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The 7 March warning from US Embassy Moscow was initiated in Washington, DC from State Department. Secretary of State Blinken signed off on it. And the nature of the warning shows that it was based on intelligence — i.e., from a human source and/or electronic intercept — that was considered "credible." It also had a high degree of specificity not normally seen in these types of warnings (at least what I have seen starting in October 1985 thru October 2016).If a foreign nation warns you of a potential attack on a specific location and gives you a specific time period, how long should you be on the lookout? Another couple days, a week, a month, a year?The Embassy is monitoring reports that extremists have imminent plans to target large gatherings in Moscow, to include concerts, and U.S. citizens should be advised to avoid large gatherings over the next 48 hours.During the last 35 years I do not recall a single instance in which the State Department issued a warning like this specifying a specific time period for vigilance. The warning itself implies intelligence that provided a specific timeframe for the attack. So, when the attack does not happen, you need to go back to the analysts and ask, WTF!!! If the analysts had said, "Oh, wait, the Russians boosted security at the Crocus City Hall on 8 March and scared off the attack," then the next question should have been, "Do you still believe there will be another attempt?" The analysts could have said yes, no or maybe.
So, if you believe the intelligence is credible then it was incumbent on the USG to issue another warning to continue to avoid large gatherings, such as concert halls. The USG did not do that.
Nope. The USG is pushing the line that "We warned the Russians and they did not act." Sure looks like a psy-op to me designed to paint Putin as a heartless goon who ignored our intelligence. [...]
The "American intelligence experts" are misrepresenting what was publicly released. It did not say, "Starting from today, 7 March, extremists intend to attack large gatherings, including concerts; therefore American citizens should avoid these places until further notice." NOPE! Just for 48 hours. It is a very dangerous game that is being played here.
"We are attached to a drip. We have enough drugs to stay alive. But, if the West wants us to win, we need the full treatment," he admitted, referring to the dwindling quantities of military aid coming from Kiev's western backers.
Legend has it that a frog placed in a shallow pot of water heating on a stove will remain happily in the pot of water as the temperature continues to climb, and will not jump out even as the water slowly reaches the boiling point and kills the frog. The change of one degree of temperature at a time is so gradual that the frog doesn't realize he is being boiled until it is too late.While the story is an apologue - a pretty fable meant to convey a meaningful lesson - it is one frequently invoked by militaries and geopoliticians to describe the "long game" of reaching strategic objectives.
Comment: For now, this appears to primarily be belligerent rhetoric, because at least some analysts say that Ukraine can't join whilst involved in a conflict and with ongoing border disputes.
However, Russia has discussed creating a demilitarised zone, and so it is possible that this will compel it to neutralise Ukrainian regions even further West than they would have otherwise. Furthermore, this speaks more to the desperation of the West, and to Russia's upper hand, which it could maintain so long as it doesn't, precipitously, escalate the situation. And, amidst all this, the West ruins itself, its position on the global stage, and its ability to provoke the rising multipolar world.
Footage, and relevant snippet from the X post, below:
More NATO involvement in Ukraine doesn't bode well, as the following highlights:
See also: Medvedev: 'Ukraine is definitely Russia', rules out peace talks with Zelensky, presents controversial map of Kiev