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RAND wargame simulation sees NATO lose most of Europe to Russia

Robert Farley
The National Interest
Sat, 20 Feb 2016 00:00 UTC
missile batteries
© Unknown
A recent RAND wargame on a potential Russian offensive into the Baltics brought talk of a "new Cold War" into sharp focus. The game made clear that NATO would struggle to prevent Russian forces from occupying the Baltics if it relied on the conventional forces now available.

These wargames have great value in demonstrating tactical and operational reality, which then informs broader strategic thinking. In this case, however,the headlines generated by the game have obscured more about the NATO-Russian relationship than they have revealed. In short, the NATO deterrent promise has never revolved around a commitment to defeat Soviet/Russian forces on NATO's borders. Instead, NATO has backed its political commitment with the threat to broaden any conflict beyond the war that the Soviets wanted to fight. Today, as in 1949, NATO offers deterrence through the promise of escalation.
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Jet1

Iraq & Syria: B-1 bombers removed from ISIS campaign for cockpit upgrades


RT
Sun, 21 Feb 2016 14:06 UTC
US B-1 bombers
© Cedric H. Rudisill / Reuters
The US Air Force has removed its B-1B Lancer bombers from the bombing campaign in Iraq and Syria, sending them back to the US for scheduled cockpit upgrades, the USAF Central Command reported.

With the B-1 taking a back seat, the campaign may lose a "little flexibility," but the USAF has plenty of other aircraft to compensate for the deficit, Lt. Gen. Charles Q. Brown, who heads the command, told journalists from his HQ in Qatar.

Comment: U.S. tells Russia, "stop bombing al-Qaeda", violates own UNSC resolution

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Nuke

Nineteenth week of Russian intervention in Syria: Would Putin use nukes to defend Khmeimim?

The Saker
Unz Review
Sat, 20 Feb 2016 00:00 UTC
Putin
© ouchfrandib.blogspot.com
President Putin: Will he give the go-ahead or will he rule it out?
The past week saw no decrease in the tense confrontation between Turkey and Russia over Syria. While Russia's position is simple - 'we are ready to fight' - the Turkish position is much more ambiguous: Turkish politicians are saying one thing, then the opposite and then something else again. At times they make it sound like an invasion is imminent, and at times they say that "Turkey plans no unilateral invasion". Since a UN authorized invasion of Syria will never happen, this means some kind of "coalition of the willing", possibly NATO. The problem here is that the Europeans have no desire to end up in a war against Russia. At the same time, the US and France refuse to allow a UN Resolution which would reaffirm the sovereignty of Syria. Yup, that's right. The US and France apparently think that the UN Charter (which affirms the sovereignty of all countries) does not apply to Syria. Go figure...

There are persistent rumors that top Turkish military commanders, categorically oppose any attack on Syria and that they want no part in a war with Russia. I don't blame them one bit as they understand perfectly well two simple things: first, Turkey does not need a war, only Erdogan does; second, when Turkey is defeated, Erdogan will blame the military. There are also signs of disagreements inside the USA over the prospects of such a war, with the Neocons backing Erdogan and pushing him towards war just as they had done with Saakashvili while the White House and Foggy Bottom are telling Erdogan to "cool it". As for the Turks themselves, they have shelled Kurdish and Syrian positions across the border and, on at least two occasions, a small military force has been seen crossing the border.

Comment: Russia is mighty enough to not need the nuclear option in this arena. With all decision-making parties aware of this, does this open a door for a set-up blamed on Russia? Would they chance this, knowing the payback would be swift and final?

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Play

South Front: The Russian military in Syria - what exactly does Turkey hope to achieve against them?


South Front
Sun, 21 Feb 2016 01:26 UTC
south front
Russia Defense Report - Feb. 20, 2016: Russian Military Grouping in Syria

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Phoenix

Experts say that invasion of Syria could lead to nuclear war


Washington's Blog
Fri, 19 Feb 2016 00:00 UTC
nuclear war

The Threat of Nuclear War Is Now HIGHER Than During the Soviet Era

Turkey previously shot down a Russian jet.

Now, Turkey and Saudi Arabia are threatening to invade Syria.

How dangerous could this get, in a worst case scenario?

Robert Parry - the investigative reporter who broke the Iran-Contra story for the Associated Press and Newsweek - wrote yesterday:
A source close to Russian President Vladimir Putin told me that the Russians have warned Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan that Moscow is prepared to use tactical nuclear weapons if necessary to save their troops in the face of a Turkish-Saudi onslaught. Since Turkey is a member of NATO, any such conflict could quickly escalate into a full-scale nuclear confrontation.

Comment: There are a number of observers sharing this analysis and looking at the very real possibility of nuclear war or WWIII. It would certainly seem as if all the pieces are rapidly falling into place thanks to relentless drive for dominance, chaos and destruction on the part of the U.S. and its allies. If there still exist any sane voices with influence in Washington, they should speak up right about now if only to let people in the West know what they could probably expect in the not-too-distant future.

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Attention

U.S. tells Russia, "stop bombing al-Qaeda", violates own UNSC resolution


Moon of Alabama
Sat, 20 Feb 2016 01:04 UTC
america

Because America
UN Security Council Resolution 2254 calls for a "ceasefire" in Syria. A "ceasefire", unconditioned according to the resolution, would be for the whole country but would exclude certain groups:
[r]eiterates its call in resolution 2249 (2015) for Member States to prevent and suppress terrorist acts committed specifically by Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL, also known as Da'esh), Al-Nusra Front (ANF), and all other individuals, groups, undertakings, and entities associated with Al Qaeda or ISIL, and other terrorist groups, [...] and to eradicate the safe haven they have established over significant parts of Syria, and notes that the aforementioned ceasefire will not apply to offensive or defensive actions against these individuals, groups, undertakings and entities, as set forth in the 14 November 2015 ISSG Statement;
The resolution also underlines Syria's sovereignty. The UNSC is:
Reaffirming its strong commitment to the sovereignty, independence, unity and territorial integrity of the Syrian Arab Republic, and to the purposes and principles of the Charter of the United Nations, ...
The whole UNSC, including the U.S., France and Britain, agreed to this resolution.

Comment: You can't make this stuff up.

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Footprints

NATO refuses to support Turkey in conflict with Russia


Fort Russ
Fri, 19 Feb 2016 00:00 UTC
turkey on limb
© www.woodsoutdoors.com
Lonely?
The Minister of Foreign Affairs of Luxembourg, Jean Asselborn, said today that NATO allies will not support Turkey in case of a conflict with Russia, according to Der Spiegel. According to Asselborn, the country of the North Atlantic Alliance does not intend to participate in an escalation in the conflict between Russia and Turkey.

The Foreign Minister of Luxembourg underlined that the authorities of all state-members of NATO have a common stance on this issue. "The Alliance should not be drawn into the escalating conflict between Turkey and Russia. The NATO Charter that guarantees mutual defense applies only in the case of an open attack," said Asselborn.

As a reminder, relations between the two countries are experiencing a crisis after the Turkish military shot down a Russian su-24 that was in Syria. Ankara stated that the aircraft allegedly crossed the border but did not provide evidence. The radar system of the Ministry of Defence and the government army of Syria documented that the su-24 was in Syria at the time of the attack.

Comment: Is Turkey out there on a limb by itself? That is what happens when a country puts its own agenda before that of the club. Did Turkey seek to manipulate circumstances to its own particular advantage, thinking it was going to drag in NATO to do the cleanup? Looks like it. Maybe there is a smidgen of wisdom left in the old NATO alliance that the US hasn't, likewise, managed to twist to its own advantage.

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Rocket

Russia to permanently station Kalibr cruise missile-carrying ships in the Med


RT
Sat, 20 Feb 2016 21:55 UTC
kalibr
© Ministry of defence of the Russian Federation / Sputnik
Russian corvettes equipped with Kalibr cruise missile capable of penetrating complex air defenses and hitting targets at a supersonic speed at a distance of some 2,000km will be permanently deployed in the Mediterranean, a Russian Navy admiral said.

The vessels from the Black Sea fleet will continue sailing as part of Russia's naval group in the Mediterranean tasked with supporting anti-terrorist operations in Syria, Commander Admiral Alexander Vitko announced.

