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Tue, 29 Nov 2022
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Earth Changes


Ace forecaster Bastardi: 'Something we used to see in 1970s', Warns of 'spectacular cold'

Risk of a "spectacular cold outbreak "...have countries let their guard down?
Intense Cold Berlin
© Watts Up with That
In his most recent Weatherbell Saturday Summary, veteran meteorologist Joe Bastardi looks ahead at the winter weather over the coming weeks across the globe.

What definitely distinguishes Joe from forecasters I follow here in Germany is that he doesn't rely solely on the so-called ensemble models to make his longer term forecasts, but goes way back into the archives and searches for similar patterns that took place even decades ago (analogues) in order to better discern which way the weather is likely to turn in the weeks ahead.

German forecasters like here , here and here like to put out videos once or even twice daily to report on what the many model ensembles are showing, which is something no one really needs a meteorological license to do. Too often you hear these weather pundits suddenly change their 7+ day forecast, in lockstep with whatever the latest ensemble run crunches out. Yet, most of us know that such forecasts are only valid until the next ensemble run because 7 days out the models can and often make U-turns.

Arrow Down

Deadly landslide triggered by heavy rainfall tears through Italian island of Ischia - 6 inches of rain in just 6 hours - At least 8 dead (UPDATE)

The mudslide dragged debris and trees down the mountains towards the coast of the island of Ischia
The mudslide dragged debris and trees down the mountains towards the coast of the island of Ischia
A number of people are feared to have been killed after a mudslide triggered by heavy rains swept away homes on the island of Ischia, near Naples.

The torrent of mud and debris dislodged trees, engulfed buildings and dragged cars into the sea as it reached the coast early on Saturday.

The body of a woman was reported to have been found under the mud, and several other people are still missing.

Dozens of homes are cut off, with bad weather hampering rescuers.

Comment: Update November 28

CNN reports:
Landslide on Italian island of Ischia kills at least 8

t least eight people have been confirmed dead after a landslide hit the Italian island of Ischia on Saturday, damaging buildings and obliterating transport infrastructure in its wake.

Five people are still missing, the governor of the Campania Prefecture office in southwest Italy told CNN Monday.

Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni declared a state of emergency on Sunday due to what she called "exceptional flood and landslide events," following torrential rain in the Gulf of Naples.

The landslide left damaged buses among the debris.
© Guglielmo Mangiapane/Reuters
The landslide left damaged buses among the debris.
Videos and images shared by local and national authorities showed the destruction in Ischia's port town of Casamicciola Terme. The island lies off Italy's coast, west of the city of Naples.

The governor of Campania, Vincenzo De Luca, said in a statement on Monday that the region had allocated around $4 million "to meet the most immediate needs relating to the Ischia landslide."

He added the administration would "ensure adequate services for displaced families housed in temporary shelters."

On Sunday, the governor told a news conference that homes on Ischia that were not up to building code were partly to blame for the damage, adding they must be demolished.

The Italian government also began distributing €2 million ($2.08 million) in aid and assistance to the local population affected by the landslide, according to a statement over the weekend.

Arrow Down

At least 15 dead in landslide in Cameroon capital Yaounde

At least 15 people died Sunday in a landslide on a hillside where a crowd was attending a funeral in a popular neighborhood of Yaounde, the Cameroonian capital, the governor of the region told AFP.

"We are now at 15 dead," Naseri Paul Bea, the governor of the Centre region, told AFP on Monday morning, some time after a dozen firefighters began digging with shovels on an imposing pile of red earth at the foot of the hill in the working-class Damas neighbourhood in the east of Yaoundé, according to an AFP correspondent on the spot.

Around them, a hundred residents and onlookers were kept at a distance by police.

Cloud Precipitation

Libya: Flood hits Tripoli after heavy rainfall

The Libyan capital Tripoli was hit by heavy rains on Sunday morning, leading to flooding of main roads and disruption of schools.

