Society's Child
So that means that what we are now witnessing is completely unprecedented, as The US Department of Labor reports a stunning increase of 3.3 million people sought initial jobless claims last week amid the virus lockdowns (expectation was +1.7mm)
As Bloomberg wrote earlier, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard made a shocking prediction the other day that U.S. unemployment may hit a 30% in Q2. St. Louis Fed economist Miguel Faria-e-Castro published a blog post today explaining the back-of-the-envelope methodology used to arrive at a 30% unemployment rate. He noted that about 67 million people work in jobs with high risks of layoffs, including sales, production and food preparation. In addition, 27 million people work in businesses that require close physical contact, such as barbers and restaurant wait staff.
Considering the overlap between those two groups, Faria-e-Castro averaged them and concluded that 47 million people could lose their jobs. Add the current 5.7 million unemployed workers and divide by the 165 million people in the labor force, and he got 32% unemployment.
Dr. Shiva went on to say that the media and the "Deep State" are doing the world a disservice by exaggerating the impact of the virus. The story has received over two million views since the article was published over a week ago. In the meantime, Dr. Vladimir Zelenko, a board-certified family practioner in New York, treated 350 coronavirus patients with 100% success using Hydroxychloroquine Sulfate.
Those days are gone.
The latest round of global growth revisions includes a slash of growth estimates for the first and second quarters and a very modest recovery in the third and fourth. Average GDP estimates are now down 0.7 percent, and JP Morgan expects the eurozone to enter a deep recession in the next two quarters (-1.8 percent and -3.3 percent in the first and second quarters), followed by a very poor recovery that would still leave the full-year 2020 estimate in contraction. The investment bank also assumes US slumps of 2 percent and 3 percent, respectively, but a modest full-year growth. Capital Economics estimates a hit to the US economy for the full year that would cut 0.8 percent off previous estimates though still predicting growth, but a larger impact on the eurozone, with full-year 2020 growth at an avergae of -1.2 percent, led by a -2 percent prediction for Italy. This, unfortunately, looks like just the beginning of a downgrade cycle that adds to the issue of an economy that was already slowing in 2019.
Comment: As noted above, the economic situation was dire prior to the coronavirus hysteria:
- White House and senators agree on massive $2 TRILLION coronavirus stimulus, Democrats bill rejected
- If slowing growth, unsound financial systems and the coronavirus don't trigger a market meltdown, central banks will
- Oil majors preparing for $10 oil

'People confronting universal credit's obstacles may join the half who find themselves propelled to local food banks.'
If these people once believed relentlessly misleading tabloid tales of benefit scroungers, they will have a rude awakening. They will find that when Iain Duncan Smith turned the screw on social security in 2012, he was right to warn claimants: "This is not an easy life any more, chum." As if it ever was.
The chancellor, Rishi Sunak, has done well to honour 80% of wages for those "furloughed" from shut-down businesses - up to £2,500 a month. No one knows how many that covers and at what cost, but it was a macroeconomic necessity. One worry is the incapacity of the HMRC workforce, with 15,600 staff cut and 157 local offices with local knowledge closed: can they pay the wage subsidy to companies in time to save them? Many firms could still close, sending millions into unemployment.
Comment: Like the crash of 2008, the (near) collapse of 2020 may serve as a revelation to a significant proportion of those who, despite all the signs, were unwilling to face facts about the sorry state of the society they were living in:
- Life expectancy in UK began declining at "breakpoint" year of 2011
- Peter Hitchens: Is shutting down Britain - with unprecedented curbs on ancient liberties - really the best answer?
- If slowing growth, unsound financial systems and the coronavirus don't trigger a market meltdown, central banks will
Eerie silence on streets, deserted clubs devoid of heart throbbing music and dead office spaces - sights like these are going to be the new normal for Indians during this unprecedented countrywide lockdown in response to the outbreak of the World Health Organization-declared coronavirus pandemic.
Psychologists point out that they have seen an increase in the number of queries from people who are quarantined, families that are spending more time together and parents who are worried about their kids holed up at home.
Comment: Perhaps a silver-lining to the lockdown is that some people, even if a tiny minority, might actually become reacquainted with themselves, being able to spend time alone and actually do some introspection. It may be a long shot, but forced isolation may possibly be an opportunity for growth.
See also:
- All by myself: "Alone time" can be good for you
- Science says noise hurts and silence heals
- Cut ties with energy vampires and save your sanity
- Social Nourishment + Restorative Solitude = Human Thriving
- Prepare for a real pandemic: Self-isolation may save lives, but it exacerbates mental health issues & loneliness
- Splendid isolation: how I stopped time by sitting in a forest for 24 hours
Editor's note: This is a question I keep asking, how unusual is it for a few localities in the world to have their intensive care capacities swamped with severe lower respiratory infection cases during the flu season? We are supposed to think hospitals in a few cities in the world becoming swamped in this way is highly irregular and a sign COVID-19 is a threat like no other but is that really true? Is it the case hospitals never get swamped, or is it the case the media and thus the public never before paid much attention?
