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Global population of polar bears has increased by 2,650-5,700 since 2001

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The official population estimates generated by the IUCN Polar Bear Specialist Group (PBSG) give the impression that the global total of polar bears has not changed appreciably since 2001:
2001 PBSG report 21,500-25,000

2005 PBSG report 20,000-25,000

2009 PBSG report 20,000-25,000

2013 PBSG website 20,000-25,000
However, some accounting changes were done between 2001 and 2009 (the latest report available) that mean a net increase in numbers had to have taken place (see summary map below and previous post here. Note: this is a different issue than the misleading PBSG website graphic discussed here).

And while it is true that population "estimates" are just that - rather broad estimates rather than precise counts - it is also true that nowhere do the PBSG explain how these dropped figures and other adjustments were accounted for in the estimated totals.

Cloud Precipitation

Typhoon Krosa batters Luzon, targets Vietnam

Typhoon Krosa is unleashing its fury on the Philippines' northern Luzon Island, then will begin its journey toward Vietnam on Friday. Typhoon Krosa will then spend Thursday night tracking along the far northern coast of Luzon. Damaging wind gusts in excess of 100 kph (60 mph) are expected across northern Luzon, well north of the capital city of Manila and other highly populated areas. The heaviest rainfall will also be north of Manila.

According to Accuweather.com Meteorologist Eric Wanenchak, "125-250 mm (5-10 inches) of rainfall is expected across northern Luzon through Friday as Krosa passes over the area from east to west." This amount of rainfall will produce flooding problems and potential mudslides.
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© NOAAThis satellite captured Krosa as it was making landfall on Luzon late Thursday.
Some rain associated with Krosa will also spread over eastern Taiwan through Friday, threatening to hinder earthquake cleanup efforts. While the interaction with Luzon will cause some weakening, Krosa will still be a typhoon when it reaches the South China Sea on Friday.

Krosa will then remain over open water through the weekend, tracking as if it is heading toward Hong Kong through Saturday before curving to the southwest away from mainland China by Sunday

Info

Extremely rare hybrid solar eclipse to occur on Sunday

Eclipse
© amlet/Shutterstock
Parts of eastern North America, northern South America, southern Europe, the Middle East and several other parts of the world will be able to experience a unique type of solar eclipse this Sunday, November 3.

The event is known as a hybrid solar eclipse, and according to Deborah Byrd and Bruce McClure of EarthSky, this type of event "appears fleetingly as an annular - or ring eclipse - at its start and becomes a brief total eclipse later on." However, many parts of the world will see a partial eclipse sometime between sunrise and sunset.

Byrd and McClure report that the eclipse will be visible to those living in far-eastern North America, the Caribbean, northern South America, southern Greenland, the Atlantic Ocean, southern Europe, Africa, Madagascar and the Middle East. Proper protection will be necessary when observing the event to avoid potential injury or blindness.

Provided skies are clear enough, a partial solar eclipse will be visible in eastern North America beginning at sunrise on Sunday. From that location, as well as the Caribbean and the northwestern tip of South America, the eclipse will appear as an extremely shallow and shrinking partial solar eclipse, the EarthSky writers said.

Cloud Lightning

Monstrous Halloween storm to bring heavy rains and howling winds as it heads towards the U.S. East Coast

A monstrous Halloween storm will inflict torrential rains, howling winds and booming thunderstorms from Texas to the Midwest and as far as the Northeast, forecasters have predicted. It will mean wet and windy celebrations for trick-or-treaters across the U.S., with as many as 42 million people battling thunderstorms across cities including Nashville, Houston, Cincinnati and Indianapolis.
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The thunderstorms could be capable of dropping several inches of rain in just a few hours, sparking flash flooding from eastern Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley, Accuweather reported. High winds could also down trees and power lines across the eastern Great Lakes into the upper Ohio Valley into the Northeast, the Weather Channel warned.

Forecasters warned residents against going near downed power lines as they could be live and dangerous. 'Damaging winds and some tornadoes will be possible with what should be a complex and potentially messy storm,' the Storm Prediction Center predicted, USA Today reported.

Bizarro Earth

USGS: Earthquake Magnitude 6.3 - 45km SSW of Hualian, Taiwan

Hualin Quake_311013
© USGS
Event Time
2013-10-31 12:02:09 UTC
2013-10-31 20:02:09 UTC+08:00 at epicenter

Location
23.591°N 121.443°E depth=12.0km (7.5mi)

Nearby Cities
45km (28mi) SSW of Hualian, Taiwan
63km (39mi) SE of Buli, Taiwan
72km (45mi) ESE of Lugu, Taiwan
87km (54mi) ESE of Nantou, Taiwan
761km (473mi) ENE of Hong Kong, Hong Kong

Technical Details

Question

What is that thing? Giant 'fish' pulled up from Seattle's Elliott Bay

Giant Fish
© Mark Harrison/Seattle TimesJennifer Klingenstein and her son Quinn, 4, look at the giant fish on a table Wednesday at Sunfish restaurant in West Seattle. The sunfish, weighing several hundred pounds, was caught in Elliott Bay by a tribal fishermen gillnetting for salmon.
This photo of a strange-looking fish was taken by Mark Harrison of The Seattle Times, a day after the creature was pulled up from Seattle's Elliott Bay, off Harbor Island.

According to the Times, a Muckleshoot tribal fisherman, Todd LaClair, had his gill net in the waters off Seattle.

"I was fishing at about 100 feet deep, and as I pulled in the net I could feel that it was big," LaClair told the Times. "When it first came up, it startled me and looked like something that came from Mars."

He said he later discovered it was a giant sunfish - a mola - that he estimated at about 350 pounds. The mystery is why it was in Elliott Bay. Sunfish are native to tropical and temperate waters and feed mostly on jellyfish.

To read the entire Seattle Times article, click here.

Cloud Precipitation

Arrests in China follow protests over response to catastrophic floods


A farmer clears dead pigs at a flooded pig farm in the typhoon-hit Yuyao city in Zhejiang province after Typhoon Fitow flooded the city.
© China Daily/ReutersA farmer clears dead pigs at a flooded pig farm in the typhoon-hit Yuyao city in Zhejiang province after Typhoon Fitow flooded the city.
Undisclosed number of people held as thousands protest over allegedly botched response to flooding in eastern city of Yuyao

Arrests have been made after large anti-government protests in an eastern Chinese city hit by catastrophic flooding, an official newspaper reported on Wednesday.

Thousands took part in theprotest in the Zhejiang province city of Yuyao on Tuesday and an undisclosed number were arrested for "radical acts", including pelting police with bricks and flipping over government vehicles, the official English-language Global Times reported. It said residents were angered over an allegedly botched response to the flooding and the slow restoration of electricity and other basic services.

Such protests, termed mass incidents by the government, occur regularly around China, sparked by incidents ranging from traffic accidents to industrial pollution and official abuses of power. Public outrage is often exacerbated by perceptions of special treatment for the rich and powerful and by distant and unresponsive autocratic leaders appointed from above by the Communist party.

Bizarro Earth

USGS: Earthquake Magnitude 6.2 - 9km SSE of Constitucion, Chile

Chile Quake_301013
© USGS
Event Time
2013-10-30 02:51:51 UTC
2013-10-29 23:51:51 UTC-03:00 at epicenter

Location
35.413°S 72.368°W depth=18.3km (11.4mi)

Nearby Cities
9km (6mi) SSE of Constitucion, Chile
59km (37mi) WNW of San Javier, Chile
61km (38mi) N of Cauquenes, Chile
63km (39mi) W of Talca, Chile
268km (167mi) SW of Santiago, Chile

Technical Details

Bizarro Earth

Mysterious melting sea stars raise concerns in U.S. and Canada


Seattle - There have been recent reports of starfish that appear to have melted in bodies of water located in Washington state and British Columbia. Biologists are not yet sure about what is causing these creatures to die in such an unusual way.

According to King 5, biologists recently went scuba diving in the waters of Puget Sound to recover several different healthy and diseased starfish. During their expedition, they noticed a disturbingly large number of starfish that appear to have died and melted into a pile of goo on the ocean floor.

Snowflake

The coming of a new Ice Age

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Contrary to the conventional wisdom of the day, the real danger facing humanity is not global warming, but more likely the coming of a new Ice Age. What we live in now is known as an interglacial, a relatively brief period between long ice ages. Unfortunately for us, most interglacial periods last only about ten thousand years, and that is how long it has been since the last Ice Age ended.

How much longer do we have before the ice begins to spread across the Earth's surface? Less than a hundred years or several hundred? We simply don't know.

Even if all the temperature increase over the last century is attributable to human activities, the rise has been relatively modest one of a little over one degree Fahrenheit - an increase well within natural variations over the last few thousand years.

While an enduring temperature rise of the same size over the next century would cause humanity to make some changes, it would undoubtedly be within our ability to adapt. Entering a new ice age, however, would be catastrophic for the continuation of modern civilization.

Comment: This article adds one more piece to the newly emerging consensus on the direction that our climate seems to be heading. Those scientists who carefully observe the reality on the ground and scrutinize the available facts see what is coming our way in the not so distant future: the return to an Ice Age.