The Tripoli Security Directorate announced that it was taking over the towing of cars that broke down due to the heavy rains that flooded the streets.

The Traffic Affairs Office of the Tripoli Security Directorate called for the need to take precautions.

Libya's National Meteorological Centre said northern Libya would experience heavy rain and thunderstorms.

There have been no reports of human casualties.

Snowflake Cold

Heavy snow hits northern parts of China as cold wave sweeps in

Heavy snow hit northwest China's Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region and north China's Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region in recent days as a cold wave gripped large parts of the country.

Snow fell heavily over several days in northern Xinjiang, including Altay Prefecture, Yili Kazakh Autonomous Prefecture and Tacheng Prefecture. The snow, caused by a cold front, led to roadblocks and traffic jams, prompting local departments to initiate emergency responses. Over the past few days, as snow continued to hit Tacheng, more than 80 snow removal vehicles were put into operation.

Comment: Related: Mongolia warns of extreme cold in coming week

Cloud Precipitation

Disruptions due to flooding ongoing across Trinidad

L-R: Flooding in South Trinidad; flooding in Marianne, North Coast, Trinidad.

L-R: Flooding in South Trinidad; flooding in Marianne, North Coast, Trinidad.
Disruptions due to flooding ongoing across Trinidad, Trinidad and Tobago, as of early Nov. 28. Further adverse weather forecast.


Disruptions due to flooding are ongoing across parts of Trinidad as of early Nov. 28. Heavy rainfall since Nov. 17 has resulted in flooding, landslides, and fallen trees across the country. The Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Service has issued a orange (middle level on a three-tier scale) adverse weather alert across the country; periods of heavy rain and thunderstorms are forecast.


Yet another death due to dog attack in South Africa - 4th in 2 weeks

dog attack
There's been another fatal dog attack this time in the Eastern Cape where a woman is the latest victim.

Police said the 37-year-old woman was on her way to work when she was attacked in Port Alfred on Sunday and sustained serious injuries to her face and upper body.

It's understood two men who witnessed the attack reported the incident to a security official who rushed to the scene.

The woman, who was lying on the side of the road died before receiving medical attention.

Comment: Details of the other attacks:

Cloud Lightning

Lightning strike kills 16 cattle in Zimbabwe

A lightning bolt struck and killed 16 herd of cattle belonging to three families in Mbembesi 1, in Lupane East Constituency.

The lightning incident occurred last week on Thursday.

Kusile Rural District Councillor for Ward 23 Fibion Ngwenya said of the 16 beasts, 13 belonged to one family while two other families lost two and one respectively. Ngwenya said:

Cloud Precipitation

Saudi Arabian plane damaged by hail on approach to Jeddah airport

A Saudi Arabian Airlines Airbus A330 sustained damage to its nose cone and cockpit windshield after being hit by a hail strike on approach to Jeddah Airport in Saudi Arabia.

The Airbus A330-300 with registration HZ-AQ25 was approaching Jeddah as flight SV-452 from Khartoum in Sudan. Following heavy rainfall and violent hailstorms over Jeddah, Flight SV452 entered a hold at a high altitude prior to landing to wait for the weather to improve.


Stray dogs maul 2-year-old to death in Himachal Pradesh, India

dog attack
In Hamirpur, Himachal Pradesh, a horrifying incident involving a dog attack came to light. Several stray dogs killed a two-year-old girl by mauling her to death. On Thursday, the dead girl went missing. The girl's dead body was discovered in the morning in area, close to the hut.

As per the media reports, the victim's family is a resident of Bhagat Nagar in Punjab's Hoshiarpur and that the body of the child, who had been missing since Thursday night, was discovered close to a thatched hut. The girl's parents work in municipal council Hamirpur's sanitation department. The girl was reportedly seen playing behind the hut. In the meantime, a herd of dogs arrived and pulled the girl toward the bushes.