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Renowned German mathematician and professor of statistics slams dramatization of Covid-19

Jens Berger
Anti-Empire
Fri, 27 Mar 2020 07:03 UTC
Gerd Bosbach

Gerd Bosbach, is a mathematician and an Emeritus Professor of Statistics whose main field of interest and research is statistics on demographics and health care. He is renowned enough in his country that he has a giant German Wikipedia page
The media reports daily the new «number of infected», while everyone involved actually knows that they are far too low.

The next part of the sentence then deals with "death rates", while everyone involved knows that they are far too high.

There is a confusion of terms, and politicians have to make decisions based on highly uncertain assumptions, with serious effects for society. Jens Berger spoke with professor in statistics Gerd Bosbach about definitions, numbers and the lessons that we have not drawn from past crises and hopefully will draw from this crisis in the future.

Jens Berger: Last Friday, the German Society for Epidemiology warned that in one hundred days we will have more than a million patients in Germany who will need intensive care. A horror scenario that was immediately picked up by many media, but was clearly put into proper perspective by the epidemiologists a few hours later. This forecast was made on the basis of assumptions that, let's say politely, are not really scientifically reliable. Can you explain to our readers how such reports come about?

Comment: See also:

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Padlock

Two hundred and thirty years of rights and liberties shredded: Why I oppose the lockdown

Brandon Turbeville
Activist Post
Tue, 24 Mar 2020 05:51 UTC
coronavirus freedom
© Anthony Freda Art
Although it was nearly twenty years ago, I can remember 9/11 like it was yesterday. I remember the shock of hearing about the planes crashing into towers, at first believing it was a tragic accident and quickly learning it to be otherwise. I remember being told that 19 hijackers, part of a fundamentalist plot to destroy America, were behind the attacks and that the mastermind was a man in a cave in Afghanistan named Osama bin Laden.

As all of America was glued to their television screens, many rushed out to give blood in an effort to at least do something to help one another. George W. Bush's answer for Americans was to go to work and then go out and shop. Americans dutifully complied. But the government's answer, in tandem with mainstream media, was also to be afraid. Very afraid. Americans also complied with this request, perhaps more than any other.

In the days and weeks after the initial shock, a college professor informed me about a bill called the PATRIOT ACT that would essentially eviscerate much of the Constitution and Bill of Rights. After class, I questioned him further about the bill, which he explained, and suggested that if I really wanted to understand what was happening, I should read 1984 by George Orwell. I went home and did just that and was surprised to learn that not only was he right, but that I was watching what I was reading happen in front of me in real life.

Comment: See also:

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Cow Skull

WTC 7 NOT destroyed by fire on 9/11, concludes final University of Alaska Fairbanks report, formal "request for correction" will be made of Gov't


AE911Truth
Wed, 25 Mar 2020 00:00 UTC
Building 7 wtc
The destruction of the 47-story World Trade Center Building 7 in New York City late in the afternoon of September 11, 2001, was not a result of fires, according to the much-anticipated final report issued today by researchers at the University of Alaska Fairbanks.

The UAF team's findings, which were the result of a four-year computer modeling study of the tower's collapse, contradict those of the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST), which concluded in a 2008 report that WTC 7 was the first tall building ever to collapse primarily due to fire.

"Our study found that the fires in WTC 7 could not have caused the observed collapse," said Professor Leroy Hulsey, the study's principal investigator. "The only way it could have fallen in the observed manner is by the near-simultaneous failure of every column."

The four-year study was funded by Architects & Engineers for 9/11 Truth (AE911Truth), a nonprofit organization representing more than 3,000 architects and engineers who have signed the organization's petition calling for a new investigation into the destruction of the three World Trade Center towers on 9/11.
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Red Flag

'No new patients until release': WATCH staff protest KIDNAPPING of Haiti hospital chief as Covid-19 takes root in country


RT
Fri, 27 Mar 2020 04:01 UTC
protective mask
© Reuters / Andres Martinez Casares
The chief surgeon and director at one of Haiti's major hospitals was kidnapped on his way into work, triggering protests from the facility's staff, who have refused to take any new patients until the doctor is freed.

The surgeon, Dr. Jerry Bitar, was abducted soon after leaving his home for the Bernard Mevs hospital in Haiti's capital of Port-au-Prince on Friday, an administrator at the facility told Reuters. Crowds gathered outside the hospital to demand for Bitar's release, chanting slogans and declining treatment for any new arrivals.

"Hospital staff decided not to take any new cases for the time being," said the administrator, Carla Puzo, adding "We will continue to look after those already here."
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Hearts

Not all Americans are fighting over toilet paper: Here are some good deeds people have done that remind us of our better instincts

Cassius K
The Organic Prepper
Fri, 27 Mar 2020 00:00 UTC
good deeds
During difficult times, you'll notice an emergence of conscience and courage in a lot of people. You might see people being willing to help others even when they are at risk themselves, acting courageously in conscience.

