The NY chart does not take into account pull-forward effect. You are using net deaths - wherein lockdown deaths and pull-forward deficit cancel each other.

Lockdown states on left. No lockdown on right. Much more definitive inference than mild inductive single state net deaths. pic.twitter.com/gRr855yT3G

— Ethical Skeptic ☀ (@EthicalSkeptic) October 10, 2020