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The End Holocene?

© Uknown
The Antithesis

You know, in science, there was once this thing we called the Theory of Multiple Working Hypotheses. Anathema (a formal ecclesiastical curse accompanied by excommunication) in modern climate science. So, in juxtaposition to the hypothesis of future global climate disruption from CO2, a scientist might well consider an antithesis or two in order to maintain ones objectivity.

One such antithesis, which happens to be a long running debate in paleoclimate science, concerns the end Holocene. Or just how long the present interglacial will last.

Looking at orbital mechanics and model results, Loutre and Berger (2003) in a landmark paper (meaning a widely quoted and discussed paper) for the time predicted that the current interglacial, the Holocene, might very well last another 50,000 years, particularly if CO2 were factored in. This would make the Holocene the longest lived interglacial since the onset of the Northern Hemisphere Glaciations some 2.8 million years ago. Five of the last 6 interglacials have each lasted about half of a precession cycle. The precession cycle varies from 19-23k years, and we are at the 23kyr part of the range now, making 11,500 years half, which is also the present age of the Holocene.

Which is why this discussion has relevance.

But what about that 6th interglacial, the one that wasn't on the half-precessional "clock". That would be MIS-11 (or the Holsteinian) which according to the most recently published estimate may have lasted on the order of 20-22kyrs, with the longest estimate ranging up to 32kyrs.

Loutre and Berger's 2003 paper was soon followed by another landmark paper by Lisieki and Raymo (Oceanography, 2005), an exhaustive look at 57 globally distributed deep Ocean Drilling Project (and other) cores (Figure 1), which stated:
"Recent research has focused on MIS 11 as a possible analog for the present interglacial [e.g., Loutre and Berger, 2003; EPICA community members, 2004] because both occur during times of low eccentricity. The LR04 age model establishes that MIS 11 spans two precession cycles, with 18O values below 3.6o/oo for 20 kyr, from 398-418 ka. In comparison, stages 9 and 5 remained below 3.6o/oo for 13 and 12 kyr, respectively, and the Holocene interglacial has lasted 11 kyr so far. In the LR04 age model, the average LSR of 29 sites is the same from 398-418 ka as from 250-650 ka; consequently, stage 11 is unlikely to be artificially stretched. However, the June 21 insolation minimum at 65N during MIS 11 is only 489 W/m2, much less pronounced than the present minimum of 474 W/m2. In addition, current insolation values are not predicted to return to the high values of late MIS 11 for another 65 kyr. We propose that this effectively precludes a 'double precession-cycle' interglacial [e.g., Raymo, 1997] in the Holocene without human influence."
Figure 1
Figure 1. The past 5 million years of climate from 57 globally distributed sediment cores. (a general definition of an interglacial since the MPT is the oxygen 18/oxygen 16 isotope ratio must drop to 3.6 parts per mil)

Ice Cube

Despite hot weather water pipes remain frozen in Winnipeg

The high in Winnipeg Tuesday was 26 C, but some are still suffering from what can only be described as a winter hangover.

"It's been an experience. It's been quite an experience and we're just waiting for this experience to end," said Aynsley O'Donovan, a Winnipeg resident who's had frozen pipes for 11 weeks. "It's about time we get our water back."

O'Donovan is among the nearly 500 property owners around the city in a similar situation. Although lucky enough to be hooked up to her neighbour's water, she still has no idea when she'll be using her own water again.

The problem: the frost is still more than a metre deep in places and now the city says all pipes won't be thawed until at least the end of June.

O'Dononvan knows you can't control mother nature but a lack of communication from the city is something that can be fixed.


Summer in Europe? Snow and mist in the Alps during the Giro d'Italia

© Fabio Ferrari/AP PhotoMovistar team cyclists lead the pack as they climb through fog and snow during the 16th stage of the Giro d'Italia cycling race from Ponte di Legno to Val Martello, Italy, May 27, 2014.
A dramatic mountain finish in today's stage of the Giro d'Italia, coupled with brutal weather conditions in the Italian Alps, is prompting some cycling enthusiasts to dub this one of the most epic stages in recent cycling history.

Colombian cyclist Nairo Quintana's win through mist and snow-banked roads in Stage 16 of the 21-day tour propelled him into the overall lead.

Quintana, 24, known for his prodigious climbing skills, finished 8 seconds ahead of Canadian Ryder Hesjedal on the 86-mile route, which included the legendary Gavia and Stelvio climbs.

"It was raining a lot," said Quintana, of team Movistar. "We all knew it was very dangerous."

"I went at my rhythm. I gave everything today. I was climbing well in the end," Quintana said.

Ice Cube

The likely nail in the coffin for the AGW crowd: NOAA forecasts above normal Arctic ice extent for summer 2014

This is interesting. NOAA is forecasting the months of August, September, and October of 2014 to have above normal Arctic Sea ice extent. As readers know, late September is typically the time of the Arctic Sea Ice minimum, and this year the NOAA forecast has it slightly above normal. Here is the NOAA forecast graph:

UPDATE: I no more than finished this post and NOAA had a new updated forecast for May 23rd, added below. (h/t Ric Werme)


LA Times backpedals on crazy talk about Antarctica, glacier melt, sea level rise, and the Los Angeles Airport

© California-blog.comPlanes from Los Angeles International Airport take off over the Pacific Ocean.
Below is a screencap of the "walkback" story headline in the LA Times posted late today.