The coronavirus pandemic is no different. While you might see more coverage in the mainstream media about people fighting over toilet paper, here are 5 recent instances of kindness coming into play during the outbreak.

1. NJ Resident does grocery runs

Going from store to store collecting groceries for people in need, Bloomfield, New Jersey resident Abraham Dickerson is doing his part.

"Why did I start? Because I care," the good Samaritan said. "I didn't want to see anyone go hungry or possibly risk their life going to get food."

Dickerson's gesture means a lot to the people he is assisting.

An elderly woman named Barbara Brooks explained how Abraham helped her get groceries. Her residence is a tower where seniors live, and she has to deal with asthma. She was advised to be distant from others as much as possible.

"It means that someone cares," she said. "I'm almost out of breath."
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Chalkboard

Public Hysteria Vs. Scientific Thinking

Gilad Atzmon
Gilad Online
Fri, 27 Mar 2020 00:00 UTC
Corona
The Corona crisis has exposed our political and media establishments as dysfunctional and possibly dangerous. If the West was, until recently, associated with scientific, analytical, rational and methodical thinking, then not much is left of that Athenian reasoning. Like houses of cards, most of our Western democracies have succumbed to populist decision making that is, by its nature, deeply unscientific.

When I enrolled in university 35 years ago, scepticism and critical thinking were regarded as precious Western values. This approach has been discarded: skeptics are reduced into public enemies. They are scorned by the media and often smeared by their professional colleagues.

No one, I guess, doubts that the world is facing a hazardous health crisis, yet so many questions regarding the nature of this crisis, its origin, the virus at its centre and possible solutions are brushed aside in a manner reminiscent of historical clerical witch hunts rather than treated with the kind of reasoning that should be ingrained in us by Western Liberal traditions.

Comment: Many of the names Mr. Atzmon mentions above from the OffGuardian article had been previously captured here on SOTT, with added comments:

12 Experts Question The Need For a Global Coronavirus Lockdown

See also:

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Cardboard Box

UK's empty supermarket shelves: Panic is not the problem


The Guardian
Fri, 27 Mar 2020 18:03 UTC
Empty shelves
© David Davies/PA
Empty shelves at a Tesco store in Worcester. 'The underlying problem is that a handful of retailers dominate the market.'
Until a couple of weeks ago, the idea of waiting in an Ocado queue of 73,735 shoppers, or of supermarkets rationing milk and baked beans, would have sounded like satire. For too many people in the UK, food scarcity is the norm, with mothers and fathers going hungry to ensure their children are fed. But others have grown used to an absurd abundance: strawberries and peaches in midwinter, or 20 types of mustard alongside three score of pasta. When such bounty overflows, it seems self-evident that supplies are both plentiful and reliable - until suddenly they aren't.


Comment: The government knows this and tried to bury the report exposing the fact that a great many are relying on foodbanks to feed their families.


In fact, warns Tim Lang in his new book, Feeding Britain, our food system is "stretched, open to disruption and far from resilient". It is easy to castigate panic buyers for empty shelves. But while shopping responsibly will help others to get the food they need, only a few people are squirrelling away vast stocks. Research firm Kantar says the average spend per supermarket trip has risen by 16% to £22.13 month on month - not surprising when households realised they were likely to need lunches at home, including for children no longer in school, and could have to self-isolate for a fortnight.

Comment: In short, the massive over-centralization of power in the hands of a few is the problem.

Evidently the UK's food supply is incredibly fragile, and here are a few additional threats that the UK and many other countries face that could quite easily cause food shortages: transport difficulties due to border closures; hard frosts damaging crops; flooded fields preventing them being harvested; droughts, which seem to be a increasing occurrence; plagues of insects, such as the locust swarms decimating crops in the Middle East and Africa; an interruption to Just In Time Delivery caused by a natural disaster (Wikipedia uses an EMP as its example) - and that's just a sample, there are numerous other possibilities and many of them are already happening.

As for solutions, sadly, the vast majority cannot 'do the right thing' and buy local and organic if it's the more expensive option, and the farmers are clearly unable to do much either if their protests all over Europe are anything to go by, because they're already on the brink of going under, and many of them blame the government and it's dictatorial 'green' policies.

See also: Dystopia: UK police using drones to shame the public for going on 'non-essential' walks

And check out SOTT radio's:

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Pirates

FSB foiled ISIS attack in Southern Russia

Joaquin Flores
FRN
Fri, 27 Mar 2020 00:00 UTC
ISIS
© Countercurrents
Employees of the Federal Security Service (FSB) of the Russian Federation prevented the attack in Krasnodar.

As a result of the measures taken, a citizen of Russia born in 1993, involved in the preparation of this crime, was arrested.

An improvised explosive device was found in the detainee's car, and correspondence with members of the international terrorist group ISIS , exposing his criminal intentions, was found in the means of communication used.

Investigative actions are ongoing.

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Rocket

Two rockets hit Baghdad's Green Zone - UPDATE: Another rocket fired toward American Embassy


RFE/RL
Thu, 26 Mar 2020 17:01 UTC
U.S. Embassy Iraq

An Iraqi security source said the intended target appeared to be the U.S. Embassy. (file photo)
Two rockets struck inside Baghdad's heavily fortified Green Zone, which houses government buildings and foreign missions, early on March 26, but there were no casualties, the Iraqi military said.

"Two Katyusha rockets fell near Baghdad operation command. Details to follow," the military statement said.

An Iraqi security source said the intended target appeared to be the U.S. Embassy, located several hundred meters south of where the rockets hit.

It is the 26th such attack targeting installations where foreign troops and diplomats are based across Iraq since late October. There was no immediate claim of responsibility.

Based on reporting by Reuters and AFP

Comment: Update: Another rocket has targeted the Green Zone in Baghdad. RT reports:
At least one rocket was fired in the vicinity of the heavily fortified Green Zone in Baghdad, where the American Embassy is located, according to local reports. Military aircraft were spotted hovering in the area afterwards.

An explosion rocked the Iraqi capital early on Friday morning local time, according to Al-Arabiya, with some reports stating a "massive" number of armed American helicopters were spotted circling over the area a short while later.



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Corona

COVID-19: Member of Putin's staff infected; cases in Iran top 32,000; US Congress passes stimulus bill


RFE/RL
Fri, 27 Mar 2020 17:44 UTC
russian employees
© Reuters
Employees wearing protective masks process potatoes in a vegetable storage facility in the village of Vinsady in Russia's Stavropol region on March 27.
The global death toll from the coronavirus has exceeded 24,000 with more than 550,000 infections confirmed, causing mass disruptions as governments continue to try to slow the spread of the new respiratory illness.

Here's a roundup of developments in RFE/RL's broadcast countries.

Russia

The Kremlin says a member of President Vladimir Putin's administration has been infected with the coronavirus, but the person had not been in direct contact with Russia's leader.

The announcement came as the government widened restrictions aimed at fighting the disease, ordering all restaurants and cafes to close, beginning March 28.

As of March 27, the country's total number of confirmed cases was 1,036, up 196 from a day earlier. Three deaths have also been reported.


Comment: More details on these deaths:
The latest victim was a 70-year-old woman with a number of underlying conditions. She had suffered from diabetes for 20 years and also had terminal renal failure and other diseases.

The two other Russian deaths, announced on Wednesday, also involved elderly patients, aged 88 and 73 respectively. Last week, a 79-year-old woman was initially thought to have succumbed to coronavirus, but a post-mortem showed that a blood clot was the actual cause.

Forty-five people in Russia are known to have recovered from Covid-19, according to officials.
Over 220,000 people have been tested in Russia so far, and as Russia's newly developed test system enters serial production, it will be used in up to for 10k tests per day, then 50k per day. The military is conducting quarantine exercises, including fortification and evacuation, sanitation and overall logistics.


Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told Russian news agencies that a man working in the presidential administration had been infected with the coronavirus.

"Indeed, a coronavirus case has been identified in the presidential administration," Peskov was quoted as saying.

"All necessary sanitary and epidemiological measures are being taken to prevent the virus from spreading further. The sick man did not come into contact with the president," he added, saying this was the only known case at the Kremlin.

He gave no further details.

Comment: The U.S. Congress approved the $2.2 trillion stimulus bill today, to be sent now to the White House. The U.S. military will stop providing specific data about infections in its ranks (currently there are 280 reported military cases), providing only aggregate data and not breakdowns which could show which areas are more affected and thus weaker. Unemployment may reach its hightest levels ever. The official number of cases in the U.S. passed 90k, more than China has reported. Wall Street stocks tumbled in response. European markets also crashed. E-commerce is doing just fine, though (e.g., Amazon) - as is the retail food market. The IMF chief says the world economy has entered a recession as bad or worse than the global financial crisis.


(Another visualization of the same data.)

UK PM BoJo tested positive. He's got mild symptoms and is self-isolating. (Meanwhile ordinary UK citizens with worse cases are struggling to get tested. #prayforboris) Johnson's announcement was followed by UK health secretary Hancock, also now in isolation. The UK government is requesting all homeless people be housed by the weekend. UK cases jumped by almost a third in the last day. Irish PM Leo Varadkar warns that Ireland's ICUs could be at full capacity in a few days. (Ireland has one of the lowest ICU bed capacities across Europe, with only 50 beds per million people. By comparison, Italy, which has seen its hospitals overwhelmed by Covid-19 cases, has 125 ICU beds per million people.") The case load of Europe as a whole surged in the past day, with the death toll reported as over 25k. But these statistics shouldn't be taken at face value. The include a lot of guesswork without proper testing. Italy - which as far as we can tell, only reports lab-tested cases, but which doesn't exclude comorbidities from their numbers - experienced its worst day so far, with 919 deaths in a single day.

See also:

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