From the journal Earth System Dynamics billed as "An Interactive Open Access Journal of the European Geosciences Union" comes this paper which suggests that the posited AGW forcing effects simply isn't statistically significant in the observations, but other natural forcings are.

"...We show that although these anthropogenic forcings share a common stochastic trend, this trend is empirically independent of the stochastic trend in temperature and solar irradiance. Therefore, greenhouse gas forcing, aerosols, solar irradiance and global temperature are not polynomially cointegrated. This implies that recent global warming is not statistically significantly related to anthropogenic forcing. On the other hand, we find that greenhouse gas forcing might have had a temporary effect on global temperature."

This is a most interesting paper, and potentially a bombshell, because they have taken virtually all of the significant observational datasets (including GISS and BEST) along with solar irradiance from Lean and Rind, and CO2, CH4, N2O, aerosols, and even water vapor data and put them all to statistical tests (including Lucia's favorite, the unit root test) against forcing equations. Amazingly, it seems that they have almost entirely ruled out anthropogenic forcing in the observational data, but allowing for the possibility they could be wrong, say:

"...our rejection of AGW is not absolute; it might be a false positive, and we cannot rule out the possibility that recent global warming has an anthropogenic footprint. However, this possibility is very small, and is not statistically significant at conventional levels."

I expect folks like Tamino (aka Grant Foster) and other hotheaded statistics wonks will begin an attack on why their premise and tests are no good, but at the same time I look for other less biased stats folks to weigh in and see how well it holds up. My sense of this is that the authors of Beenstock et al have done a pretty good job of ruling out ways they may have fooled themselves. My thanks to Andre Bijkerk and Joanna Ballard for bringing this paper to my attention on Facebook.

Full Paper: Polynomial cointegration tests of anthropogenic impact on global warming (PDF)

Shanghai - Temperatures in China have plunged to their lowest in almost three decades, cold enough to freeze coastal waters and trap 1,000 ships in ice, official media said at the weekend.

Since late November the country has shivered at an average of minus 3.8 degrees Celsius, 1.3 degrees colder than the previous average, and the chilliest in 28 years, state news agency Xinhua said on Saturday, citing the China Meteorological Administration.

Bitter cold has even frozen the sea in Laizhou Bay on the coast of Shandong province in the east, stranding nearly 1,000 ships, the China Daily newspaper reported.

Zheng Dong, chief meteorologist at the Yantai Marine Environment Monitoring Center under the State Oceanic Administration, told the paper that the area under ice in Laizhou Bay was 291 square km this week.

Conditions on the planet continue to deteriorate, particularly in respect to more pronounced climate extremes seen across hemispheres, and the number of volcanoes that are now continuously erupting. The planet is undergoing dynamic change, whereby we're seeing early evidence that the physical dynamics of the planet is moving towards a spectrum of greater instability. This is happening, as the planet's magnetic field continues to abate in strength. This is suggestive that we've passed the rubicon in this internal process of a geological shift that has been brought on by an anomalistic fluctuation of thermal gradient in the planet's outer core. Consequently, change is now uniform, and these Earth changes can now generate events which will affect the entire planet. We had a 4.6 magnitude earthquake in Falcon, Venezuela on January 4, 2013 and that earthquake was immediately followed by a 4.3 earthquake in the Ceram Sea and a 4.9 in Halmahera, Indonesia.

Both points on the globe are on exact opposite ends of the planet. We call it an antipodal tangent. On January 5, we had a 5.1 magnitude earthquake on the Mid-Indian Ridge and that was followed approximately 4.5 hours later by an earthquake near the antipodal point of the Cascadian fault with a 7.5 magnitude earthquake in southeastern Alaska. What this means is the entire planet is now starting to resonate from this heightened state of seismicity. The Bible prophesized in Isaiah 24:20 there would come a time, in the very near future, where the Earth would be reeling to and fro or back and forth like a drunkard. This is a state of resonate seismicity resulting from the impact of very large cluster earthquakes or what we refer to in geology as an earthquake storm.

A blistering heat wave, power outages and a fuel shortage added up Tuesday to a second day of hellish conditions in Greater Buenos Aires, home to about a quarter of Argentina's 40 million people.

Amid a plethora of recommendations by the authorities on how to deal with the soaring temperatures, which on Tuesday were expected to reach 36 C (97 F), people took refuge in any shade they could find to get out of the blazing heat of the Argentine summer.

The National Meteorological Service renewed this Tuesday a high alert for the Argentine capital and its surrounding areas due to the high temperatures, which created scenes the total opposite of those seen these days in snowbound Europe and the United States.

"The city of Buenos Aires (with its 2.8 million inhabitants) has a summer average of 90 deaths per day but, for example, during the heat wave at the beginning of 2001 it went up to 250 deaths in a single day," the weather service warned on its Web site.

"Given that high temperatures will continue throughout the week, we ask the population to avoid as much as possible exposing themselves to sun rays and to drink a lot of water," Argentine Health Minister Juan Manzur said, urging people to seek medical attention if they develop such symptoms as high fever, drowsiness, fainting or a racing pulse.

Town of Dunalley, east of Australian island's capital, Hobart, worst-hit with police station and school consumed by blaze.

