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Mon, 14 Oct 2019
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Snowflake

Adapt 2030 Ice Age Report: Opposite of what 'climate experts' told us: Global snow

First snow in Heinävaara, Joensuu, on 4 October
© All Over Press / Ismo Pekkarinen
First snow in Heinävaara, Joensuu, on 4 October 2019
Extended ski season for 3rd year in a row Australia, Unusual heavy snows China, India, Finland, Norway with a revisit of MS Malmo stuck in early sea ice at the end of Summer. Its the opposite of what climate experts have told us was going to happen.


Sun

Chile's unprecedented drought affects 37,000 farmers

Chile's drought devastates ranchers, farmers

Chile's drought devastates ranchers, farmers
The driest southern winter in six decades has left a complex balance: 6 of the 16 regions in Chile are suffering the effects of the rainfall deficit, which in the case of Valparaiso and Santiago reached 77%. According to the Ministry of Agriculture, there are about 37,000 farmers at risk. In addition, nearly 106,000 animals in the regions between Atacama (north) and Maule (south) have died due to lack of water and food, according to data from the ministry.

Chile meets most of the nine vulnerability criteria set forth by the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), including areas prone to drought and desertification.

"The situation is complex," acknowledged Javier Maldonado, the governor of the province of Chacabuco, which houses several of the communities affected by the drought. "We have to be realistic, climate change is here to stay," he added.


Snowflake

Winter: The White Elephant In The Room

climate cartoon
Summer is over, and it is time to change focus from alarmists nonsense about summer, to alarmist nonsense about winter.

Errata : I attributed a Washington Post reference to the New York Times


Snowflake Cold

Record cold in Sakhalin, Russia

frost
Among the record holders is the settlement of Moskalvo, where the average daily temperature is 3.4 degrees below the climatic norm, and the new absolute maximum for October 5 is now -1.7, one degree lower than the previous record set in 1955.

In Nogliki, the thermometer dropped to -4.6 degrees, the previous record of -2.3 was observed recently, in 2017.

At the beginning of the new week in the valleys of the center and north, the air will catch frost to -5 degrees, and in the valleys of the south to -2.

Thanks to Victor for this link.

Snowflake

Third autumn snowstorm hits the Alps

snow
There has been another snowstorm in the Alps, the third so far this autumn, bringing more fresh snow to higher slopes.

Around 12 glacier ski areas are currently open in Europe, more than half of them in Austria, and all have reported fresh snowfall in the past 24 hours, although several now have clear skiers this morning for a powder snow day.

Hintertux, pictured below this morning, reports 20cm of fresh snow in the past 24 hours.



Red Pill

The State of Science in The 21st Century

Mann Hypocrisy
I grew up in Australia in the 1950s and '60s. The story we were sold at school was that science was leading the brave new world. Dedicated men and women were pursuing truth in science, free from bias and influence. Scientific discoveries were lauded in the press and we were exhorted to accept these new findings as gospel truth. Science was extolled as a great even a noble career.

As I have grown older and (hopefully) wiser I have discovered that was anything but the truth. Science today has completely lost its way. There is a crisis in all disciplines around reproducibility - other people not being able to reproduce results reported. More and more funding is provided by corporates and foundations linked to corporates and government bodies with a very clear agenda and desire for particular results. Produce results that run against the agenda and you risk having your research terminated, your funding pulled, and your reputation attacked. There are many examples of this happening.

The way for a scientist to progress his/her career is to do research and to publish in prestige journals. In order to do that, they need to attract funding and have their research peer-reviewed. It turns out that to attract funding, avoid being attacked by one's fellow scientists and be accepted for publication, it is necessary to follow the politically-correct path. And this is true in all fields of science, be they medical, psychology, climate, smoking, diet and nutrition etc.

Cloud Grey

Coldest October 6th ever measured in Netherlands, cold week forecast

Oosterpark
© NL Times
Ducks swimming in Amsterdam's Oosterpark, 7 Oct 2019.
Sunday was the coldest October 6th in the Netherlands since temperature measurements started in 1901. The maximum at the national weather station in De Bilt climbed to only 9.6 degrees Celsius, breaking the previous record of 10.1 degrees dating from 1936, Weeronline reports.

