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Thu, 01 Dec 2022
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Extreme Temperatures


Bizarro Earth

Volcano eruptions on the rise with Solar Minimum

Solar Cycle 24
© Armstrong Economics
We are now in Solar Cycle 25 with peak sunspot activity expected in 2025. Solar Cycle 24 which ended in December 2019, was of average in length, at 11 years. However, it was the 4th-smallest intensity since regular record keeping began with Solar Cycle 1 in 1755. We're now in Solar Cycle 25 and we are still in Solar Minimum conditions at this time. Solar Maximum is predicted to occur midway through this cycle which may come as soon as November 2024 but no later than March 2026, with this ideal peak reaching most likely by July 2025.

Right now, the solar wave is conforming more to our model than that of NASA. The Sun has become far more active than NASA has forecast or expected. NASA is beginning to worry that this Solar Cycle 25 could become the Strongest Cycle Since Records Began. Effectively, in terms of our model terminology, Solar Cycle 25 may be a Panic Cycle. In other words, we appear to be headed into the strongest cycle on record following the weakest cycle. That is high volatility in cycle terminology.

So what does this mean for Markets?

Socrates Forecast
© Armstrong Economics
Since this Solar Minimum may continue into 2024, that appears to be a very major turning point on our global food index. Most of our models on markets are showing Panic Cycles in the 2027-2028 time period. That appears to be more war than nature.

Snowflake

More than 30,000 people without power on British Columbia's South Coast as snow batters the region

Steep hills in Gibsons, B.C., became very slippery on Tuesday as snow pummeled the area, photographer Scott Blackley said.
© Scott Blackley
Steep hills in Gibsons, B.C., became very slippery on Tuesday as snow pummeled the area, photographer Scott Blackley said.
More than 30,000 people on B.C.'s South Coast were without power while a bridge connecting parts of Metro Vancouver was closed Tuesday night as snow continued to hit the region.

B.C. Hydro issued a notice advising residents on Hornby Island and Denman Island to prepare to be without power until Wednesday morning, as ferry cancellations means crews cannot get over to make repairs.

"We plan to have crews take the first available ferry in the morning," B.C. Hydro says on its website.

In an interview with CBC, spokesperson Mora Scott said most of the outages seem to be due to snow weighing down trees, and ultimately, taking out power lines.


Cloud Lightning

Wind turbines trigger 'thundersnow' during Buffalo snowstorm

A mobile Doppler on Wheels unit is surrounded by intense snow from a lake-effect storm over the weekend.
© University of Illinois
A mobile Doppler on Wheels unit is surrounded by intense snow from a lake-effect storm over the weekend.
A recent lake effect snowfall in western New York offered researchers a rare opportunity to gather data about how wind turbines trigger "thundersnow"—or lightning within a snowstorm.

"Lightning damage is an increasing concern for wind power providers," reported the Washington Post, in the wake of the late-November storm that brought a record amount of snow to the east ends of Lake Ontario and Lake Erie. "Like any tall structure, a wind turbine can serve as a strike point for a downward-propagating lightning flash."

But "as turbines grow taller, they appear more likely to trigger upward-propagating flashes that extend from the turbine into a storm, rather than vice versa."



Igloo

Ace forecaster Bastardi: 'Something we used to see in 1970s', Warns of 'spectacular cold'

Risk of a "spectacular cold outbreak "...have countries let their guard down?
Intense Cold Berlin
© Watts Up with That
In his most recent Weatherbell Saturday Summary, veteran meteorologist Joe Bastardi looks ahead at the winter weather over the coming weeks across the globe.

What definitely distinguishes Joe from forecasters I follow here in Germany is that he doesn't rely solely on the so-called ensemble models to make his longer term forecasts, but goes way back into the archives and searches for similar patterns that took place even decades ago (analogues) in order to better discern which way the weather is likely to turn in the weeks ahead.

German forecasters like here , here and here like to put out videos once or even twice daily to report on what the many model ensembles are showing, which is something no one really needs a meteorological license to do. Too often you hear these weather pundits suddenly change their 7+ day forecast, in lockstep with whatever the latest ensemble run crunches out. Yet, most of us know that such forecasts are only valid until the next ensemble run because 7 days out the models can and often make U-turns.

Snowflake Cold

Heavy snow hits northern parts of China as cold wave sweeps in

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Heavy snow hit northwest China's Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region and north China's Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region in recent days as a cold wave gripped large parts of the country.

Snow fell heavily over several days in northern Xinjiang, including Altay Prefecture, Yili Kazakh Autonomous Prefecture and Tacheng Prefecture. The snow, caused by a cold front, led to roadblocks and traffic jams, prompting local departments to initiate emergency responses. Over the past few days, as snow continued to hit Tacheng, more than 80 snow removal vehicles were put into operation.


Comment: Related: Mongolia warns of extreme cold in coming week


Snowflake Cold

Mongolia warns of extreme cold in coming week

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Large parts of Mongolia are expected to see extreme cold from the coming Monday and through the entire week, with expected overnight temperatures of 39 to 47 degrees Celsius below zero, the country's weather agency said Friday.

The weather agency said that heavy snow and snow storms are hitting the country's eastern and western parts, urging the public, especially nomadic herders and drivers, to take extra precautions against possible disasters.

Mongolia's climate is strongly continental, with long and frigid winters. A temperature of minus 25 degrees Celsius is standard during winter. Unstable weather events are also common in the country throughout the year.

Info

New analysis helps reconcile differences between satellites and climate models

Weather Satellite
© NASA
New research provides an improved understanding of the causes of historical changes in climate and increases confidence in model simulations of continued global warming over the 21st century.
Satellite observations and computer simulations are important tools for understanding past changes in Earth's climate and for projecting future changes.

However, satellite observations consistently show less warming than climate model simulations from 1979 to the present, especially in the tropical troposphere (the lowest ~15km of Earth's atmosphere). This difference has raised concerns that models may overstate future temperature changes.

Rather than being an indicator of fundamental model errors, the model-satellite difference can largely be explained by natural fluctuations in Earth's climate and imperfections in climate-model forcing agents, according to new research by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) scientists.

"Natural climate variability appears to have partly masked warming over the satellite era," said Stephen Po-Chedley, a LLNL climate scientist and lead author of a paper appearing in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

The results of the study provide an improved understanding of the causes of historical changes in climate and increase confidence in model simulations of continued global warming over the 21st century.

"Although the Earth is warming as a result of human emissions of carbon dioxide, natural variations in the Earth's climate can temporarily accelerate or diminish this overall warming trend," noted Zachary Labe, a co-author from Princeton University and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory. In addition to modulating the rate of warming, natural fluctuations in climate such as the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation also produce unique patterns of regional surface temperature change.

Snowflake

Heavy snowfall in 3 states of Australia just days before start of summer - 16.5 inches reported

Perisher in alpine NSW recorded a staggering 25cm of snow on the slopes overnight

Perisher in alpine NSW recorded a staggering 25cm of snow on the slopes overnight
With only a few days to go until summer officially starts, residents in several states woke to subzero temperatures and a fresh blanket of snow on the ground.

According to the Bureau of Meteorology, the cold snap is expected to continue in the NSW alpine area on Thursday.

Ski resorts in NSW, Victoria and Tasmania reported their heaviest fall since the end of the snow season in October.

On Wednesday morning, Perisher in alpine NSW, recorded a staggering 25cms of snow had fallen on the slopes overnight.

The latest powder dump takes the total to an eye-popping 42cm of snow over the past week, with summer just a week away.


Comment: Another report from a day earlier: Late heavy spring snowfall in Australia & New Zealand - foot of snow reported


Snowflake

Northern Hemisphere snow cover is 2nd highest in 17 years

Northern hemisphere snow cover.
© National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Northern hemisphere snow cover.
Snow cover is present from Minnesota all the way to Siberia.

The Northern Hemisphere is off to a good start for snow cover this season.

A check of Northern Hemisphere snow cover shows we're at the second-highest snow cover level in the past 17 years, since 2005.

Northern Hemisphere snow cover seasonal data
© NOAA
Northern Hemisphere snow cover seasonal data
You can see on the map below how there's snow cover from Minnesota, all the way north to the Arctic Circle across North America.

Snowflake

Wiarton area in Ontario saw over 120 cms (4 FEET) of snow during multi-day squall event

Wiarton saw over 120 centimetres of snow during a multi-day squall event from Nov. 17-20, 2022.
© Stu Paterson
Wiarton saw over 120 centimetres of snow during a multi-day squall event from Nov. 17-20, 2022.
The multi-day snow event that blanketed most of Bruce and Grey counties left more than 120 centimetres of accumulation in the Wiarton area.

Environment Canada meteorologist Geoff Coulson says the lake effect snow event brought squall activity to most of the region, but the Bruce Peninsula was most likely the hardest hit.

The snow started falling last Thursday evening and intensified at different times over the next few days, before the heaviest stuff tapered off by Sunday evening.

Coulson says the monitoring station at the Wiarton Keppel International Airport recorded somewhere between 120-125 centimetres had fallen during the multi-day weather event.