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Mon, 17 Jan 2022
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David Archibald's elegant illustration of how late and weak solar cycle 24 is proving

weak solar cycles dalton minimum
© unknown

There is another way of looking at solar cycles.

Solar cycles actually start with the magnetic reversal near the peak of the previous cycle. The sunspots take seven years to surface and become visible. Almost all sunspot cycles tend to be about 18.5 years long, measured from the peak of the previous cycle.

The above graph compares the average of three cycles, 21 to 23, from the late 20th century with three, 14 to 16, from the late 19th century (which had much colder weather). Also included is Solar Cycle 5, the first half of the Dalton Minimum.

Sun

New Solar Cycle Prediction: Fewer Sunspots, But Not Necessarily Less Activity (who knows?)

Sun image from STEREO satellites
© NASA

An international panel of experts has released a new prediction for the next solar cycle, stating that Solar Cycle 24 will peak in May 2013 with a below-average number of sunspots. Led by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and sponsored by NASA, the panel includes a dozen members from nine different government and academic institutions. Their forecast sets the stage for at least another year of mostly quiet conditions before solar activity resumes in earnest.

"If our prediction is correct, Solar Cycle 24 will have a peak sunspot number of 90, the lowest of any cycle since 1928 when Solar Cycle 16 peaked at 78," says panel chairman Doug Biesecker of the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder, Colo.

It is tempting to describe such a cycle as "weak" or "mild," but that could give the wrong impression. "Even a below-average cycle is capable of producing severe space weather," says Biesecker. "The great geomagnetic storm of 1859, for instance, occurred during a solar cycle of about the same size we're predicting for 2013."

Comment: Commentary from Icecap.us on this article:

Other forecasters (Clilverd and Archibald) have an even quieter cycle like that of the s0-called Dalton Minimum with a maximum nearer 40. NCAR's Dikpati is still holding out for an active cycle 24. The last few cycles including this ultralong cycle 23 (larger image here) mimics the cycles of the late 1700s and early 1800s much as Clilverd and Archibald showed, leading up to the Dalton Minimum, the age of Dickens with winter snows in London (hmmm).
Solar Cycle length
© unknown



Better Earth

Science a slave to expediency

The notion that human activity has an alarming influence on climate is based on Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports and spurious claims about a scientific consensus.

Independent scientists who question these claims are accused of being in the pay of the energy industry and of believing that the notion of man-made climate change is a conspiracy.

To the best of my knowledge, no climate conspiracy has ever existed. But another force has driven science into its present parlous state where the output of computer software is held in higher regard than observational data, where marketing spin is more important than fact and evidence, and where a trenchant defence of the notion of man-made global warming is seen as paramount.

Sun

Spotless Sun, new 'Baby Grand' milestone has arrived

current solar minimum
© unknown
Plot of Cycle 23 to 24 sunspot numbers in an 11 year window.

No we aren't talking pianos, but Grand Solar Minimums. Today a new milestone was reached. As you can see below, we've been leading up to it for a few years.

A typical solar minimum lasts 485 days, based on an average of the last 10 solar minima. As of today we are at 638 spotless days in the current minimum. Also as of today, May 27th, 2009, there were no sunspots on 120 of this year's (2009) 147 days to date (82%).

Paul Stanko writes:
Our spotless day count just reached 638.

What is so special about 638? We just overtook the original solar cycle, #1, so now the only cycles above this are: cycles of the Maunder minimum, cycles 5 to 7 (Dalton minimum), and cycles 10 + 12 to 15 (unnamed minimum).

Since the last one is unnamed, I've nicknamed it the "Baby Grand Minimum", in much the same way that you can have a baby grand piano. We would now seem to have reached the same stature for this minimum. It will be interesting to see just how much longer deep minimum goes on.

Sun

Scientists proclaim climate change is natural

Scientists proclaim climate change is natural

As the Rudd government geared up its push for a CO2 cap-and-trade emissions trading scheme (ETS), which would annihilate what's left of Australia's collapsing physical economy, a public symposium last Sunday heard evidence from several leading Australian scientists that climate change is a natural phenomenon.

The symposium, ignored by the lying mainstream media, was held at Monash University and convened by Emeritus Professor Lance Endersbee. Several scientists identified hard evidence that severe cooling is the biggest climate challenge that we face - and its cause is entirely natural.

Bizarro Earth

Earthquake Magnitude 4.9 - Off Coast of Jalisco, Mexico

Image
© US Geological Survey
Date-Time Thursday, May 28, 2009 at 21:32:25 UTC

Thursday, May 28, 2009 at 02:32:25 PM at epicenter

Location 18.335°N, 106.437°W

Depth 10 km (6.2 miles) set by location program

Region OFF THE COAST OF JALISCO, MEXICO

Distances 235 km (145 miles) WSW of Manzanillo, Colima, Mexico

270 km (165 miles) SW of Autlan, Jalisco, Mexico

280 km (175 miles) SSW of Puerto Vallarta, Jalisco, Mexico

775 km (480 miles) W of MEXICO CITY, D.F., Mexico

Key

Skeptical French Scientist Rebukes Climate Critics: 'We are not in the Soviet Union, we can contest a scientific thesis'

hammer siclke
© unknown

Washington, DC: Controversy continues to swirl around French President Nicolas Sarkozy's possible appointment of renowned geophysicist and former socialist party leader Dr. Claude Allegre - France's most outspoken global warming skeptic -- as the new super-ministry of industry and innovation.

Just one day after news reports revealed Sarkozy is close to appointing Allegre to a high government post, Allegre has fired back at critics upset that he has embraced a skeptical view of man-made global warming fears.

"We are not in the Soviet Union, we can contest a scientific thesis," Allegre retorted, according to a May 28, 2009 article in Nature's blog. (See: Claude Allegre back in French government? - May 28, 2009)

Nature's Blog Excerpt: Allegre has responded to such criticisms by saying that he recognizes the reality of climate change but had doubts as to its causes "given that the climate is a complex phenomenon," and was worried that the challenges facing the planet might lead to decreases in economic growth and threaten the free market. Questioned by the newspaper Le Monde, Allegre said: "I've nothing to say. I'm in my lab writing a scientific article," describing the current controversy as nothing more than "agitation." "We are not in the Soviet Union," he added with respect to his opinions on climate change, "we can contest a scientific thesis." [End Nature Blog excerpt]

Heart

Et Tu, Francois? Skeptical Scientist Who Mocked Gore's Nobel Prize as 'Political Gimmick' May Be Appointed to French Super-Ministry Post

Washington, DC: French President Nicolas Sarkozy's appears ready to appoint renowned geophysicist and former socialist party leader Dr. Claude Allegre - France's most outspoken global warming skeptic -- as the new super-ministry of industry and innovation.

If Allegre, who has mocked former Vice President Al Gore's Nobel Prize as "a political gimmick," is chosen for the appointment, it would send political earthquakes through Europe and the rest of the world. Allegre is a former believer in man-made global warming who reversed his views in recent years to become one of the most vocal dissenters of man-made global warming fears. Climate Depot first reported on Allegre's possible appointment to a government post on April 16, 2009. (See also: Sarkozy in climate row over reshuffle - Financial Times - May 27, 2009)

Allegre, a former French Socialist Party leader and a member of both the French and U.S. Academies of Science, was one of the first scientists to sound global warming fears 20 years ago, but he now says the cause of climate change is "unknown." Allegre has authored more than 100 scientific articles, written 11 books, and received numerous scientific awards including the Goldschmidt Medal from the Geochemical Society of the United States.

Allegre's possible appointment has 'drawn strong protests' from environmentalists, the Financial Times reported on May 27, 2009.

"Putting him in charge of scientific research would be tantamount to 'giving the finger to scientists', said Nicolas Hulot, France's best-known environmental activist," told the Financial Times.

But Allegre hit back at his environmental critics and accused them of "lies and distortions" about his record and beliefs. "As a scientist and citizen, I, unlike others, do not want environmentalism to accentuate the crisis or make the least well-off suffer more," Allegre said according to the May 27 Financial Times article.

Phoenix

Global warming advocates shifting goalposts

climate catastrophe
© unknown

For an Italian documentary on climate I was asked, "Why do you think we don't all share the same theory about global warming, particularly so far as concerns its causes?"

The simple answer is because there is no general climate theory.

As usual the proper answer is complicated. It is a very good question because it speaks directly to a major issue in the public and scientific debate about climate. It was the subject of my recent speech for the Friends of Science in Calgary. The topic was "Recent Theoretical and Observational Evidence for a Cooling Atmosphere." This was not my choice because it is too esoteric for a general audience. I spoke to the issue, but in the much broader context of the significance of the new evidence and current cooling. It helps understand how proponents of global warming due to human CO2 hypothesis are able to move the goalposts so easily from global warming to climate change to climate chaos and climate catastrophe.

Better Earth

The Great Global Warming Deception

Sargasso Sea temperatures
© unknown

The Oregon Institute of Science and Medicine has a video/slideshow presentation which shows once gain that worshippers of the religion of global warming are full of hot air.

Al Gore and fellow socialists at the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) - a political organization, not a scientific one - and elsewhere desperately want people to believe the earth is going through unprecedented warming...and that it's all the fault of those evil coal-burning, SUV-driving capitalists.

Unfortunately for them, this crazy idea not only doesn't meet the test of science, it doesn't even pass the smell-test. As a commenter at Free Republic said, ordinary folk can recognize bull feces by the smell and don't need the recipe. But thanks to information such as this report from Arthur B. Robinson, Noah E. Robinson and Willie Soon, those who need the recipe to see the light have it.