"Yes, we'll have rotations and all the new ships, including the Buyan-M project vessels, will see combat duty there," Vitko told RIA Novosti. "The vessels with will be tasked with a number of tasks that they can perform through a wide range of weapons."

Comment: Meanwhile, Russia deploys advanced aircraft to Armenia:
Russia has sent five additional Mig-29 fighter jets and a multipurpose helicopter to its military base in Armenia, the Defense Ministry reported.

The aircraft have been transported to a military airfield in the Armenian capital of Yerevan and will soon arrive at Erebuni airfield, where planes attached to the 102th military are based, the command for the South-Eastern Military District said on Saturday.

"Soon military engineers will assemble generation 4+ fighter jets and the Mi-8MT helicopter, which will then enter service," the report said. "The unit's pilots will start practice flights on the new Mig-29s in mid-March."
Also: Did Russia really just threaten Turkey with tactical nuclear weapons?

Even if the story isn't true, Russia is flexing its military muscle, that's for sure. Unfortunately, you can't reason with a psychopath (i.e., the U.S.). You have to speak their language. That's what Russia seems to be doing. Let's just hope it works!

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No Entry

Obama to Syrian Kurds: Stop upsetting Ankara! Erdogan's my bro!


RT
Sat, 20 Feb 2016 07:12 UTC
E and O
© www.hurriyetdailynews.com
"We're going on an hour and 20 minutes, Erdo...how many times do I gotta tell ya...yeah, a dammed unwavering commitment... There. Done."
The US president has sided with Turkey and warned the Syrian Kurdish militia not to seize more territory in Syria to avoid upsetting Ankara or the so-called "moderate" opposition. Obama voiced support for Erdogan against the Kurdistan Workers' Party. In a long phone conversation that lasted an hour and twenty minutes, Obama told his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan that the US has an "unwavering commitment" to Turkey's national security.

Obama said he is "concerned" about the Syrian Army's and Kurdish fighters' gains in northern Syria as he "urgently called for a halt to actions that heighten tensions with Turkey and with moderate opposition forces in northern Syria," according to a statement from the White House. The US president stressed that the ongoing advance of Syrian armed forces and Kurdish militia, with support from the Russian Air Force, could "undermine our collective efforts in northern Syria to degrade and defeat ISIL."

While advising Erdogan to show "reciprocal restraint" and avoid shelling northern Syria where Ankara is engaging Kurds, Obama stressed that "YPG forces should not seek to exploit circumstances in this area to seize additional territory."

Comment: What a mess! Either this is all true - O and E are buds - or this is the face Obama is putting on to try and curb Erdogan from causing further complication and embarrassment. Is this a manipulative way of de-escalating or has Obama truly picked the side he is now stuck with? The US owes Turkey for its clandestine cover and covert facilitation of ISIS, and Turkey does not look like a fool that forgets. Obama plays all sides against the middle (and, Turkey is definitely a pain in 'Obama's side'...blackmail?).

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Bad Guys

Libyan interim govt irate at illegal U.S. airstrike that killed 2 Serbian hostages


RT
Sat, 20 Feb 2016 21:48 UTC
sabratha.gov
The Libyan interim government has condemned the US airstrike on a suspected Islamic State training camp in Sabratha in which two abducted Serbian embassy staff were killed, calling the unsanctioned bombardment a grave violation of its sovereignty.

Libya's interim government issued a statement saying that it "strongly condemns the airstrikes carried out by the US Air Force at certain positions in the town of Sabratha on Friday morning, February 19, 2016, without any coordination or consultation with the interim Libyan government."


Comment: Libya, you do not seem to understand. The U.S. doesn't 'coordinate' or 'consult'. They have given themselves the license to enter your home unannounced, eat your food, take your money, mess up the place, rape your daughters, torture your husbands, kill your sons, and then give you a bewildered look when you act ungrateful for everything they've done for you.


"Any interference, similar to the one that has taken place, will be considered an open and flagrant violation of the sovereignty of the Libyan state and international law," the statement said.

The interim government said that it values the foreign assistance it receives in the war on terror, but added that "any military or political interference into Libyan affairs should be performed in a legal way through parliament and the newly formed government."
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