This is the first cold record broken this year. The previous coldest day record was broken on September 23rd, 2018. On the other hand, 2019 has counted 13 heat records so far. According to Weeronline, it is due to global warming that the number of date-heat records outnumber the number of date-cold record on such a scale. Without global warming, the ratio between cold and heat records would be 1 to 1, the weather service writes.

The cold record broken on Sunday was thanks to a combination of rain, an easterly wind, and thick cloud cover. The air cooled down due to prolonged rainfall, a strong easterly wind blew icy air into the Netherlands, and a thick blanket of clouds shielded the sunlight and prevented it from warming up the environment.

Comment: A few heatwaves does not equal global warming; 2019 seems like it'll be a repeat of last years record breaking cold, except even more extreme: This winter's record breaking brutal weather documented in epic list - and it's not over yet (2018)

See also:


Biohazard

Dengue fever cases surge 200% in Mexico in 2019

mosquito
© CC0
The number of confirmed dengue fever cases, where people contracted the disease or died from it, in Mexico has seen a fourfold surge to 15,084 over the past year, the epidemiological service of the country's Health Ministry said in a report.

Last year, 3,494 cases were registered, according to the report, issued on Friday.

Notably, around half of the confirmed cases have been registered in the states of Veracruz and Jalisco.

However, the number of unconfirmed dengue fever cases this year is 129,500, as of October, compared to 39,900 cases last year.

Comment: Mexico, like much of the planet, is seeing an increase in extreme weather, particularly torrential rainfall, and so one wonders whether at least one factor in the surge of dengue fever cases is the dramatic shift in weather patterns:


Tornado1

Explosive development of Super Typhoon Hagibis

Typhoon Hagibis

Typhoon Hagibis in Himawari-8 images at 6:30 UTC today, October 7th.

Super Typhoon Hagibis has explosively strengthened from a tropical storm to Super Typhoon strength in less than 24 hours!


Hagibis was a tropical storm 24h ago (Oct 6th, 10h UTC), with peak sustained winds of 96 km/h. As of 00h UTC on October 7th, typhoon Hagibis had reached equivalent-CAT3 strength with peak sustained winds of 185 km/h, gusting up to 232 km/h. It continued rapid strengthening, with JTWC 00h UTC warning forecasting 222 km/h peak winds by 12h UTC, Oct 7th and 250 km/h sustained peak winds, gusting to 306 km/h by 00h UTC on October 8th.

Latest satellite imagery shows impressive structure on Hagibis, with a tight, pinhole eye, indicative of a very powerful system. Latest peak wind estimates put peak sustained winds at 241 km/h, a high-end equivalent-CAT4 Super Typhoon, just shy of equivalent-CAT5. It is thus strengthening even faster than anticipated.

Typhoon Hagibis is now approaching the Marianas Islands. Latest forecast path has it tracking over the uninhabited island of Anatahan in the northern part of the Marianas late today.

Blackbox

The IPCC's seldom mentioned 'uncertainties' when it comes to global warming 'tipping points'

uncertainty
The IPCC's latest serve of climate catastrophism, released just before the UN General Assembly met in New York last month, ironically contained some good news. But not even "inadequate" models, "limited" observations, poor understanding, dodgy "projections" and revelations about "deep uncertainty" could rein in the hyperbole.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is the UN agency that "assesses" the status of climate-change science and produces reports on it. It also prepares a Summary for Policymakers (SPM). This document is crafted to be digestible by climate bureaucrats, national leaders and the media, most of whom have been drip-fed alarmist rhetoric for years, if not decades.

The IPCC is an odd outfit. Created in 1988 by the United Nations Environment Programme (UN Environment) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), it is no surprise to learn its Secretariat is located in the latter's Geneva building. Except for the Secretary Abdalah Mokssit, a Moroccan applied mathematician and meteorologist, most of its 18 staff seem to be "communications and media specialists" or administrators. The current chair is Hoesung Lee, a South Korean economist. He was elected in late 2015, after Rajendra Pachauri. resigned under a cloud of sexual harassment allegations.

The assessment reports are described as "neutral, policy relevant but not policy prescriptive". Translation: we are not telling you what to do, but encourage you to do what we are telling you. They are "drafted and reviewed in several stages". This byzantine process with its own jargon - "a calibrated language for the communication of confidence" - apparently ensures "objectivity and transparency". The IPCC does not conduct its own research.

Comment: See also: