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Senior meteorologist on extended USA cold blast to last past Groundhog day: 'WOW F..ing WOW'

Anthony Watts
WattsUpWithThat
Wed, 22 Jan 2014 10:04 UTC
Normally quiet and reserved WeatherBell senior forecaster Joe D'Aleo (co-founder of the Weather Channel with John Coleman) almost never writes (email subject lines) like this. When he does, it gets my attention. A new forecast shows the cold blast in the eastern half of the USA extending well past Groundhog Day, Feb 2nd, according to their models. WeatherBell has had an excellent track record this winter so far. He says he hasn't seen anything like it since 1918 when the big flu pandemic hit the USA. Have a look:

D'Aleo writes in a follow up email about the forecast graphic below.
This is the GFS model depiction of the mean anomaly (in degrees C) for the 16 day period through 12z on February 6th. It covers the coldest period of the winter season climatologically in most areas. The other global models agree through at least 10 days. This is the most severe run thus far. We have been alerting clients to it for weeks. Here is the day by day anomaly for the mean of the GFS ensemble runs which agree on the steadiness and generally the severity of the cold.
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Snowflake Cold

Colder weather may threaten 15 percent of U.S. Midwest wheat - forecaster

Julie Ingwersen
Reuters
Wed, 22 Jan 2014 10:03 UTC
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Frigid temperatures in the U.S. Midwest this week posed a slight risk of freeze damage to about 15 percent of the region's soft red winter wheat crop, primarily in parts of Missouri and Illinois, a forecaster said on Wednesday.

"Northeastern Missouri into southern and central Illinois will be on the edge of this cold air and could get a little bit of winterkill," said Joel Widenor, a meteorologist with the Commodity Weather Group.

"Overall, it's not going to be a serious threat because we have got so much snow cover in place," Widenor said. The snow should protect dormant wheat in the coldest areas, including northern Illinois and Indiana.

Below-normal temperatures are expected in the Midwest for the next 10 days, with temperatures in Chicago seen dropping to minus 7 degrees Fahrenheit (minus 22 Celsius) by Thursday.
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Snowflake

U.S. Snow flight cancellation tally: 4,400 and growing

Ben Mutzabaugh
USA Today
Wed, 22 Jan 2014 07:44 UTC
Stranded air passengers
© Michael Ein, The Press of Atlantic City/AP
Stranded air passengers wait in line for refunds at the Atlantic City International Airport on Jan. 21, 2014, after snow caused delays and cancellations.
Air travelers face another rough travel today as airports dig out from the East Coast snowstorm that snarled flights Tuesday.

Flight-tracking service FlightAware.com says more than 1,400 flights nationwide have been canceled as of 7:30 a.m. ET this morning, a total that's likely to inch up during the day.

The bulk of those cancellations come at airports that bore the brunt of the snow, particularly the three big New York City-area airports, Boston and Philadelphia.
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Snowflake Cold

Ice Age Cometh: Temperatures hit -41C in Swedish cold snap


thelocal.se
Sun, 19 Jan 2014 03:28 UTC
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© Björn Lindgren/TT
Residents living in far northern Sweden woke up to a temperature of -41.2 C on Sunday as the harsh winter continues to bite across the rest of the country.

The village of Karesuando, right at the very northern tip of Sweden, clocked the epic cold temperature during Sunday reports the Swedish weather agency SMHI.

"It is also a seasonal record," said SMHI meteorologist Lars Unnerstad to the TT news agency. The recorded temperature of -41.2 was a record for that region which is right on the Finnish border.

Unnerstad added that he expected more cold records to break during the next 24 hours due to the high pressure, lack of wind and the continuing clear weather.

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© Johan Nilsson/TT
The deep freeze has had an impact on local transport in the region with train and bus services being cancelled as a result.
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Camcorder

Electric universe: Previously dormant Mt Sinabung volcano in Indonesia spews river of fire, pyroclastic cloud and lightning (VIDEO)


The Telegraph
Tue, 21 Jan 2014 16:01 UTC
Image
© CNN
Multiple eruptions send lava and searing gas tumbling out of the volcano in North Sumatra, Indonesia

Dramatic footage captured pyroclastic flow, a fast-moving current of hot gas and rock, glowing red and rare phenomenon like volcanic lighting as Mount Sinabung inIndonesia's North Sumatra province erupted again on Sunday.

The volcano was seen spitting clouds of gas and lava as high as 13,000 feet in several eruptions.

The 8,530-foot Mount Sinabung has sporadically erupted since September. More than 26,000 villagers have been evacuated since authorities raised the alert status for the volcano to the highest level in November 2013.

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Snowflake

4 to 7 inches of snow expected in Washington area as flights canceled across U.S.

Ashley Halsey III
The Washington Post
Tue, 21 Jan 2014 15:45 UTC
Washington snow traffic
© Ricky Carioti / The Washington Post
Traffic is seen moving on Interstate 70 westbound during a snowstorm in Myersville, Md.
The snow that swept over Washington on Tuesday in predicted fashion found the region hunkered down and ready, as hundreds of thousands stayed home from work and school, extending their long weekend by another day.

The Washington Post's Capital Weather Gang said the snow would continue into the evening, with the heaviest wallop around noon. Total accumulation was expected to be four to seven inches.

Thousands of flights were canceled across the country Tuesday as a heavy snowstorm spread through the Washington area and much of the Northeast corridor.

By midmorning, more than 2,800 flights were canceled and 1,400 were delayed across the country, according to FlightAware. In the D.C. region, 101 flights were canceled at Baltimore-Washington International Marshall Airport, 112 were canceled at Dulles International Airport and 173 were canceled at Reagan National Airport.
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Snowflake Cold

Cold weather claims 15 lives in Uttar Pradesh, India


India Today
Sat, 18 Jan 2014 14:08 UTC
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At least 15 persons succumbed under cold weather conditions in Uttar Pradesh as the winter chill gained in intensity in northern India today with dipping temperatures in Jammu and Kashmir and heavy snowfall in Uttarakhand.

In Delhi, the maximum and minimum temperatures were slightly higher than that recorded yesterday although the conditions continued to be bleak under largely overcast skies.

In UP, falling temperatures coupled with a spell of rainfall led to a worsening of the conditions, leading to five deaths in Jaunpur district and three in Hamirpur.

Two casualties each were reported in the Etah, Barabanki and Sitapur districts while one person died in the cold in Bhadoi, sources said.

The national capital recorded a minimum of 11.4 degrees Celsius today, which was four notches above the normal and higher than the 8 degrees at which it had settled yesterday.
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Crusader

Cross all that remains standing amid California wildfire that destroyed 1,700 acres


Charisma
Tue, 21 Jan 2014 12:37 UTC
Image
© Ryland Talamo, CBN News
Amid the flames caused by wildfires in Southern California near Azusa Pacific University stands a 10- to 12-foot cross on top of a mountain peak
Wildfires in Southern California near Azusa Pacific University have claimed at least 1,700 acres and destroyed at least six homes.

But amid the flames, one iconic structure is still standing.

A 10- to 12-foot cross on top of a mountain peak in the Azusa mountains is visible for miles. The cross was originally erected in 2007, and many local residents often hike up to the lookout spot where it stands overlooking the San Gabriel Valley.

This week, flames ripped through the area and the cross appeared to be lost, according to early local reports. But the wood structure, which has become a fixture on Azusa Peak, survived unscathed.

"Everything in the mountains is burnt and gone, including the "A" for Azusa. After houses were burnt down, hundreds evacuated and the city covered in smoke, there was one thing left, not only standing, but untouched. God is good, God is powerful and God is worthy of all praise," one local person posted on Facebook.
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Arrow Up

Prepare for upward jump in food prices as world's third-largest corn supplier suffers drought

Hugh Bronstein
Oman Daily Observer
Mon, 20 Jan 2014 12:27 UTC
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A three-week drought that parched Argentina's Pampas farm belt in December is quietly wilting this year's corn crop estimates for the South American grains powerhouse and will likely nudge world food prices higher. Local traders and analysts have cut their harvest estimates for this season to the 18 million to 25 million tonne range, way under the prediction offered by the farm minister just a month ago of more than 32 million tonnes. Plummeting forecasts in the world's No 3 corn supplier will likely support global prices after the US Department of Agriculture last week bucked trade expectations by cutting its forecast for US 2013/14 corn ending stocks. Weeks of record heat took a toll on budding Argentine corn fields last month. Later-planted soy, Argentina's main crop, was in earlier stages of development, shielding it from the irreversible hurt suffered by corn growing in adjacent fields.
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Cloud Lightning

Indonesian floods death toll rises to 23 as landslides, torrential rain hit Jakarta


news.com.au
Sat, 18 Jan 2014 12:18 UTC
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© Bay Ismoyo Source: AFP
Waterlogged ... Children venture out in a flooded street in downtown Jakarta.
The death toll in days of floods and landslides in Indonesia has climbed to 23, an official says, as torrential rain pounded the capital.

Families in Jakarta neighbourhoods waded through murky chest-high flood waters, clutching their belongings, while others were ferried to safety in rubber dinghies, local TV stations showed.

"Five people have died in Jakarta so far from drowning or electrocution in the floods," National Disaster Mitigation Agency spokesman Sutopo Purwo Nurgoho said.

More than 4300 people in the capital have been displaced by the floods, which also worsened the city's notorious traffic jams.

Meanwhile the death toll rose to 18 late on Friday in the northern part of Indonesia's Sulawesi island, which has suffered flash floods and landslides.

Two people there are still missing, Mr Nugroho said.
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