whether he shared those views.

He acknowledged that Britain and the United States had differences over the UN Kyoto Protocol to tackle climate change but said Washington was part of the G8 plus five dialogue to secure a new agreement to replace Kyoto in 2012.

Schwarzenegger restated his belief that "the debate is over" about whether global warming exists while Blair said he was encouraged that all the G8 leaders, including Bush, accepted it "without exception" at the Saint Petersburg summit earlier this month.

What the governor described as "unprecedented", the agreement commits Britain and California commits to "urgent action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and promote low carbon technologies".

As well as sharing best practice, expertise and private sector involvement, Blair said he hoped it could include a possible emissions trading scheme similar to that in the
European Union to push energy suppliers into using "greener", renewable sources.

Blair was whisked to the talks at British oil giant BP's facility from Los Angeles airport in a 12-vehicle-strong convoy, as dozens of police motorcyclists carved a path through the notoriously gridlocked freeway traffic. The talks were hosted by London-based not-for-profit organisation the Climate Group, whose chief executive Steve Howard told reporters: "If you could have bottled the energy in that room you could have solved the problem overnight."

Delegates included BP chief executive John Browne, with delegates including Virgin Atlantic boss Richard Branson, DuPont's Charles Holliday and Google founder Sergey Brin.

Both Britain and California have set out ambitious plans to cut the carbon dioxide emissions widely thought to lead to global warming.

Britain aims to reduce C02 emissions by 60 percent from 1990 levels by 2050 while Schwarzenegger has called for a reduction in emissions to 2000 levels by 2010 and 1990 levels by 2020.

Britain is keen that the estimated 17 trillion dollars of investment in new energy producing facilities between now and 2030 leads to cleaner energy choices.

Blair met Schwarzenegger Sunday at a meeting for senior executives of Rupert Murdoch's News Corp. empire and talked of the need to work closely with energy-hungry emerging economies like China and India.

Three people were electrocuted by power lines that fell during the downpour and four others drowned in storm drains and floods, the private Edhi Welfare Trust said.

Karachi, Pakistan's teeming commercial hub and a major port on the Arabian Sea coast, was brought to a standstill on Monday due to flooded roads.

Pumps were installed in several area to clear the flooding but frequent power cuts caused by the rain's effect on the creaking electricity network hampered the effort.

On Tuesday most of the roads were opened for traffic, but the meteorological department has forecast another spell of widespread rain and isolated heavy showers in Sindh province during the next 24 hours.

The rain also washed away part of a railway bridge Sunday which cut the main line between Karachi and northern Pakistan. Buses were linking Karachi to Hyderabad, 160 kilometres (100 miles) to the northeast.

Torrential rain in Pakistan has killed at least 30 people in the past two weeks and caused widespread damage to crops, roads and triggered landslides.

Areas devastated by last October's South Asian earthquake are among those hit.

Hurricane and climate scientists outside the government have also wrestled with that debate, while many environmental groups are upset with Bush for his rejection of the Kyoto agreement to cut greenhouse gases.

Many climate scientists believe carbon dioxide and other gases trap heat like the glass walls of a greenhouse and cause global warming. Skeptics doubt that humans affect global climate change and say temperature fluctuations have occurred throughout history.

Casting doubt on the view presented to Bush by hurricane center officials, Bill Chameides, chief scientist for the ecology group Environmental Defense, said the president had received an "incomplete" assessment.

"In fact, a number of papers have appeared in the literature over the past year showing a rapid rise in hurricane intensity over the past approximately 30 years and have correlated it with increasing sea surface temperatures and thus global warming," he said in a statement.

Bush came under scathing criticism for the botched federal response to Hurricane Katrina, which hit on August 29 and killed 1,300 and displaced hundreds of thousands.

The White House is eager to show that the president has learned lessons from that disaster and that the federal government has been thorough in preparing for the possibility of harsh storms this year.

June marked the official start of the hurricane season, but the peak period for the storms is between mid-August and mid-October.

Democrats view criticism of Bush's handling of Katrina as a potent issue in November elections in which they hope to wrest control from Republicans of one or both houses of Congress.

The Florida Democratic Party issued a statement calling Bush's visit "PR tour" and accused him of ignoring warnings before Katrina hit.

It said the National Guard in Florida, where Bush's brother Jeb is governor, is "stretched dangerously thin" while homeowners were facing surging insurance rates.

The U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami said at 5 a.m., Chris had sustained winds of 40 mph with higher gusts about 175 miles east of Antigua. The system was moving west-northwest about 9 mph, and strengthening was expected. Winds extended 35 miles outward from the center, forecasters said.

Numerous islands, including Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, St. Kitts and Nevis posted tropical storm warnings, which indicate storm conditions, including heavy seas and rain are expected by Wednesday.

A tropical storm watch was called for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, meaning stormy conditions are possible within 36 hours.

Forecasters have predicted 17 named tropical storms will form in this year's Atlantic hurricane season, which began June 1 and runs through Nov. 30.