Still churning hundreds of miles east of the Caribbean, Hurricane Irma is on a track that could bring it near the Leeward Islands by Wednesday and into the Eastern Bahamas by Friday.
Hurricane watches were issued Sunday afternoon by the governments of Antigua, France, and the Netherlands on Sunday afternoon for the islands of Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, Montserrat, St. Kitts, Nevis, Saba, St. Eustatius, Sint Maarten/St. Martin, and Saint Barthelemy. With any luck, Irma's center and its more dangerous right-hand side will stay just north of the Leewards, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola.
However, Irma is expected to be a powerhouse Category 4 hurricane by that point, so high winds, huge surf, and torrential rains could occur well away from its center. It appears increasingly likely that Irma's wrath will be focused on parts of The Bahamas late next week, and a major hurricane landfall along the U.S. East Coast is a distinct possibility by Sunday or Monday.
Irma's behavior has been remarkably steady over the last couple of days. At least one eyewall replacement cycle has occurred, a process that can lead to short-term weakening followed by a restrengthening a day or two later as the new eyewall takes over. Since Friday, Irma's top sustained winds have oscillated within the 110-120 mph range, crossing the boundary between Category 2 and 3 strength several times. As of 5:00 pm EDT, Irma's estimated top winds were 115 mph. The first Hurricane Hunter flight into Irma, which was in progress Sunday evening, found a
dropsonde-measured surface pressure of 961 millibars and a remotely-estimated pressure of 958 mb, both of which are considerably lower than the 5 pm NHC estimate of 969 mb.
Surface winds of 113 mph were estimated in the northeast eyewall.
Irma has healthy upper-level outflow in all directions (see Figure 1), which is one important measure of a hurricane's potential for growth. Irma is also getting larger-a trend that may continue all week-with tropical-storm-force winds now extending out up to 140 miles on its north side.
Comment: There are hurricane watches in place for Puerto Rico and Floridians are being warned to prepare: