Abstracts of American Geophysical Union annual meeting, San Francisco Dec., 2008Global, cyclic, decadal, climate patterns can be traced over the past millennium in glacier fluctuations, oxygen isotope ratios in ice cores, sea surface temperatures, and historic observations. The recurring climate cycles clearly show that natural climatic warming and cooling have occurred many times, long before increases in anthropogenic atmospheric CO2 levels. The Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age are well known examples of such climate changes, but in addition, at least 23 periods of climatic warming and cooling have occurred in the past 500 years. Each period of warming or cooling lasted about 25-30 years (average 27 years). Two cycles of global warming and two of global cooling have occurred during the past century, and the global cooling that has occurred since 1998 is exactly in phase with the long term pattern. Global cooling occurred from 1880 to ~1915; global warming occurred from ~1915 to ~1945; global cooling occurred from ~1945-1977;, global warming occurred from 1977 to 1998; and global cooling has occurred since 1998. All of these global climate changes show exceptionally good correlation with solar variation since the Little Ice Age 400 years ago.
Solar Influence on Recurring Global, Decadal, Climate Cycles Recorded by Glacial Fluctuations, Ice Cores, Sea Surface Temperatures, and Historic Measurements Over the Past Millennium
Easterbrook, Don J., Dept. of Geology, Western Washington University, Bellingham, WA 98225
Earth Changes
With the number of sunspotless days reaching 16 so far this month, we have now exceeded 1912 as the 2nd quietest sun year since 1900. Only 1913 ranked higher with 311 days. With 12 more days this month as of this writing, we could reach as high as 266 days. Note that 2007 also ranked in the top 10.
This is the month by month comparisons of sunspotless days this solar minimum (red) through November and the last minimum in the mid 1990s (blue).
© IceCap
Sunspotless days 2008. Second fewest sunspots in over 100 years.
Sunspotless days 2008. Second fewest sunspots in over 100 years.
This is the month by month comparisons of sunspotless days this solar minimum (red) through November and the last minimum in the mid 1990s (blue).
© IceCap
A magnitude 5.9 quake struck off Indonesia's Sumatra island, the U.S. Geological Survey reported on Tuesday.
The shallow quake, only 6.2 miles (10 km) deep, was centered 85 miles (135 km) west of Bengkulu on Sumatra and hit at 2:49 a.m. on Wednesday (1949 GMT on Tuesday).
There was no immediate tsunami warning and the quake was unlikely to trigger one at that magnitude.
The shallow quake, only 6.2 miles (10 km) deep, was centered 85 miles (135 km) west of Bengkulu on Sumatra and hit at 2:49 a.m. on Wednesday (1949 GMT on Tuesday).
There was no immediate tsunami warning and the quake was unlikely to trigger one at that magnitude.
Authorities of Kamchatka Territory and Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky City must get ready for a big swell of eruption of the 
located at the 30 km distance from the city and its airport, which is the major air gateway of Kamchatka.
Alexei Ozerov, the leading scientist of the Volcanology and Seismology Institute of Far Eastern Branch of the Russian Academy of Science has recently reported about this to RIA Novosti.
Alexei Ozerov, the leading scientist of the Volcanology and Seismology Institute of Far Eastern Branch of the Russian Academy of Science has recently reported about this to RIA Novosti.
© R.L. Christiansen/USGS
The Yellowstone Caldera. The best estimate of the caldera rim is shown salmon. White arrows show interpreted magma migration paths. The red symbols mark volcanic centers that erupted after the caldera formed 640,000 years ago. The areas of known past or present thermal activity are colored yellow.
The Yellowstone Caldera. The best estimate of the caldera rim is shown salmon. White arrows show interpreted magma migration paths. The red symbols mark volcanic centers that erupted after the caldera formed 640,000 years ago. The areas of known past or present thermal activity are colored yellow.
Yellowstone National Park is the site of North America's largest volcanic field, which is produced by a hotspot, or gigantic plume of hot, molten rock, that begins at least 400 miles (643 kilometers) beneath Earth's surface and rises to 30 miles (48 kilometers) underground, where it widens to about 300 miles across.
Occasionally, blobs of magma break away from the top of this plume and rise up to resupply the magma chamber beneath the park's "caldera," a 40-mile by 25-mile bowl-like depression and volcanic leftover whose walls you can see in the northwest part of the park.
These rising blobs of magma can sometimes push on the caldera floor, causing it to rise. Scientists monitoring the Yellowstone caldera think that's exactly what has caused the caldera floor to rise by almost 3 inches (7 centimeters) per year over the past three years - more than three times faster than it has more typically risen since observations began in 1923.
"Our best evidence is that the crustal magma chamber is filling with molten rock," said study leader Robert Smith, a seismologist at the University of Utah. "But we have no idea how long this process goes on before there either is an eruption or the inflow of molten rock stops and the caldera deflates again."
Earthquake List for Map Yellowstone
Update time = Tue Dec 30 17:00:03 UTC 2008
Here are the earthquakes in the Yellowstone area, most recent at the top.
(Some early events may be obscured by later ones.)
MAG UTC DATE-TIME y/m/d h:m:s LAT deg LON deg DEPTH km LOCATION
MAP 2.4 2008/12/30 11:59:07 44.523 -110.401 0.3 58 km ( 36 mi) ESE of West Yellowstone, MT
MAP 1.0 2008/12/30 02:00:37 44.553 -110.341 2.2 61 km ( 38 mi) SSW of Cooke City-Silver Gate, MT
MAP 1.0 2008/12/30 01:51:00 44.517 -110.354 1.8 62 km ( 38 mi) ESE of West Yellowstone, MT
MAP 1.3 2008/12/30 01:47:56 44.527 -110.381 1.1 59 km ( 37 mi) ESE of West Yellowstone, MT
MAP 2.3 2008/12/30 01:47:26 44.532 -110.359 2.0 61 km ( 38 mi) ESE of West Yellowstone, MT
Update time = Tue Dec 30 17:00:03 UTC 2008
Here are the earthquakes in the Yellowstone area, most recent at the top.
(Some early events may be obscured by later ones.)
MAG UTC DATE-TIME y/m/d h:m:s LAT deg LON deg DEPTH km LOCATION
MAP 2.4 2008/12/30 11:59:07 44.523 -110.401 0.3 58 km ( 36 mi) ESE of West Yellowstone, MT
MAP 1.0 2008/12/30 02:00:37 44.553 -110.341 2.2 61 km ( 38 mi) SSW of Cooke City-Silver Gate, MT
MAP 1.0 2008/12/30 01:51:00 44.517 -110.354 1.8 62 km ( 38 mi) ESE of West Yellowstone, MT
MAP 1.3 2008/12/30 01:47:56 44.527 -110.381 1.1 59 km ( 37 mi) ESE of West Yellowstone, MT
MAP 2.3 2008/12/30 01:47:26 44.532 -110.359 2.0 61 km ( 38 mi) ESE of West Yellowstone, MT
Cheyenne - Yellowstone National Park was jostled by a host of small earthquakes for a third straight day Monday, and scientists watched closely to see whether the more than 250 tremors were a sign of something bigger to come.
Swarms of small earthquakes happen frequently in Yellowstone, but it's very unusual for so many earthquakes to happen over several days, said Robert Smith, a professor of geophysics at the University of Utah.
"They're certainly not normal," Smith said. "We haven't had earthquakes in this energy or extent in many years."
Smith directs the Yellowstone Seismic Network, which operates seismic stations around the park. He said the quakes have ranged in strength from barely detectable to one of magnitude 3.8 that happened Saturday. A magnitude 4 quake is capable of producing moderate damage.
Swarms of small earthquakes happen frequently in Yellowstone, but it's very unusual for so many earthquakes to happen over several days, said Robert Smith, a professor of geophysics at the University of Utah.
"They're certainly not normal," Smith said. "We haven't had earthquakes in this energy or extent in many years."
Smith directs the Yellowstone Seismic Network, which operates seismic stations around the park. He said the quakes have ranged in strength from barely detectable to one of magnitude 3.8 that happened Saturday. A magnitude 4 quake is capable of producing moderate damage.
The headline "Scientists track unusual earthquake swarm beneath Yellowstone" only means one thing to fans of the Discovery channel like myself: supervolcano. Here is what the earthquake center at the University of Utah had to say yesterday afternoon:
The University of Utah Seismograph Stations reports that a notable swarm of earthquakes has been underway since December 26 beneath Yellowstone Lake in Yellowstone National Park, three to six miles south-southeast of Fishing Bridge, Wyoming. This energetic sequence of events was most intense on December 27, when the largest number of events of magnitude 3 and larger occurred.
The Dalles -- Scientists say they have yet to definitively determine what is causing the town of Maupin, Ore., to endure an earthquake every other day.
Oregon State University research associate Jochen Braunmiller said during the last two years, more than 360 earthquakes have occurred in the general vicinity of Maupin for elusive reasons, The (Portland) Oregonian said.
The College of Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences researcher said while one theory focuses on water level shifts miles underground, scientists are at a loss to offer predictions regarding the quakes.
"It just kind of keeps going," Braunmiller said. "Overall, we know stress is being released so we think it will stop at some point. But we cannot say when that will happen or whether we have seen the largest one yet."
Oregon State University research associate Jochen Braunmiller said during the last two years, more than 360 earthquakes have occurred in the general vicinity of Maupin for elusive reasons, The (Portland) Oregonian said.
The College of Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences researcher said while one theory focuses on water level shifts miles underground, scientists are at a loss to offer predictions regarding the quakes.
"It just kind of keeps going," Braunmiller said. "Overall, we know stress is being released so we think it will stop at some point. But we cannot say when that will happen or whether we have seen the largest one yet."
A swarm of earthquakes continued to rattle Yellowstone National Park on Monday. Over the past two days, more than 37 temblors have shaken the earth below Yellowstone Lake, causing scientists to speculate on the cause and field questions on whether the quakes were a prelude to an eruption of the park's super volcano.
"It's an energetic earthquake swarm," said Mike Stickney, director of the earthquake studies office for the Montana Bureau of Mines and Geology. "I'm hearing reports that people in the park have been feeling some of them."
"It's an energetic earthquake swarm," said Mike Stickney, director of the earthquake studies office for the Montana Bureau of Mines and Geology. "I'm hearing reports that people in the park have been feeling some of them."
Comment: NOAA's Climate Prediction Center updated its ENSO data and prediction yesterday December 29, 2008. The La Nina conditions that were questionable a month ago have strengthened and current forecasts now call for La Nina to dominate well into 2009.
The report can be found here.
In addition to the cooling influence of La Nina, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is still strongly negative (in a cool phase) as can be seen here
Pacific Decadal Oscillation
And this recent article reveals the virtual absence of sunspots for the past year.
2008 sets record for days with no sunspots.
Sunspotless days 2008. Second fewest sunspots in over 100 years.