Earth ChangesS


Igloo

Antarctic warming; Steig et al - falsified

Anthony Watts
Watts Up With That
Mon, 01 Jun 2009 00:24 UTC
Spin Art
© unknownSmearing around data or paint - the results are similar.

Jeff Id of The Air Vent emailed me today inviting me to repost Ryan O's latest work on statistical evaluation of the Steig et al "Antarctica is warming" paper ( Nature, Jan 22, 2009) I thought long and hard about the title, especially after reviewing the previous work from Ryan O we posted on WUWT where the paper was dealt a serious blow to "robustness". After reading this latest statistical analysis, I think it is fair to conclude that the paper's premise has been falsified.

Ryan O, in his conclusion, is a bit more gracious:
I am perfectly comfortable saying that Steig's reconstruction is not a faithful representation of Antarctic temperatures over the past 50 years and that ours is closer to the mark.
Not only that, Ryan O did a more complete job of the reconstruction than Steig et al did, he mentions this in comments at The Air Vent:
Steig only used 42 stations to perform his reconstruction. I used 98, since I included AWS stations.
The AWS stations have their problems, such as periods of warmer temperatures due to being buried in snow, but even when using this data, Ryan O's analysis still comes out with less warming than the original Steig et al paper.

Antarctica as a whole is not warming, the Antarctic peninsula is, which is significantly removed climatically from the main continent.
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Sun

New Cycle 24 spots emerging

Anthony Watts
Watts Up With That
Sun, 31 May 2009 22:05 UTC
Michael Ronayne writes:
To the right of the burned out pixel, a second Sunspot group, with two spots, is forming which can be seen in this image:
Cycle 24 sun specks
© SOHO (ESA & NASA)
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Evil Rays

'Report is worse than fiction, it is a lie!' -- Climate expert rejects claim of 300,000 climate deaths as 'methodological embarrassment' - 'Absurd'

Marc Morano
Climate Depot
Fri, 29 May 2009 21:01 UTC
Roger Pielke Jr. May 29, 2009 Excerpt: The new report issued by the Global Humanitarian Forum which makes the absurd claim that 315,000 deaths a year can be attributed to the effects of rising greenhouse gas concentrations. Roger A. Pielke Jr., a political scientist at the University of Colorado, Boulder, who studies disaster trends, said the forum's report was "a methodological embarrassment" because there was no way to distinguish deaths or economic losses related to human-driven global warming amid the much larger losses resulting from the growth in populations and economic development in vulnerable regions. [...]

It is a methodological embarrassment and poster child for how to lie with statistics. The report will harm the cause for action on both climate change and disasters because it is so deeply flawed. [...]

The report is worse than fiction, it is a lie. These are strong words I know. [...] Let me first start by noting that the same group that did the analysis for the UN, the Geo-Risks group in Munich Re, earlier this year published a peer-reviewed paper arguing that the signal of human-caused climate change could not presently be seen in the loss data on disasters.

For Pielke Jr.'s complete analysis see here.
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Bulb

315,000 deaths due to Global Warming: A Methodological Embarassment

Roger Pielke, Jr.
Prometheus
Fri, 29 May 2009 21:06 UTC
I am quoted in today's New York Times on a new report issued by the Global Humanitarian Forum which makes the absurd claim that 315,000 deaths a year can be attributed to the effects of rising greenhouse gas concentrations. Here is what I said:
Roger A. Pielke Jr., a political scientist at the University of Colorado, Boulder, who studies disaster trends, said the forum's report was "a methodological embarrassment" because there was no way to distinguish deaths or economic losses related to human-driven global warming amid the much larger losses resulting from the growth in populations and economic development in vulnerable regions. Dr. Pielke said that "climate change is an important problem requiring our utmost attention." But the report, he said, "will harm the cause for action on both climate change and disasters because it is so deeply flawed."
Strong comments I know. Shoddy work on disasters and climate change is the norm, unfortunately, and something I've been closely following for well over a decade. I have no illusions that this latest concoction will be repeatedly cited regardless.

Below are my comments to the New York Times upon reading the report (cleaned up and formatted). Caution, strong views ahead.
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Attention

Global warming terrorists declare warming must stay below 2C or world faces ruin

Mark Henderson
Times Online
Thu, 28 May 2009 05:09 UTC
World carbon emissions must start to decline in only six years if humanity is to stand a chance of preventing dangerous global warming, a group of 20 Nobel prize-winning scientists, economists and writers declared today.

The United Nations climate summit in Copenhagen in December must agree to halve greenhouse-gas emissions by 2050 to stop temperatures from increasing by more than 2C (3.6F), the St James's Palace Nobel Laureate Symposium concluded.

While even a 2C temperature rise will have adverse consequences, a bigger increase would create "unmanageable climate risks", according to the St James's Palace memorandum, signed today by 20 Nobel laureates in physics, chemistry, economics, peace and literature.

Comment: The Global Warming Propaganda is ramping up daily. The political machine and psychological marketers now control Climate Science. Every aspect of daily life is coming under worldwide control.

Scientists, climate scientists, solar scientists, statistical analysts, physicists, you name it, all must tow the political line regardless of what their own research tells them, regardless of what common sense tells them, regardless of objective reality.

There are thousands and thousands of scientists and their research and data and analysis that finds the global warming hypothesis falsified. They are called deniers, a dirty derogatory slanderous term that dehumanizes them by equating them with the familiar term used for Nazi Holocaust deniers. A clever move by the psychological marketing team running the show. And now an all too cooperative media commonly uses this disgusting term to belittle and taunt and lower the image of these scientists in the eyes of the world. Why is that okay? Why is it accepted and even encouraged?

Why are scientists everywhere skeptical?

Ian Plimer's recent article here, is a good example explaining just some of the issues as to why skepticism and disgust abounds in the scientific community.

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Mr. Potato

Propaganda: Burping of the lambs blows roast off menu

Jonathan Leake
Times Online
Sun, 24 May 2009 20:11 UTC
Give up lamb roasts and save the planet. Government advisers are developing menus to combat climate change by cutting out "high carbon" food such as meat from sheep, whose burping poses a serious threat to the environment.

Out will go kebabs, greenhouse tomatoes and alcohol. Instead, diners will be encouraged to consume more potatoes and seasonal vegetables, as well as pork and chicken, which generate fewer carbon emissions.

"Changing our lifestyles, including our diets, is going to be one of the crucial elements in cutting carbon emissions," said David Kennedy, chief executive of the Committee on Climate Change.

Kennedy has stopped eating his favourite doner kebabs because they contain lamb.

Comment: The atmosphere contains 800 billion tonnes of carbon as CO2, with some where between 96 and 99+ percent of it natural of which man has no influence over whatsoever. This article and the insanity of the promoters of global warming caused by man-made CO2 just goes to show how ridiculous humans can be.

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Cult

Propaganda: Climate change causes 315,000 deaths a year-report

Megan Rowling
Forexyard
Thu, 28 May 2009 19:53 UTC
London - Climate change kills about 315,000 people a year through hunger, sickness and weather disasters, and the annual death toll is expected to rise to half a million by 2030, a report said on Friday.

The study, commissioned by the Geneva-based Global Humanitarian Forum (GHF), estimates that climate change seriously affects 325 million people every year, a number that will more than double in 20 years to 10 percent of the world's population (now about 6.7 billion).

Economic losses due to global warming amount to over $125 billion annually -- more than the flow of aid from rich to poor nations -- and are expected to rise to $340 billion each year by 2030, according to the report.

"Climate change is the greatest emerging humanitarian challenge of our time, causing suffering to hundreds of millions of people worldwide," Kofi Annan, former U.N. secretary-general and GHF president, said in a statement.

"The first hit and worst affected are the world's poorest groups, and yet they have done least to cause the problem."

Comment: Expect more and more extreme and outlandish pronouncements as the Conference of the Parties (COP15) nears in Copenhagen in December 2009.

Expect more and more marginalization, defamation, vitriolic ad hominem attacks directed at scientists not towing the line of man-made CO2 global warming.

This is one of the few things you can count on in a psychologically compromised world.

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Fish

Rare Pink Dolphin Turns Heads Off Louisiana


msnbc
Wed, 27 May 2009 19:32 UTC
Image
© Stephen Fournet / APA rare albino dolphin in the lower Calcasieu Ship Channel south of Lake Charles, La.
New Orleans - What's pink, has red eyes and leaps around a Louisiana shipping channel long enough for you to believe your eyes? A rare albino bottlenose dolphin.

Bottlenose dolphins are common in the lower Calcasieu Ship Channel, feeding in the deep water and riding on top of boats' waves. And when the pink one jumps amid four dark gray dolphins, it's easy to spot.

The albino is just the 14th reported worldwide, and the third in the Gulf of Mexico, according to biologist Dagmar Fertl of Plano, Texas.
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Sun

Solar cycle computer model with 98 percent forecasting accuracy a complete failure

Anthony Watts
Watts Up With That
Sun, 31 May 2009 05:40 UTC
This is an official NCAR News Release (National Center for Atmospheric Research) Apparently, they have solar forecasting techniques down to a "science", as boldly demonstrated in this press release. - Anthony

Scientists Issue Unprecedented Forecast of Next Sunspot Cycle

Boulder - The next sunspot cycle will be 30-50% stronger than the last one and begin as much as a year late, according to a breakthrough forecast using a computer model of solar dynamics developed by scientists at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). Predicting the Sun's cycles accurately, years in advance, will help societies plan for active bouts of solar storms, which can slow satellite orbits, disrupt communications, and bring down power systems.

The scientists have confidence in the forecast because, in a series of test runs, the newly developed model simulated the strength of the past eight solar cycles with more than 98% accuracy. The forecasts are generated, in part, by tracking the subsurface movements of the sunspot remnants of the previous two solar cycles. The team is publishing its forecast in the current issue of Geophysical Research Letters.

"Our model has demonstrated the necessary skill to be used as a forecasting tool," says NCAR scientist Mausumi Dikpati, the leader of the forecast team at NCAR's High Altitude Observatory that also includes Peter Gilman and Giuliana de Toma.

Understanding the cycles

The Sun goes through approximately 11-year cycles, from peak storm activity to quiet and back again. Solar scientists have tracked them for some time without being able to predict their relative intensity or timing.

Comment: Computer models with a 98% accuracy fail to forecast reality. The IPCC global warming computer models cannot reproduce any historical climatic history. The IPCC computer models cannot model oceanic thermal oscillations, volcanic activity, total solar irradiance, cosmic radiation flux, cloud cover, or much else that is vital to understanding climate science, forward or backward in time. Yet the global psychological machine is ready to impose controls on the entire population of the world that may kill millions and millions of people by denying them heat and fuel and food and jobs.

Why are these intimidators not equated as terrorists? They incite catastrophic fear in the population. They bully and intimidate other scientists. They demean and slander. They spin derogatory language to dehumanize those who try to speak up and show their reasoning is falsifiable if not down right lies in some cases. And the media such as is displayed in the above article is their willing accomplice, their tool.

We live in an insane world run by psychologically compromised minds.

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Ark

Cooler decades ahead, researcher says

Ned Rozell
Site News
Thu, 28 May 2009 03:38 UTC
Syun-Ichi Akasofu
© Ned RozellSyun-Ichi Akasofu pictured at the
Elvey Auditorium May 22, 2009.

Syun-Ichi Akasofu has a forecast for the average global temperature during the next few decades-cool.

Akasofu, the former director of the University of Alaska Fairbanks' Geophysical Institute and International Arctic Research Center, was known as an aurora expert for most of his career. Now, people are citing his opinions on global warming. Rush Limbaugh and syndicated columnist Cal Thomas recently mentioned Akasofu, who thinks it's likely that the planet will cool down until about 2030, and then warm slightly thereafter. That notion is contrary to the prediction of steadily increasing warmth made by members of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Unlike those scientists, Akasofu thinks natural forces affect climate much more than carbon dioxide, which warms the globe by trapping heat.
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