Get a load of this chart from DataQuick's National Home Sales Snapshot. It'll tell you everything need to know about housing.

© DataQuick/DQNews.com
(Note:
MSA=metropolitan statistical area)
As you can see, prices are flatlining or drifting lower while sales are sinking like a stone. That's the whole ball of wax, isn't it?
Sure, sales will increase in the spring (as they always do), but judging by the sharp dropoff in last year's hottest markets, this could be the crappiest spring selling season since the crash.
Why?
Because prices are too high, rates are too high, "organic" demand is too weak, credit is too tight, and the pool of potential buyers has shrunk to the size of a walnut, that's why.
The banks have reduced the percentage of distressed homes (foreclosures and short sales) on the market to roughly 11 percent from 59 percent in 2009. Fewer distressed homes mean higher prices, but higher prices mean fewer sales. It's a trade-off. The banks get their money, but the market goes to hell. That's how it works.
According to most estimates, there are roughly 4.5 million homes in some stage of foreclosure. That means that - at the present pace - we should get through this Housing Depression a few weeks before Judgment Day. But don't hold me to that.
Did you catch this gem on
Bloomberg last week? It's about the big private equity guys exiting the market. Take a look:
"Blackstone Group LP is slowing its purchases of houses to rent amid soaring prices after a buying binge made it the biggest U.S. single-family home landlord. Blackstone's acquisition pace has declined 70 percent from its peak last year, when the private equity firm was spending more than $100 million a week on properties, said Jonathan Gray, global head of real estate for the New York-based firm...
"The institutional wave has passed," Gray, who oversees almost $80 billion in property investments, said in a telephone interview. 'It's at a much lower level than it was 12 or 24 months ago.'
Private-equity firms, hedge funds, real estate investment trusts and other institutional investors have spent more than $20 billion to buy as many as 200,000 rental homes in the last two years. They snapped up properties after prices fell as much as 35 percent from the 2006 peak...
American Homes 4 Rent and Colony American Homes, the second- and third-largest single-family landlords, also have been scaling back as bargains dry up...
"We're going to have to probably slow down a little bit on our acquisition pace until we have a better view or actual certainty of the capital being available," (Chief Executive Officer David ) Singelyn said.
Colony Financial Inc. (CLNY), a REIT that invests in Colony American Homes, slowed its funding for acquisitions last year to focus on improving operations, CEO Richard Saltzman said in a November conference call...
American Residential Properties Inc. (ARPI), a landlord with 6,000 homes, slowed acquisitions by almost half in its latest quarter ending Dec. 31. It invested $104 million in 633 homes compared with $204 million on 1,251 homes in the previous quarter, the Scottsdale, Arizona-based company said in a statement." (Blackstone's Home Buying Binge Ends as Prices Surge, Bloomberg)
Okay, so the speculators are getting out of housing. How's that going to effect the market?
Comment: For some insight into Jodi Arias, a "brilliant sociopath", see the discussion on our Forum here.