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Could the Covid-19 response be more deadly than the virus?

Kevin Ryan
OffGuardian
Wed, 01 Apr 2020 21:24 UTC
homeless
The initial, alarming estimates of deaths from the virus COVID-19 were that as many as 2.2 million people would die in the United States. This number is comparable to the annual US death rate of around 3 million. Fortunately, correction of some simple errors in overestimation has begun to dramatically reduce the virus mortality claims.

The most recent estimate from "the leading US authority on the COVID-19 pandemic" suggests that the US may see between 100,000 and 200,000 deaths from COVID-19, with the final tally likely to be somewhere in the middle." This means that we are expecting around 150,000 US deaths caused by the virus, if the latest estimates hold up.

How does that compare to the effects of the measures taken in response? By all accounts, the impact of the response will be great, far-reaching, and long-lasting.

To better assess the difference we might ask, how many people will die as a result of the response to COVID-19? Although a comprehensive analysis is needed from those experienced with modeling mortality rates, we can begin to estimate by examining existing research and comparative statistics. Let's start by looking at three critical areas of impact: suicide and drug abuse, lack of medical treatment or coverage, and poverty and food access.
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'Expert' COVID prediction of 50K hospitalizations in NY by April 1 turned out to be 400% too high

C. Douglas Golden
The Western Journal
Sat, 04 Apr 2020 21:25 UTC
NYC Navy hospital ship
© Kena Betancur / Getty Images
The USNS Comfort, a Navy hospital ship, is docked at Pier 90 on April 3, 2020, in New York City.
As coronavirus models go, the one put forth by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington, or IHME, has been one of the more optimistic ones.

According to The Washington Post, the model predicted 38,000 to 162,000 deaths in the United States — lower than most models and lower than the White House estimate of 100,000 to 240,000 deaths.

Even though it may be conservative, however, the IHME model might not have been conservative enough.

Take New York, the epicenter of the disease. According to the IHME model, the state would have needed 50,962 hospital beds on April 1, on the way to peak usage April 9. On that day, it would need 76,130 hospital beds.

Comment: Seems even New York's manipulation of the death rate by including any symptom that is vaguely like the coronavirus as a cause of death hasn't worked out so perfectly. No worries. Most people won't see these details, and most of those who do will see through the facts because 'people are dying'!

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Russian Flag

Russian FSB prevents terrorist attack after shoot-out with Dagestani ISIS

Joaquin Flores
Fort Russ News
Fri, 03 Apr 2020 19:31 UTC
Russian FSB
© Sputnik
The Russian FSB prevented the attacks that members of international Islamist groups planned to carry out in the Stavropol Territory and the Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Area. This was announced today, April 3, at the Center for Public Relations (CSP) of the FSB of Russia.

In the Stavropol Territory, terrorist acts were prepared by members of the cell of the Islamic State terrorist group (ISIS). One local resident and a native of Dagestan planned attacks on police officers and terrorist acts at objects of mass stay of citizens.
"One of the criminals was detained by the forces of the special forces of the FSB of Russia in Neftekumsk, the second engaged in armed resistance and was neutralized," the TsOS said.
In the city of Lyantor (Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug), the FSB, in conjunction with the Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs, detained three members of a cell of the Caucasus Emirate group (banned in the Russian Federation) who were preparing a terrorist attack on one of the city's retail facilities.
"They discovered and seized a home-made explosive device ready for use, components for the manufacture of IEDs, weapons and ammunition," the FSB said.
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Essential businesses list in Ontario about to get shorter

Becky Robertson
blogTO
Wed, 01 Apr 2020 00:00 UTC
canadian flag
© A traveller wears a mask at Pearson airport arrivals, Toronto, Ontario, Canada Reuters/Carlos Osorio
Pearson Airport, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
Ontario Premier Doug Ford has confirmed that he will be "adjusting" the list of essential businesses that the province previously announced could remain open during the COVID-19 pandemic.

"We're going to do everything we can to reduce that list," Ford said at a press conference on Wednesday, promising further information within a day or so. He made it clear that maintaining supply chains will be a top priority.
Many residents have been saying that the list, which was released on March 23 and included 74 types of business operations in 19 categories, is longer than it needs to be.

Comment: Laboratory Earth: Give people something to fear and they will limit and police themselves. Structure and rules trump freedom and unity when under duress of the unknown. Somebody does know the plan, suggesting this is as much a test of state leaders as it is of the people. The details are in the tweaks.

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Calendar

Moscow extends coronavirus lockdown until May 1; Putin prolongs paid leave period


RT
Thu, 02 Apr 2020 18:36 UTC
Moscow
© Reuters/Maxim Shemetov
Red Square, Moscow, Russia
Moscow, Russia's worst affected city during the current Covid-19 pandemic, has extended its strict home isolation regime until the end of April following President Vladimir Putin's decision to extend nationwide paid leave. All restrictions imposed in the Russian capital will stay in force until May 1, Mayor Sergey Sobyanin announced on his official blog, as the city struggles to contain the spread of coronavirus.

Nevertheless, the Mayor feels there is no reason for the introduction of an electronic QR-code system. The measures were previously actively discussed in the local media and on social networks. The QR-codes that Moscow residents should have received through a special mobile app were designed to better control compliance with the home isolation regime.
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Airplane

Americans stuck: Last flight out of Russia halted on tarmac due to coronavirus lockdown extension

Patrick Reevell
ABC News
Fri, 03 Apr 2020 08:29 UTC
MacKay brothers
© @julianmackay/Instagram
Julian MacKay, left, and his brother Nicholas are seen in this screen grab from a video posted to Instagram.Julian MacKay, left, and his brother Nicholas are seen in this screen grab from a video posted to Instagram.
Hundreds of Americans are stuck in Russia after the country abruptly suspended international air traffic on Friday in response to the coronavirus epidemic, forcing the last flight bound for the U.S. to cancel its takeoff even as it was waiting on the runway.

Julian MacKay, a ballet dancer, and his younger brother, Nicholas, had been frantically trying to get out of Russia for two weeks to reach their father, who is dying of cancer in Montana. The brothers on Friday thought they had managed to do so as they fastened themselves into their seats on the last flight out of Moscow to New York, which was run by the Russian state airline Aeroflot.

The plane's doors were already closed as the plane prepared to leave Moscow's Sheremetyevo International Airport. They were messaging their mother to tell her they were on their way when a cockpit announcement in Russian suddenly informed passengers the flight was canceled. Pandemonium followed, as desperate and angry passengers demanded answers from the crew.

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Smoking

Russian smokers face COLD TURKEY withdrawal - tobacco deemed non-essential item in Covid-19 crisis

Jonny Tickle
RT
Fri, 03 Apr 2020 19:18 UTC
no smoking russian shopping mall
© Sputnik / Evgenya Novozhenina
Exit plan and No Smoking sign at Serebryany Dom shopping mall, Moscow.
As coronavirus attacks the respiratory systems of people all around the world, perhaps there will be one less thing destroying the lungs of Russians - cigarettes.

With the designation of tobacco as a non-essential product, half of the country's production will grind to a halt. Before President Putin's Thursday confirmation of an extended self-isolation period, experts suggested that any extension could lead to a shortage. Now, it's very likely.

Despite Russia seeing a steep drop off in the volume of sales in the 2010s, the country is still the 4th largest cigarette market in the world. According to numbers from market research firm Euromonitor International, Russia sits only behind China, Indonesia, and the US. In 2015, the World Health Organization estimated that 59 percent of Russian males over the age of 15 smoke, although Rosstat figures suggest those numbers have fallen significantly since then, amid major public health campaigns in Russia.

Comment: According to these studies, Russia and the rest of the world may be on the wrong track:

Preliminary Estimates of the Prevalence of Selected Underlying Health Conditions Among Patients with Coronavirus Disease 2019
Some outcomes might be underestimated, and long-term outcomes cannot be assessed in this analysis. Third, because of the limited availability of testing in many jurisdictions during this period, this analysis is likely biased toward more severe cases, and findings might change as testing becomes more widespread. Fourth, because of the descriptive nature of these data, attack rates among persons with and without underlying health conditions could not be compared, and thus the risk difference of severe disease with COVID-19 between these groups could not be estimated. Fifth, no conclusions could be drawn about underlying conditions that were not included in the case report form or about different conditions that were reported in a single, umbrella category. For example, asthma and COPD were included in a chronic lung disease category. Finally, for some underlying health conditions and risk factors, including neurologic disorders, chronic liver disease, being a current smoker, and pregnancy, few severe outcomes were reported; therefore, conclusions cannot be drawn about the risk for severe COVID-19 among persons in these groups.
And:

Clinical characteristics of 140 patients infected with SARS-CoV-2 in Wuhan, China.
An approximately 1:1 ratio of male (50.7%) and female COVID-19 patients was found, with an overall median age of 57.0 years. All patients were community-acquired cases. Fever (91.7%), cough (75.0%), fatigue (75.0%), and gastrointestinal symptoms (39.6%) were the most common clinical manifestations, whereas hypertension (30.0%) and diabetes mellitus (12.1%) were the most common comorbidities. Drug hypersensitivity (11.4%) and urticaria (1.4%) were self-reported by several patients. Asthma or other allergic diseases were not reported by any of the patients. Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD, 1.4%) patients and current smokers (1.4%) were rare. Bilateral ground-glass or patchy opacity (89.6%) was the most common sign of radiological finding. Lymphopenia (75.4%) and eosinopenia (52.9%) were observed in most patients. Blood eosinophil counts correlate positively with lymphocyte counts in severe (r = .486, P < .001) and nonsevere (r = .469, P < .001) patients after hospital admission. Significantly higher levels of D-dimer, C-reactive protein, and procalcitonin were associated with severe patients compared to nonsevere patients (all P < .001).


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'Dark day' in Prague: Czech authorities use Covid-19 lockdown to tear down monument to Soviet liberator


RT
Fri, 03 Apr 2020 16:53 UTC
Ivan Konev
© Sputnik / Alexei Danichev
A monument to Soviet World War II commander, Ivan Konev, in Prague.
A monument to Soviet Marshal Ivan Konev, who commanded the forces that liberated Prague from the Nazis in 1945, has been removed and mocked for 'not having a mask' by one local official, in what Russia has condemned as an insult.

Konev is one of the most celebrated Red Army generals, who commanded the 1st Ukrainian Front (army group) that liberated the Auschwitz death camp in January 1945 and the Czech capital several months later, putting an end to six years of Nazi occupation.

Yet on Friday, the authorities in Prague's District Six dismantled his statue, using the fact that stay-at-home orders imposed to combat the spread of Covid-19 prevented any protesters from showing up.
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Amazon had strategy to smear Staten Island strike organizer according to leaked memo - UPDATE

Mike Snider
USA Today
Fri, 03 Apr 2020 00:00 UTC
amazon protests staten island
Amazon had a strategy to smear the organizer of a worker walkout at the online retailing giant's Staten Island, New York, fulfillment center on Monday, according to leaked notes from a company meeting.

The notes, circulated as a memo within Amazon, and acquired by Vice News, addressed many issues about the company's planned actions during the ongoing coronavirus crisis. Amazon fired Chris Smalls, the organizer of the workplace walkout several hours after the event Monday.

In response to any regulatory or media query about Smalls, "we should spend the first part of our response strongly laying out the case for why the organizer's conduct was immoral, unacceptable, and arguably illegal, in detail, and only then follow with our usual talking points about worker safety," according to the memo, reportedly forwarded within Amazon by the company's general counsel David Zapolsky.

Comment:
UPDATE April 3: Bernie Sanders along with other media figures and politicians have condemned the firing, so of course Amazon executives regurgitated Zapolsky's talking points. Employees have told RT journalists that they are afraid to go to work, noting that Amazon refused to disinfect the warehouse even after as many as a dozen people tested positive for the coronavirus. Others have brought up the issue of racism:
The entire episode also had a political undertone. As journalist Jeremy Scahill of the Intercept pointed out, Zapolsky is a fundraiser for Joe Biden, Barack Obama's former vice president and the current favorite of the Democratic establishment to win the 2020 presidential nomination. Carney was Obama's spokesman from 2011 to 2014, and Biden's prior to that.

Way back in 2007, Biden had described Obama as "the first mainstream African-American who is articulate and bright and clean," touching off a firestorm of accusations that such descriptions were thinly veiled racism.

"Racial coding" is how journalist Malaika Jabali also described Zapolsky's notes, adding that "many warehouse workers are [people of color]. This is a class AND race fight."

Contrary to Zapolsky's claims, Smalls did not appear to have any trouble expressing his views to RT, or penning a Guardian op-ed after his firing.
See also:

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Biohazard

Coronavirus has signs of being man-made - Czech Geneticist

Joaquin Flores
Fort Russ
Fri, 03 Apr 2020 11:21 UTC
coronavirus
© Fort Russ
The well-known Czech molecular geneticist and virologist Sonia Pekova says that one cannot exclude the possibility that the coronavirus that caused the global pandemic was created artificially.

"I believe that this cannot be ruled out. It behaves very unusual. There are a finite number of viruses that infect humans in the world. We can usually guess by the symptoms of the disease which virus causes it. Of course, not 100%, but we can say: if the symptoms look like this, then this is most likely some kind of flu virus, when diarrhea is another type of virus, when a rash is one where we are looking for herpes viruses.

Therefore, when we know that the disease is caused by a coronavirus, it will have a certain course. But this coronavirus has a completely different picture, it's like a new type of disease," she said.

Comment: Much more information has come to light which provide some clues as to just where this virus may have originated:

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