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Fri, 02 Dec 2022
The World for People who Think

Earth Changes


Deadly flooding in parts of Brazil

Several regions in Brazil's north and south have been hit by devastating flooding, due to heavy rains in recent days.

Thousands of people have been displaced and at least three fatalities have been confirmed.

Two people are known to have died when a landslide hit the BR-376 highway in Paraná state, and dozens more are missing.

Local authorities in Sergipe state, in northeast Brazil, also reported a fatality.

Comment: Landslide after heavy rain leaves at least 2 dead and dozens missing in Brazil

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DR Congo - More landslides in east leave at least 9 dead

More heavy rainfall in eastern parts of Democratic Republic of the Congo has triggered yet another deadly landslide. At least 57 people have now died as a result of landslides in the region since mid-November.

The landslide occurred Kalehe Territory in South Kivu Province. Local media, quoting local officials, said at least 9 people had lost their lives and a further 20 were injured.

Heavy rain late on 29 November 2022 caused several rivers and streams to break their banks, which in turn triggered a landslide in the village of Murambi. As many as 50 houses are thought to have been destroyed, leaving dozens homeless.

As of 30 November, search and rescue operations were continuing in search for other victims feared buried in the landslide.

Cloud Lightning

Atlantic hurricane season below average in latest blow for Net Zero alarmists

hurricane trees
The 2022 North Atlantic hurricane season is drawing to a close, and all the evidence shows it is below average in the number of storms and overall ferocity. Unsurprisingly, the climate catastrophists have again been proved wrong in their forecasts. In May, the U.K. Met Office said the season was "most likely" to be above average. "What is interesting this year is that the forecasts issued by many different agencies are all indicating an above-average season. As they are all pointing in the same direction, this gives us a higher degree of confidence," noted Julian Heming, said to be the Met Office's expert on tropical cyclones.

The Met Office forecast 18 named tropical storms and four major hurricanes. According to data collected by tropical scientist Phil Klotzbach of Colorado State University and quoted by Professor Roger Pielke, in 2022 there were 14 tropical storms and two major hurricanes. In an article headed "The 2022 Seasonal Hurricane Forecast Bust", Prof. Pielke references the work of the Barcelona Supercomputing Centre that collected work from 29 organisations, "which allows a detailed analysis of just how wrong the community was in 2022". Of the 19 organisations that issued forecasts last spring, 17 of them predicted an above-average frequency of 'named storms'. By early summer, all 19 of these forecasts predicted an above-average season. Yet, according to Pielke, on most metrics the hurricane season was below average.

It's only a climate model forecast, it might be said. But of course, in a political world where the weather is catastrophised on a daily basis, these predictions play an important part in promoting the command-and-control Net Zero agenda.

Bizarro Earth

Volcano eruptions on the rise with Solar Minimum

Solar Cycle 24
© Armstrong Economics
We are now in Solar Cycle 25 with peak sunspot activity expected in 2025. Solar Cycle 24 which ended in December 2019, was of average in length, at 11 years. However, it was the 4th-smallest intensity since regular record keeping began with Solar Cycle 1 in 1755. We're now in Solar Cycle 25 and we are still in Solar Minimum conditions at this time. Solar Maximum is predicted to occur midway through this cycle which may come as soon as November 2024 but no later than March 2026, with this ideal peak reaching most likely by July 2025.

Right now, the solar wave is conforming more to our model than that of NASA. The Sun has become far more active than NASA has forecast or expected. NASA is beginning to worry that this Solar Cycle 25 could become the Strongest Cycle Since Records Began. Effectively, in terms of our model terminology, Solar Cycle 25 may be a Panic Cycle. In other words, we appear to be headed into the strongest cycle on record following the weakest cycle. That is high volatility in cycle terminology.

So what does this mean for Markets?

Socrates Forecast
© Armstrong Economics
Since this Solar Minimum may continue into 2024, that appears to be a very major turning point on our global food index. Most of our models on markets are showing Panic Cycles in the 2027-2028 time period. That appears to be more war than nature.

Cloud Precipitation

Flash floods reported in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia after rainfall

Rainfall across Kuala Lumpur today has seen several areas in the capital to be flooded today, including Jalan Parlimen, Jalan Maharajalela, Jalan Travers and others, as well as Taman Connaught in Cheras.

Further north, the same also appears to have taken place in Kampong Sumpitan, Perak, where the flooding appears on video to be rather more severe (video for Kampong Sumpitan in embedded tweet immediately below).

If you had planned to leave to office or otherwise travel into or out of these affected areas, check your areas from your point of origin to your destination to find out if your route will take you through any of these affected areas; if they are, delay your journey if you can, and move your vehicle to a safer location where possible.


6 pilot whales found stranded on Cape Cod, Massachusetts

The pilot whales were found stranded on a Massachusetts beach

The pilot whales were found stranded on a Massachusetts beach
After three days trying to save several beached pilot whales in Cape Cod, rescuers' efforts came to an end Wednesday.

Six whales were found stranded on an Eastham beach on Monday afternoon. Rescuers' efforts to get the whales back in water in the high tide were initially successful, but they found the youngest whale dead on Tuesday and then discovered four of the other whales had turned back toward the shore and gotten stranded again.

Misty Niemeyer, an animal rescue officer and stranding coordinator with the International Fund for Animal Welfare, which led the response, said they were cautiously optimistic about the effort but in the end it was not possible to save those four whales that re-stranded. She said all of them were in poor health and were located in an area where it was hard to work. That combined with today's gale force winds and high tide after dark led veterinarians and biologists determine the best course of action was to euthanize the whales.


Over 1.1 million farm animals lost in floods across Pakistan, seminar told

Highlighting their concerns over incidents of animal cruelty and absence of any state initiatives for animal welfare in decades, speakers at a seminar held on Wednesday shared that animals suffered a lot more than humans in this year's devastating floods and much of their ordeal still remained undocumented.

The event — Floods 2022 and Animal Welfare in Pakistan — was jointly organised by the provincial livestock and fisheries department and Brooke Pakistan, an international non-profit organisation working since 1991 for the welfare of equine animals belonging to the poor.

Citing official and international data, the speakers stated that the loss of livestock alone had been estimated to be over 1.1 million in the devastating floods, which had the greatest impact on Balochistan, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Sindh.

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Landslide after heavy rain leaves at least 2 dead and dozens missing in Brazil

Authorities believe mud buried six trailers, and up to 15 vehicles on the highway
© Corpo de Bombeiros Militar de Santa Catarina/Reuters
Authorities believe mud buried six trailers, and up to 15 vehicles on the highway
A landslide in the southern Brazilian state of Paraná killed at least two people and left dozens missing on Wednesday, according to officials.

A landslide, which followed heavy rainfall, affected Brazil's BR-376 highway, CNNE reports. Authorities believe mud buried six trailers, and up to 15 vehicles on the highway, as it tumbled on a 200 meter (656 foot) stretch of the road.

A fire department representative told local media that they estimate that between 30 and 50 people could be missing.

The representative added that military police, firefighters, civil defense teams and rescue dogs are assisting with rescue efforts and the cleaning of embankments.


Waterspout seen off coast of Panama City Beach, Florida

A large waterspout was seen spinning off the coast of Panama City Beach, Florida, during a severe line of storms that caused more than 30 tornado reports across the South.


Giant waterspout forms off Philippines Coast

A gigantic waterspout formed off Bohol, Philippines, on Nov 27 — sending one tourist boat scrambling to get away. Onlooker Dhodz Baratas, who captured footage of the cylindrical storm, says the waterspout eventually dissipated without incident.

"It was so big but it was also gone soon," he said. "We were a bit alarmed in case it would move towards the shore."