NOAA Press Release: Elusive El Niño challenges NOAA's 2012 U.S. Winter Outlook
The western half of the continental U.S. and central and northern Alaska could be in for a warmer-than-average winter, while most of Florida might be colder-than-normal December through February, according to NOAA's annual Winter Outlook announced today from the agency's new Center for Weather and Climate Prediction in College Park, Md.
Forecasters with NOAA's Climate Prediction Center say a wavering El Niño, expected to have developed by now, makes this year's winter outlook less certain than previous years.
"This is one of the most challenging outlooks we've produced in recent years because El Niño decided not to show up as expected," said Mike Halpert, deputy director of NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. "In fact, it stalled out last month, leaving neutral conditions in place in the tropical Pacific."
When El Niño is present, warmer ocean water in the equatorial Pacific shifts the patterns of tropical rainfall that in turn influence the strength and position of the jetstream and storms over the Pacific Ocean and United States. This climate pattern gives seasonal forecasters confidence in how the U.S. winter will unfold. An El Niño watch remains in effect because there's still a window for it to emerge.
Earth Changes
Yesterday I highlighted the paper "The extra-tropical Northern Hemisphere temperature in the last two millennia: reconstructions of low-frequency variability", by B Christiansen of the Danish Meteorological Institute and F C Ljungqvist of Stockholm University which showed that using a multitude of proxy samples in the norther hemisphere, that:
Fig. 4. Northern Scandinavian JJA temperatures back to 138 BC. The annually resolved N-Scan record (blue curve) shown together with 100-year filters of the reconstruction (red curve) and uncertainty estimates integrating standard and bootstrap errors (dashed curves). Light and dark grey bars indicate exceptionally warm and cold 30-year periods during the Roman, Migration, Medieval Warm, Little Ice Age, and Modern Warm Periods. Temperatures are expressed as anomalies with respect to the 1951–1980 mean.
"The level of warmth during the peak of the MWP (Medieval Warm Period) in the second half of the 10th century, equaling or slightly exceeding the mid-20th century warming, is in agreement with the results from other more recent large-scale multi-proxy temperature reconstructions."Now another paper, by Esper et al published in the Journal of Global and Planetary Change, shows that not only was the summers of the MWP equal or greater than our current warmth, but that the summers of the Roman Warm Period of 2000 years ago were significantly warmer than today.
Fig. 4. Northern Scandinavian JJA temperatures back to 138 BC. The annually resolved N-Scan record (blue curve) shown together with 100-year filters of the reconstruction (red curve) and uncertainty estimates integrating standard and bootstrap errors (dashed curves). Light and dark grey bars indicate exceptionally warm and cold 30-year periods during the Roman, Migration, Medieval Warm, Little Ice Age, and Modern Warm Periods. Temperatures are expressed as anomalies with respect to the 1951–1980 mean.
© Alamy
Bans on water use were put in place for large parts of England during spring 2012.
Bans on water use were put in place for large parts of England during spring 2012.
The dramatic switch from drought and hosepipe bans in England this spring to the wettest April to June ever and widespread flooding was of a magnitude never seen before, water experts said on Thursday.
While water supplies have made "dramatic" recoveries from droughts before, such as in 1975-76, "sustained recoveries of this magnitude during the late spring and summer have not been seen before," said Terry Marsh, from the Centre for Ecology & Hydrology (CEH).
Earlier this month, the CEH said that following the wet summer, groundwater levels were above and "well above" the average for early autumn.
The Environment Agency (EA), which is responsible for drought measures and flood defences, said the extreme weather showed the need for the UK to adopt greater resilience to protect homes, roads and power stations.
Thousands were left without power after a blustery storm system swept through Arkansas and Mississippi on Wednesday night, with initial reports saying it spawned at least five tornadoes.
Five people near Anguilla, Miss., were injured after their mobile home was completely destroyed, NBC station WLBT in Jackson, Miss., reported. A mother and her four children were inside the home, one child having received what appeared to be serious injuries, Sheriff Lindsey Adams told WLBT. The family was taken to a local hospital.
