Okay, I admit it, the title is rather hyperbolic :-) But here is what I am trying to say: there are signs that Russia is intervening in the Belarusian crisis (finally!).
First and foremost, we can see a truly radical change in Lukashenko's policies: if his initial instinct was to unleash a brutal repression of both the violent rioters and the peaceful demonstrators, now he has made a 180 and the outcome is quite amazing:
on Sunday there were large anti-Lukashenko demonstrations yet not a single person was detained. Not one. Even more amazing is this: the Polish-run Nexta Telagram channel (which is the main medium used by the Empire to overthrow Lukashenko) initially called for a peaceful protest, but at the end of the day
a call was made to try to take over the main Presidential building. When the rioters (at this point we are dealing with an illegal, violent, attempt to overthrow the state - so I don't call these people demonstrators) got to the building they were faced with a real "wall" of riot cops in full gear: this (really scary) sight was enough to stop the rioters who stood for a while, and then had to leave.
Second, Lukashenko did something rather weird, but which makes perfectly good sense in the Belarusian context: he dressed himself in full combat gear, grabbed an AKSU-74 assault rife, dressed his (15 year old!) son also in full combat gear (helmet included) and flew in his helicopter over Minsk and then landed in the Presidential building. They then walked to the riot cops, where Lukashenko warmly thanked them and which resulted in the full police force giving him a standing ovation. To most of us this behavior might look rather outlandish if not outright silly. But in the context of the Belarusian crisis, which is a crisis primarily fought in the informational realm, it makes perfectly good sense.
- Last week Lukashenko said that no other elections, never mind a coup, will happen as long as he is alive.
- This time Lukashenko decided to show, symbolically, that he is in charge and that he will die fighting along his son if needed.
The message here is clear: "
I am no Ianukovich and, if needed, I will die just like Allende died".
Comment: See also: