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#Iran (IRGC) is sending multiple messages to the #US and #Israel by seizing the Israeli-own ship MSC ARIES in the Strait of Hormuz.

1. It is in no way a response to the violation of the Israeli bombing of a diplomatic consulate in #Syria.
2. It is a response to @JoeBiden's message to Iran saying: Don't (attack Israel). Iran says: What will you do now?
3. Responding to US officials saying that the US "will defend Israel by any means necessary". Iran says: Show us your move now!
4. A response to Israel's bombing of Iranian logistic warehouses in #Syria (not the consulate).
5. Ratcheting up tensions with Israel before the BIG HIT.
6. Cutting off the land route provided to Israel by the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Jordan by offering Israel a port at Jebel Ali where goods are transported via the Trucknet Israeli-Eilat base company to bypass the Yemen Ansar'Allah blockade.
7. The Strait of Hormuz will be closed in case of war (20% of world transit commerce and oil). Expect inflation and oil prices to reach the sky if this conflict continues.

• Iran seizes Israel-linked ship MCS Aries in Gulf

OPINION: IRAN WILL NOT STRIKE ISRAEL IN THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS

I doubt Iran will strike Israel within the next 24-48 hours. The claims from NATO intelligence, Mossad, and the mainstream media lead me to believe it's unlikely. It seems they're attempting to coerce Iran into premature action or provoke a major escalation that would involve the US, UK, and other allies.

Israel has been eager to involve US and NATO in this conflict, as seen with their bombing in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Iran.

If Iranian intelligence has been leaked, it could suggest a weakness in Iranian intelligence, which seems improbable.

The evacuation of embassies and the media reports, along with claims from intelligence agencies about an imminent attack, appear to be part of a psychological operation aimed at pushing Iran into a strategic misstep.

Let's spend coffee time playing a little wargame in which the US decides to take on Iran and commit to a full war against it

Look at this map. Where could the US stage an invasion of Iran?

To Iran's east, you'll find Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Turkmenistan. A big triple no.
To Iran's south: the Persian Gulf which it completely dominates. No good.
To Iran's west: Iraq and Turkiye. The first a definite no, the second, a no so probable it must be considered a certain. Turkiye will not go to war with Iran for the US and Israel - a war not only sure to decimate it, but a war Turkich people will be fanatically against.
To Iran's north is the Caspian Sea. No use.

Azerbaijan and Armenia present an opening, but how will hundreds of thousands of NATO soldiers get there (let alone undetected)? If they go by sea, they will need to traverse the Mediterranean and the Black Sea and virtually physically go through Istanbul. Not only politically complicated, but a long long journey that gives Iran tons of time to prepare.

Remember the months and months the US took to amass forces for the Iraq invasion? It took 6 months or so - with no interruptions.

The problem is, with Iran, there's no way they're going to simply build up forces near the designated target's borders.

Iran has an arsenal of hundreds of thousands of guided and precise ballistic missiles, satellites in space and eyes almost everywhere. If a war is declared or started, every American asset within 0-3000 kilometers of Iran's borders will be bombarded so viciously no missile defense system will be able to stop it.

And all those dozens and dozens of American bases scattered throughout the vast area surrounding Iran? How will the US defend them under an attack on a scale of 1000 October 7th's combined?

Additionally, Iran has the most sophisticated anti-ship missiles in the world (Russia's Yakhont), of which it probably has thousands by now. This means no surface ship is going to be able to come close enough to Iran to make it an effective striking weapon (is this going to be the first time we get to see an aircraft carrier drowning? I believe potentially yes).

Bearing in mind Yemen's Ansra Allah alone has done a good job of driving the West out of the Red Sea.

The US will have to rely on air superiority, but this is going to prove a very difficult, almost impossible task. US planes will have to fly a long way to get to Iran (and back), and it has invested massively in air defense systems, including some of the most sophisticated in Russia's arsenal. The US will lose many planes which will take years to replenish, and Iran will be able to target with ballistic missiles and drones all the bases from which they take off in Europe or the Middle East.

Another tool the US will use is cruise missiles fired from submarines: but this, too, does not win wars, and can be costly against a rival that prepared for this.

A full-scale invasion of Iran will require potentially millions of soldiers and will take years. The West is simply incapable of an effort of this kind: where will they find millions of young men willing to die at sea in order to occupy a country thousands of miles away? Today? Give me a break.

All this time the Iranians will be defending their home and their independence. The West will be trying to colonize and destroy them. They will have Gaza on their minds.
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I didn't mention Israel because it is virtually irrelevant in this war. Hizbullah alone is enough to paralyze it and keep its military busy for months.
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Bonus point: think about what happens to energy prices in an actual war with Iran. 500$ for an oil barrel? 1000$? 2000$? All is possible.

Guess what country will remain the biggest international producer and exporter of oil and gas, and rip all those extra many, many trillions. You guessed right. Russia. If the Persian Gulf is up in flames, Russia will become a global economic superpower (at a time when the US is dwindled militarily and economically and cannot even fake a military threat against it).
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Another bonus point: you think Iran cannot, or will not attack on American soil? Think again. From cyber attacks to large-scale, professional, military-level sabotage and guerrilla warfare, in a war with Iran life in the US will definitely not be business as usual, and not only because inflation will be something 200%, and thousands of dead soldiers will return home in coffins every month for a long time.
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The US cannot win a war against Iran. And I believe all parties involved know it. The only thing that remains unknown is how insane and self-destructive the US has become under Netanyahu's and AIPAC's, how shall we call it, influence

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Some vital additional context:

This war, if it does break, will take place right at the doorstep of both Russia and China. And this is highly significant for a number of reasons:

1. Logistically, this proximity guarantees Iran will have easy access to virtually unlimited shipments of arms and munitions by land, sea, and air. The Western logistical mission will be 100 times more difficult.

2. Both Russia and China must hate very much the idea of an American takeover of Iran. Russia because it knows this new territory will be used for further hostilities against it, potentially complicating its Ukraine campaign. Russia has never had to seriously defend against strategic hostile activity from this area, and it knows it cannot allow this to happen. China knows that an American takeover of Iran will put its Belt and Road initiative in shambles, and will provide the American a huge new platform to mess with China and try to destabilize it.

3. This is not 2002. By now it is clear to everyone involved that US influence is poisonous and destructive on a massive scale. We all saw Iraq, Libya, Yemen, Syria, and Afghanistan. By now it is exceedingly clear the US it literally destroying human society to remain the sole source of power, money, and stability. Opposition to US interventionism today is much more deeply rooted and widespread than 30 years ago. The Americans will be perceived as reckless destructive imperialists, and Russia and China will be the ones working for order and normalcy. In going to war against Iran the US will undertake not only an impossible military task, it will have to relinquish any remaining pretense it has as a civilizational power for good. This will have a major, major impact on American anti-war movements at home. No one can anticipate what this new political awareness (already crystalizing over Gaza) will do to America itself, as regards its relative political stability.

Victor Clube: "We do not need the celestial threat to disguise Cold War intentions; rather we need the Cold War to disguise celestial intentions!"

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