One thing that is clear is that SARS-CoV-2 is a mild virus that is extremely unlikely to kill you if you become infected (see 1,2,3). Another thing which is clear is that there is no excess mortality to indicate this influenza-pneumonia-coronavirus season has been particularly bad and that SARS-CoV-2 is, therefore, killing more people than whatever coronavirus it mutated from (see 1,2). Its only remaining claim to be a greater threat than what we deal with every year without governments subjecting us to house arrest is that it has the ability to overwhelm hospitals and force doctors to ration care as is happening now in Milan and happened before in Wuhan. Well here follows a (machine-translated) report from 2018 which makes it clear the intensive care capacity of a modern European metropolis was overwhelmed just two years ago — that metropolis just happens to be Milan.
This particular swamping may not have been quite as severe, but that's not the point. The point is that if we can find a previous less severe case of swamping even for Milan itself it would indicate that globally they are not at all unusual.
If it's true that the novel coronavirus would kill millions without shelter-in-place orders and quarantines, then the extraordinary measures being carried out in cities and states around the country are surely justified. But there's little evidence to confirm that premise — and projections of the death toll could plausibly be orders of magnitude too high.
Fear of Covid-19 is based on its high estimated case fatality rate — 2% to 4% of people with confirmed Covid-19 have died, according to the World Health Organization and others. So if 100 million Americans ultimately get the disease, two million to four million could die. We believe that estimate is deeply flawed. The true fatality rate is the portion of those infected who die, not the deaths from identified positive cases.
Comment: As more and more mainstream publications are publishing articles questioning the mainstream narrative on the coronavirus, cracks start to appear in the manufactured consensus. How long will they be able to keep the population confined to their houses in the face of growing doubt?
See also:
- Interview with Professor Didier Raoult on the coronavirus
- 12 experts questioning the need for a global coronavirus lockdown
- Trump wants to have America reopened following coronavirus shutdown 'by Easter' and more corona-related updates
- European philosopher Giorgio Agamben on coronavirus: 'The enemy is not outside, it is within us'
- Coronavirus - COVID-19 - some facts & figures
- Coronavirus: Language as a Weapon of Mass Destruction
- You don't say. 'Coronavirus death rate in Wuhan 65% lower than previously thought'
I went to him with a troubling, persistent pain in a tender place. He prescribed an antibiotic. Days passed. It did not work. The pain grew worse. He declared that in that case I needed surgery, and the specialist to whom he sent me agreed with barely a glance. I was on the conveyor belt to the operating table.
In those days I believed, as so many do, in the medical profession. I was awed by their qualifications. Yet the prospect of a rather nasty operation filled me with gloom and doubt. As I waited miserably for the anaesthetist in the huge London hospital to which I had been sent, a new doctor appeared. I braced myself for another session of being asked 'Does this hurt?' and replying, between clenched teeth, that yes it blinking well did. But this third man was different. He did not ask me pointlessly if it hurt. He knew it did. He was, crucially, a thinking man who did not take for granted what he was told.
Comment: See also:
- Interview with Professor Didier Raoult on the coronavirus
- DOJ asks Congress for "indefinite detention powers" to fight the Coronavirus
- 12 experts questioning the need for a global coronavirus lockdown
- Coronavirus shutdowns: This is not sustainable
- Trump: Suicides from depression a 'far greater' risk than coronavirus unless America reopens for business soon
- 'Trump is right about the coronavirus, the WHO is wrong' - Israeli Expert
But even when the time is right — by Easter, June or the fall — there will be no one to stop the quarantine because the media will continue to hype every coronavirus death, as if these are the only deaths that count and the only deaths that were preventable.
What mayor, governor or president will be willing to take the blame for causing a coronavirus death?
We'll get no BREAKING NEWS alerts for the regular flu deaths (so far this season, more than 23,000, compared to 533 from the coronavirus).
Nor for the more than 3,000 people who die every day of heart disease or cancer. No alerts for the hundreds who die each day from car accidents, illegal aliens and suicide.
Only coronavirus deaths are considered newsworthy.
[Translation Robert Harneis - The article in French is here]
LE PARISIEN - The government has authorized a large scale clinical trial to test the effect of Chloroquine on Coronavirus. Is having got that to happen important for you?
DIDIER RAOULT - No, I couldn't care less. I think there are people living on the Moon and who contrast controlled trials for Aids with trials for a new infectious disease. Like any other doctor, once a treatment has been shown to be effective, I find it immoral not to use it. It is as simple as that.















Comment: See: Massive social difficulties loom as worldwide job losses from coronavirus lockdown and economic downturn expected to reach 25 million