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Thu, 22 Oct 2020
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Bizarro Earth

Reflections on the Coming Ice Age

South Orange, New Jersey - In the Greek myth about Cassandra, she could foresee the future, but no one believed her warnings. Her name is believed to be derived from the words for beauty and the sun.

Any number of solar scientists and others are warning that the Earth is on the brink of a new Ice Age at worst, a mini ice age at best. Dr. Achim Brauer of the German Research Center for Geosciences in Potsdam has concluded that the next Ice Age will come on so swiftly that in barely a year much of the northern hemisphere will be encased in ice and snow.

The last Ice Age lasted 13,000 years. The Little Ice Age from around 1300 to 1850 lasted long enough to transform European society and have a profound affect on the histories of America and France. In England, they went from growing grapes to skating on a completely frozen Thames.

Bizarro Earth

Say Goodbye to Sunspots? The Ice Age Cometh!

Sunspots
© William Livingston/NSO
Weaklings. Without penumbrae, which can be seen in the yellow image, today's sunspots are weakening magnetically.
Scientists studying sunspots for the past 2 decades have concluded that the magnetic field that triggers their formation has been steadily declining. If the current trend continues, by 2016 the sun's face may become spotless and remain that way for decades - a phenomenon that in the 17th century coincided with a prolonged period of cooling on Earth.

Sunspots appear when upwellings of the sun's magnetic field trap ionized plasma - or electrically charged, superheated gas - on the surface. Normally, the gas would release its heat and sink back below the surface, but the magnetic field inhibits this process. From Earth, the relatively cool surface gas looks like a dark blemish on the sun.

Astronomers have been observing and counting sunspots since Galileo began the practice in the early 17th century. From those studies, scientists have long known that the sun goes through an 11-year cycle, in which the number of sunspots spikes during a period called the solar maximum and drops - sometimes to zero - during a time of inactivity called the solar minimum.

Igloo

New Clue to How Last Ice Age Ended

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© Aaron Putnam, University of Maine
Thick ice once filled New Zealand's Irishman Basin.
As the last ice age was ending, about 13,000 years ago, a final blast of cold hit Europe, and for a thousand years or more, it felt like the ice age had returned. But oddly, despite bitter cold winters in the north, Antarctica was heating up. For the two decades since ice core records revealed that Europe was cooling at the same time Antarctica was warming over this thousand-year period, scientists have looked for an explanation.

A new study in Nature brings them a step closer by establishing that New Zealand was also warming, indicating that the deep freeze up north, called the Younger Dryas for the white flower that grows near glaciers, bypassed much of the southern hemisphere.

Igloo

New Ice Age 'to begin in 2014'

Habibullo
© World Net Daily
Habibullo Abdussamatov
Chicago - A new "Little Ice Age" could begin in just four years, predicted Habibullo Abdussamatov, the head of space research at St. Petersburg's Pulkovo Astronomical Observatory in Russia.

Abdussamatov was speaking yesterday at the Heartland Institute's Fourth International Conference on Climate Change in Chicago, which began Sunday and ends today.

The Little Ice Age, which occurred after an era known in scientific circles as the Medieval Warm Period, is typically defined as a period of about 200 years, beginning around 1650 and extending through 1850.

Arrow Down

Arctic ice sets 30 records in April - One for each day - The Ice Age Cometh

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The winter after this one?
The Arctic ice set 30 records in April, one for each day. According to satellite data received by the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency, the Arctic was more ice bound each day of April than it had been any other corresponding day in April since its sensors began tracking the extent of Arctic Ice in mid 2002. Click here to see this tracking on the Japan Aerospace website, run jointly with the International Arctic Research Center.

While Arctic ice has always varied greatly, expanding and contracting during the course of a year and also from year to year and decade to decade, the expansion of the Arctic ice this decade is significant in one respect: It acts to disprove the models that had predicted that the Arctic ice in this century would not recover as it had in previous centuries.

The expansion of the Arctic ice also acts to support a growing number of reports that Earth could be in for a period of global cooling. In one recent example, on April 14 New Scientist in an article entitled "Quiet Sun Puts Europe on Ice" warned its readers as follows: "BRACE yourself for more winters like the last one, northern Europe. Freezing conditions could become more likely: winter temperatures may even plummet to depths last seen at the end of the 17th century, a time known as the Little Ice Age. That's the message from a new study that identifies a compelling link between solar activity and winter temperatures in northern Europe."

Attention

The coming ice age could be just one winter away

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Robert Felix argues convincingly that, rather than runaway heating due to humans' burning fossil fuels, the world is much more likely to face rapid onset of the next ice age in the near future.

"Metres of snow every day for months on end", as seems to have occurred before, would kill everyone in northern countries - Russia, Poland, Germany, Scandinavia, northern Britain, Canada, northern USA - from Moscow to Seattle - in just a few days.

Elementary risk analysis shows that, at the very least, detailed studies of possible counter-measures and even preparations for a "crash program" are URGENTLY needed.

Governments have already spent hundreds of millions, supposedly to avert global warming, yet even the worst-case risk is decades away.

The coming ice age could be just one winter away.

Igloo

Back to Ice Age? Korea Shivering With Unusual Cold

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© Choi Heung-soo
Two people in coats walk down a street in central Seoul, Wednesday, as midday high temperatures stood at 7.8 degrees Celsius in Seoul, the lowest for late April since 1908.
Spring is overdue ― way long overdue. And for office worker Beh Hye-lim, a portable heater is still a must-have item in her office in southern Seoul.