This morning, about 5:30AM, I sent a short but succinct letter to the Editor of the Los Angeles Times (reproduced below) regarding the statements made yesterday by California Governor Jerry Brown saying that the LAX and SFO airports would "have to be moved" due to effects from posited sea level rise caused by melting of portions of the Western Antarctic Ice Sheet, some 200-800 years in the future. The claim by Governor Brown, was patently ridiculous and I wrote about it here: Governor 'Moonbeam' beclowns himself over sea level rise at LAX airport.


Winterkill strikes Grand Lake near Duluth; thousands of fish found dead

© Dan Wilfond/Minnesota Department of Natural Resources Dead fish of several species are washed up along the shore of Grand Lake on Monday. Thousands of fish in the lake north of Duluth were lost to winterkill, a condition in which dissolved oxygen levels are too low for fish to survive.
The fish began piling up along the western shore of Grand Lake near Duluth on Monday, not long after the ice had gone out. Pushed by a strong east wind, thousands of dead fish washed up in reed beds and the front yards of lakeshore residents.

Perhaps as many as 35,000 fish died, said Dan Wilfond, fisheries specialist for the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources at French River, although he cautioned that that was a rough estimate.

The fish, victims of winterkill -- low oxygen levels -- included sunfish, crappies, walleyes, northern pike and largemouth bass, Wilfond said.

Grand Lake, a 1,600-acre lake between Saginaw and Twig, is popular with anglers.

"It was disheartening," Wilfond said. "It was a pretty severe kill."

Tim Goeman, DNR regional fisheries supervisor at Grand Rapids, said he was not aware of other lakes across northeastern Minnesota that have suffered winterkill.


Snow in May in Chicago: This is not a joke - it's not global warming either

© Megan Schmitt
Residents of the north suburbs woke up to light snow on Friday, the first time it has snowed in Chicago in May in nearly 10 years.

Snow was falling in Hoffman Estates and Deerfield around 7:30 a.m. Snow was also reported on cars in the western suburbs.

The last time is snowed in May was back on May 5, 2005, according to CBS 2′s Megan Glaros.

Any snow is unlikely to accumulate, and temperatures will rise to around 50 degrees.

Although there was snow on the ground farther to the west, between Rockford and Sycamore.

Megan Schmit sent photos during her commute to Sycamore.

Red Flag

Tens of thousands of reindeer die of extreme weather in Russia's north

More than 60,000 reindeer died of starvation over winter and spring in the far northern Yamal-Nenets autonomous district, the regional governor's office said.

The high mortality rate is likely to have been caused by extreme weather conditions in the Arctic region, such as heavy rain and snow, which made it more difficult for the deer to feed themselves, the statement said, Interfax reported Tuesday.

A operation is now underway to herd the reindeers to greener pastures, though many of the animals may be too weak to travel, the statement said.

Ice Cube

Antarctic sea ice at record levels for April and it continues in May

Antarctic sea ice has expanded to record levels for April, increasing by more than 110,000sq km a day last month to nine million square kilometres.

Antarctic ice
© National Snow and Ice Data Center
The National Snow and Ice Data Centre said the rapid expansion had continued into May and the seasonal cover was now bigger than the record "by a significant margin''.
"This exceeds the past record for the satellite era by about 320,000sq km, which was set in April 2008,'' the centre said.

Comment: To put it in perspective. The Antarctic grew 1257 Manhattans every day of April. So next time you hear that an iceberg the size of Manhattan has fallen into the ocean in the Antarctic and it is all due to global warming, then think twice whether such a puny little bit of ice makes a difference in the bigger picture and whether it really is cause for a global warming headline.

Cloud Grey

Climate change increasing rapidly: Southern Ocean wind blows hardest in 1,000 years

Antarctica winds
Antarctica winds
Winds in the wild Southern Ocean are blowing at their strongest in a millennia as climate change shifts weather patterns, leaving Antarctica colder and Australia facing more droughts, a study showed Monday.

Rising carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere were strengthening the winds, already dubbed the "Roaring Forties" for their ferocity, and pushing them further south towards Antarctica, researchers from the Australian National University (ANU) said.

"The Southern Ocean winds are now stronger than at any other time in the past 1,000 years," said the study's lead researcher Nerilie Abram of an ocean notorious for having some of the fiercest winds and largest waves on the planet.

"The strengthening of these winds has been particularly prominent over the past 70 years, and by combining our observations with climate models we can clearly link this to rising greenhouse gas levels."

The new research, which was published in the Nature Climate Change journal, explains why Antarctica is not warming as much as other continents.

Comment: Note that the trade winds around the equator are also increasing.