Skeptics might wonder if his 1200-word essay was just book publicity hype. Lovelock's scathing our-world-is-doomed article was published about two weeks before Penguin Books (UK) began selling his latest work, The Revenge of Gaia, in bookstores across the British Isles. He did admit within his newspaper commentary, "This article is the most difficult I have written." While interviewing Dr. Lovelock, during our transatlantic phone conversation, the octogenarian sounded sad with his prediction, but still optimistic, despite his ruthless appraisal of what may lay ahead for the rest of this century. "I see the crunch coming as an opportunity to improve ourselves in a way. Who knows? Man may have a better chance when he starts again."

ONLY ABOUT ONE BILLION HUMANS WILL SURVIVE

What does he mean by starting again? "By the end of this century, there is a high probability that the bulk of our species on the planet will be eliminated," the soft-spoken Lovelock gravely remarked. "There may be something, plus or minus, on the order of a billion left." Is there much hope, we asked. "I don't see our current civilization hacking it," he lamented in his response. But, but, what if? "Enormous changes must be made," he stressed. "Society is much too slow in cutting back." He insisted these changes should have started at least 50 years ago. Later he added, as an afterthought, "If Europe and USA were trying to be good and cut back by 30 percent, it's really not going to help much. I don't think the public wants to do it."

In Lovelock's forecast, he envisions, at the end of this century, the last few humans would be forced to rebuild the remnants of our civilization in the Arctic. It won't be as cold up there by then, as you might think. He told us, "Within 25 years, most of the global ice in the Arctic will be gone. You will be able to take a sailboat to the North Pole." How long before we begin to feel these changes? "In my own modeling, I rather think it is an unknown number of years," Lovelock explained. "It may be five years or it may be 30 years." He offered a visual, "Think of it as a rope or a string. Global warming may run up in a straight line or a curve lying a bit loose as the IPCC seems to project."

Lovelock summarized why his forecast is dire and probably irreversible, "Everybody forgets the greatest damage we've done to the earth is not so much the emissions from greenhouse gases, but taking away the natural resistance from the farmland ecosystem. By doing that, we have disabled the planet's ability to regulate itself." Lovelock does not enjoy painting a picture of what earth might look like several decades from now. He wrote in the Independent, in January, "Much of the tropical land mass will become scrub and desert, and will no longer serve for regulation; this adds to the 40 per cent of the Earth's surface we have depleted to feed ourselves." Through his book and in various articles, Lovelock has repeatedly blasted environmentalists who gamble away earth's future by campaigning for renewable energy sources.

That's when we began talking about environmentalists, especially the idealists who claim to be helping preserve the earth. So, we asked this leading environmental scientist what was really wrong with today's environmental movement. Bitterness entered his voice when Lovelock answered, "It's mostly made up of urban people, who know almost nothing about the countryside and still less about the ecosystem." He scoffed, "Their solutions are basically urban-political solutions. They continue to insist on wanting to run their cars on bio fuels. This is one of the maddest ideas of the lot." Lovelock cuts no slack for those championing the cause of bio fuels. He writes in The Revenge of Gaia, "It would require us to burn every year about two to three gigatons of carbon as bio fuel (a gigatons is one thousand million tons). Compare this quantity with our yearly food consumption of half a gigaton tons... We would need the land area of several Earths just to grow fuel."

Does he believe environmentalists are wrecking the environment? "I'm afraid I do," he glumly responded. Because we know there remain several environmental groups who refuse to embrace nuclear energy as a much-needed solution to the planet's energy mix, we asked what he would like to say about them. "They are being very foolish," he quickly shot back. After a pause, he added, "They are living in a dream world." Like the father figure he is, Lovelock is disappointed but tries to remain buoyant. He wrote in his recent book, "My feelings about modern environmentalism are more parallel with those that might pass through the mind of a head-mistress of an inner-city school or the colonel of a newly formed regiment of licentious, and naturally disobedient young men: how the hell can these unruly charges be disciplined and made effective?"

LOVELOCK WANTS THE WORLD TO GO NUCLEAR NOW

The headline of a recent editorial in a Boston newspaper asked, "Are Pro Nuclear People the New Greens?" We discussed that. "It's a bit of an old term, really," he grinned. "Nuclear has been around for more than 40 years at least. I suppose in some countries, like the United Kingdom, you will find some groups are looking more toward nuclear."

Make no mistake in thinking James Lovelock is anything but Pro Nuclear. His quote adorns the top of the front page of the World Nuclear Association's website, "There is no sensible alternative to nuclear power if we are to sustain civilization." Rightly so, the trade association refers to their proponent as the "preeminent world leader in the development of environmental consciousness." In his book, Lovelock writes, "There is no alternative but nuclear fission until fusion energy and sensible forms of renewable energy arrive as a truly long-term provider. Nuclear energy is free of emissions and independent of imports from what will be a disturbed world."

Lovelock briefly analyzes the value and harm of each energy source in The Revenge of Gaia. He has a burning disgust for coal mining, and finds carbon-based fuels inefficient and dangerous, not only to humans but also to earth as a self-regulating system. He has frequently warned that renewables are insufficient to meet our planetary energy needs. In contrast to renewable advocates Amory Lovins or Senator Hillary Clinton, Lovelock sees little value in the immediate future for either solar or wind energy programs, and has harsh words for them, writing, "It will fail and bring discredit both to the greens and to the politicians foolish enough to adopt renewables as a major source of energy before they have been properly developed." He believes their renewable energy solutions might only hasten our civilization's demise.

We believe this feature will move north or northwest during the next 24-48 hours which could put it either in the Bay of Campeche or on the north or northeast coast of the Yucatan by late in the weekend. Once away from the Yucatan this feature might have some chance for further development. Water temperatures just east of the Yucatan are very warm and the waters in the Bay of Campeche are also very warm. So, the main issue will be shear. The shear will diminish over the Bay of Campeche faster than to the north of the Yucatan. So, if the feature moves more to the west or northwest it might have a better chance for organizing sooner than if it were to move due north. Computer models are showing various ideas on this and just about every model now shows some kind of low pressure area near the Yucatan by the end of this weekend. Our current feeling is that if the shear can drop off enough we could have a developing tropical system by the end of the weekend or early next week.

Elsewhere in the tropical Atlantic we are following tropical waves along 23 west, 54 west, 67 west and 78 west. All waves are moving to the west at about 4-6 degrees longitude per day and are to the south of 15 north. The wave along 23 west has the best organzation. But it will have to move across cooler water with strong shear. So, it will have a tough time as it crosses the Atlantic. The large area of African Dust extending from roughly 30 west to just east of the Lesser Antilles continues to thin out. Tropical waves moving within this dust have shown no thunderstorm development due to the drier air aloft created by this swath of dust. This dust area will move into the Lesser Antilles and eastern Caribbean during Friday and over the weekend.