Despite efforts to stay warm, the 27-year-old has been struggling with cold from chilly weather for days.

''Warm rays of sunshine were usual at this time in previous years. But it's literarily freezing,'' she said sneezing.

The entire Korean Peninsula is shivering with a record-low spring chill ― the midday high temperature for Seoul recorded 7.8 degrees Celsius and 6.7 degrees for Daejoen, 170 kilometers south from the Seoul, Wednesday, the lowest for late April since 1908, according to the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA).

The mercury across the country is forecast to do down further Thursday, with some snow expected in mountainous areas in Gangwon Province.

"The unusual chill is likely to continue until mid May,'' the state weather agency said, adding, ''Rain and accompanying wind made people feel much colder.''

The lowest mid-day temperature for late April in Seoul was 10.1 degrees Celsius, set on April 27, 1962.

Meteor

Younger Dryas Glacial Rebound and 'Cosmic Showers': Climate shifted suddenly from present day warmth to Ice Age cold

ice sheet north america
Rod Chilton, author of the most recent (and perhaps only) comprehensive review of Younger Dryas science, was kind to contribute this fine critique of David Morrison's recent paper in Skeptical Enquirer. I am reading Rod's excellent book and look forward to reviewing it soon.
The debate continues as to the cause of the more than 1,000 year-long cold interval known as the Younger Dryas. Falling on the heels of the Last Ice Age, or more correctly immediately after the two warm intervals known as the Bolling and Allerod interstadials, the Younger Dryas onset appears now to have started in as little time as one to three years. The climate shifted that suddenly from near present day warmth to near Ice Age cold. A second important feature to be noted is that apparently most of the planet was affected, and that the teleconnection between various parts of the planet was swift. This suggests strongly that the forcing mechanism resided in the atmosphere, rather than in the Ocean (where a much slower teleconnection would have been evident). The Younger Dryas however was very different from another alleged cosmic encounter, that of the great Cretaceous extinction event of approximately 65 million years ago. At this time, a huge bolide struck the Gulf of Mexico. Likely measuring as much as ten kilometres' across, the demise of the dinosaurs seems to have been assured.

Igloo

Ice Age theories warming up

One of the more interesting results from recent research into climate is that for the past million years or so, the earth's climate has shown a distinct 100,000 cycle of long ice ages punctuated by a brief, warm intergalacials. We are in one of those brief warm periods, an interglacial period that is called the Holocene.

This cycle can be seen in the temperature graph below taken from publicly available Vostok ice core data. The ice cores are very long sections of ice in which ancient climates can be worked out by careful analysis of atomic isotopes of layers of ice, where each wafer thin layer represents a year. Although there are other ways to determine past climatic conditions the Vostok cores (the site is in Antarctica but run by Russian scientists) are remarkable in being a connected track of temperatures of several hundred thousand years.

As you can see climate changes by about 14 degrees C from the top of the interglacial to the bottom of the ice age, but even the 420,000 or so years covered by the Vostok cores is just a moment in earth's geological history. As noted, the 100,000 year cycle has been a feature of climate for about a million years. For two million years before that the cycle was the same except that it was 40,000 years long and temperatures were warmer. The whole three million years, in turn, is part of an ice age phase of the earth in which temperatures have generally been falling. There have also been hot house phases.

Igloo

A Cooling World - The Ice Age Cometh

Comment: The following article sounding out the potential consequences of a 'little ice age' was published in Newsweek on April 28, 1975. It was well understood then that global temperatures were cooling, but scientists frankly admitted that they had no good idea about the mechanism for climate change - deluded warmists and political profiteers had yet to take over climate science and claim the "science is settled."

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There are ominous signs that the Earth's weather patterns have begun to change dramatically and that these changes may portend a drastic decline in food production - with serious political implications for just about every nation on Earth. The drop in food output could begin quite soon, perhaps only 10 years from now. The regions destined to feel its impact are the great wheat-producing lands of Canada and the U.S.S.R. in the North, along with a number of marginally self-sufficient tropical areas - parts of India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Indochina and Indonesia - where the growing season is dependent upon the rains brought by the monsoon.

The evidence in support of these predictions has now begun to accumulate so massively that meteorologists are hard-pressed to keep up with it. In England, farmers have seen their growing season decline by about two weeks since 1950, with a resultant overall loss in grain production estimated at up to 100,000 tons annually. During the same time, the average temperature around the equator has risen by a fraction of a degree - a fraction that in some areas can mean drought and desolation. Last April, in the most devastating outbreak of tornadoes ever recorded, 148 twisters killed more than 300 people and caused half a billion dollars' worth of damage in 13 U.S. states.

To scientists, these seemingly disparate incidents represent the advance signs of fundamental changes in the world's weather. The central fact is that after three quarters of a century of extraordinarily mild conditions, the earth's climate seems to be cooling down. Meteorologists disagree about the cause and extent of the cooling trend, as well as over its specific impact on local weather conditions. But they are almost unanimous in the view that the trend will reduce agricultural productivity for the rest of the century. If the climatic change is as profound as some of the pessimists fear, the resulting famines could be catastrophic. "A major climatic change would force economic and social adjustments on a worldwide scale," warns a recent report by the National Academy of Sciences, "because the global patterns of food production and population that have evolved are implicitly dependent on the climate of the present century."