Not far from the scene, another mobile home was blown off its foundation and into a field. A woman was found inside and taken to a hospital with numerous injuries, WLBT reported.
In Conehatta, Miss., a suspected tornado downed dozens of trees and power lines, and damaged several structures, the Storm Prediction Center reported.
It could be midday Thursday before electricity is restored to everyone who lost power in the Denver area after powerful winds. Xcel Energy Inc. says the blackouts affected about 50,000 customers in Denver, Fort Collins and Greeley starting at 10 p.m. Tuesday. Crews restored service to most by midday Wednesday.
About 5,500 were still without power Wednesday evening, and the company said it could be noon Thursday everyone's service is restored. The National Weather Service said gusts of up to 60 mph were reported in the Denver area and the northeast Colorado plains Tuesday night.
Gusts of 46 mph were reported in the northern Colorado town of Loveland on Wednesday. Fort Morgan, Akron and Holyoke in northeastern Colorado reported 40 mph gusts. The Weather Service issued a high wind warning for much of northeastern Colorado, with sustained winds of up to 40 mph and gusts of up to 60 mph possible.
About 5,500 were still without power Wednesday evening, and the company said it could be noon Thursday everyone's service is restored. The National Weather Service said gusts of up to 60 mph were reported in the Denver area and the northeast Colorado plains Tuesday night.
Gusts of 46 mph were reported in the northern Colorado town of Loveland on Wednesday. Fort Morgan, Akron and Holyoke in northeastern Colorado reported 40 mph gusts. The Weather Service issued a high wind warning for much of northeastern Colorado, with sustained winds of up to 40 mph and gusts of up to 60 mph possible.
© Stephen Milton
The centre of Whitehaven has been among the worst affected areas
The centre of Whitehaven has been among the worst affected areas
Elsewhere, Whitehaven and Egremont are among areas to have suffered flooding. Network Rail said buses were being used for passengers travelling between Sellafield and Whitehaven, with the line expected to remain closed until Thursday. Spokesman Keith Lumley said: "Unfortunately we're in exactly the same situation as we were last time.
"The earth has slid down from the top of the embankment, the majority of which has been caught by concrete barriers we put in after the last slip.
And it was a similar story in Cork this morning where city streets were under as much as two-feet of water as high tide blighted the city.
Impassable
In Dublin, AA Roadwatch reported serious flooding around the Tallaght area, with the road impassable at the Jobstown Inn, and from the Old Bawn junction on the N81 Tallaght Bypass down to the M50 junction.
Several cars stalled on the N81 after driving through flooded areas. Traffic in the area was heavy inbound during morning rush hour as motorists queued to try to negotiate the floods by driving one-by-one on the higher footpaths beside the affected roads.
Further west on the N81 there was heavy flooding from Brittas to Tallaght.
© USGS
2012-10-17 04:42:31 UTC
2012-10-17 12:42:31 UTC+08:00 at epicenter
Location
4.191°N 124.573°E depth=337.4km (209.7mi)
Nearby Cities
166km (103mi) SW of Sarangani, Philippines
193km (120mi) SSW of Glan, Philippines
199km (124mi) S of Kiamba, Philippines
212km (132mi) SSW of Malapatan, Philippines
1071km (665mi) E of Bandar Seri Begawan, Brunei
Technical Details
© USGS
2012-10-16 19:12:22 UTC-04:00 at epicenter
2012-10-16 16:12:22 UTC-07:00 system time
Location
43.592°N 70.676°W depth=6.6km (4.1mi)
Nearby Cities
6km (4mi) NNE of Waterboro, Maine
21km (13mi) WNW of Biddeford, Maine
21km (13mi) WNW of Saco, Maine
23km (14mi) W of West Scarborough, Maine
81km (50mi) ENE of Concord, New Hampshire