Wildfires on the Australian island of Tasmania have destroyed at least 100 homes, leaving hundreds of people homeless or stranded amid scorching temperatures and high winds.

The small town of Dunalley, east of the Tasmanian capital of Hobart, was worst hit by a blaze that destroyed around 80 buildings, including the school, police station and bakery.

The Australian prime minister, Julia Gillard, said the federal government was working with local and state authorities to support those affected by the fires. "For those who have lost their homes, a devastating experience, ... we will be working with them, as will the state government to support people through," she said.

"There are media reports that a life has been lost - I'm not in a position to confirm that, but bushfires are very dangerous things."

A tsunami warning was canceled early Saturday for portions of British Columbia, Canada, and southeastern Alaska, officials said.

The warning was issued following a 7.5-magnitude earthquake that struck off the coast of Alaska 63 miles west of Craig, a town on Prince of Wales Island, and 208 miles south of the capital of Juneau, the U.S. Geological Survey said.

The size of the temblor, which struck at 3:58 a.m. ET, off the coast of Alaska was downgraded by the USGS from 7.7 to 7.5.

There were no initial reports of damage but the West Coast and Alaska Tsunami Warning Center said a small tsunami of about six inches was observed near the southeastern Alaskan town of Port Alexander on Baranof Island.

A tsunami watch for the coastal areas of the British Columbia-Washington border was also canceled.

Watchful Moscow residents with their eyes to the sky were given an interesting view on Christmas Eve, as a huge "celestial spiral" closely resembling a strand of DNA appeared over the city.

In a batch of photos posted to the photo sharing session of Russian website Netall.ru, one of the strangest cloud formations ever is detailed in a handful of images snapped around a 20 mile stretch of the city. As you can imagine, this has stirred up some interesting conversation as to what could be the cause of such an event.

As of now, sky-savvy internet sleuths believe the strange clouds were caused by contrails, or thin artificial cloud formations caused by the water exhaust emitted from aircraft. You've more than likely seen them in the sky on a regular basis, but rarely in such a striking form.

We're not saying it was aliens, but well.. you know.

Have a look at some of the best shots below:

Three Northern lapwings, European shore birds that seldom stray into the Western hemisphere, were apparently blown across the Atlantic into Massachusetts by the chaotic winds of Hurricane Sandy and are now in danger of succumbing to the cold New England winter, a bird expert said.

The rare birds, with their colorful plumage and odd-looking head feathers, have drawn bird enthusiasts from across the country.

Two of the birds have taken up residence in a Nantucket pond and one has been sighted by the side of several Bridgewater roads, said Wayne Petersen, director of Mass Audubon's Important Bird Areas Program.

Petersen, who has seen the Bridgewater bird several times, said it was in severe danger of starving because snow covering the frozen ground makes it nearly impossible for the bird to find worms and other food.

A recent NPR article¹ highlights the truly frightening environmental effect of monoculture. NPR commentator and science writer Craig Childs decided to replicate a photo project by David Liittschwager, a portrait photographer who spent years traveling the world dropping one-cubic-foot metal frames into gardens, streams, parks, forests, and oceans, photographing anything and everything that entered the frame.

Around the world, his camera captured thousands of plants, animals, and insects within the cubes, with entirely different "worlds" of plants and animals living as little as a few feet away from each other.

Childs recruited a friend, and together they set out to replicate Littschwager's "critter census" in a corn field in Grundy County, Iowa.

But whereas Littschwager's camera captured several dozens of insects wherever he set up his frames, Childs and friend found nothing stirring among the genetically engineered corn stalks on the 600 acre farm in Iowa, where they spent an entire weekend crawling around on the ground. No signs of life with the exception of an isolated spider, a single red mite, and a couple grasshoppers.

"It felt like another planet entirely," Childs said. "I listened and heard nothing, no birds, no clicks from insects. There were no bees. The air, the ground, seemed vacant."

"Yet, 100 years ago, these same fields, these prairies, were home to 300 species of plants, 60 mammals, 300 birds, hundreds and hundreds of insects," Robert Krulwich writes². "This soil was the richest, the loamiest in the state. And now, in these patches, there is almost literally nothing but one kind of living thing. We've erased everything else."

A massive clean-up of rotting fish is underway on the Coromandel Peninsula where thousands of snapper have washed up since New Year's Eve.

Fisheries officials have warned people not to eat the fish as Thames-Coromandel District Council staff try to work out how they came to be dumped at the popular holiday spot.

TCDC communications manager Benjamin Day said the dead fish were beginning to ''rot and smell'' so the decision was made to begin the clean-up immediately.

"With the DOC campsites full and boaties launching from the beach, we want to get the place cleaned up for our visitors as fast as possible,'' he said.

The clean-up will concentrate on an area 100 metres either side of Granite Wharf, situated at Paritu, north of Colville.

It is not the first time this has happened at the small settlement.

Thousands of dead snapper also washed ashore in 2011 at Little Bay and Waikawau Bay, causing residents to wonder at the time whether they were starving or poisoned, although that was deemed unlikely.

The Ministry of Fisheries investigated that incident as well but it still remains unsolved.

Fisheries compliance manager Brendon Mikkelsen said the Ministry for Primary Industries was investigating the latest incident but could not confirm the number of dead fish found on the shore.

But local residents said the dead fish numbered in the "thousands".