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As 2022 ends, the yearly death totals are rolled out by various media outlets as a source of concern.
The Times reports 1,000 excess deaths each week as the NHS buckles, with 656,735 U.K. deaths in the last year. Using the pre-Covid five-year average, it notes,
"50,000 more people died last year than normal".The BBC
reported that 9% more people died in 2022 than in 2019.
Within hours of the reports of the deaths,
they concluded the "data indicates pandemic effects on health and NHS pressures are among the leading explanations". No need then for painstaking epidemiology, assessment of confounders and determination of causation as opposed to an association.
The BBC has the answer. But does it?One of its explanations is the
"lasting effect of pandemic". Pointing to a "
number of
studies that found
people are more likely to have heart problems and strokes".All three studies cited are retrospective. The first is a
review of those admitted to the hospital in 2020 (mean follow-up 140 days). The second is a
review from 2020, comparing U.S. individuals in the Veteran Affairs program who were predominately white males with a positive Covid test with matched controls from 2017. The third was much the same,
reporting excess risk in the four months after a positive test.
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