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U.S. issues travel warning for Israel with Iran attack believed to be imminent and fear Gaza war could spread Israel is bracing for a worst-case scenario that U.S. officials believe could materialize within just hours — the possibility of a direct attack on Israeli soil by Iran in retaliation for a strike almost two weeks ago that killed seven Iranian military officers. Iran has vowed to take revenge for Israel killing its commanders, who were hit by an April 1 strike on the Iranian embassy in Syria's capital.

Which is considered Iranian territory, and therefore can be construed as an act of war.

Two U.S. officials told CBS News that a major Iranian attack against Israel was expected as soon as Friday, possibly to include more than 100 drones and dozens of missiles aimed at military targets inside the country.

The officials said it would be challenging for the Israelis to defend against an attack of such a magnitude, and while they held out the possibility that the Iranians could opt for a smaller-scale attack to avoid a dramatic escalation, their retaliation was believed to be imminent.

Tehran has not indicated publicly how or when it will return fire — so it's unclear how far Iran's leaders will go. If they decide to carry out a direct attack on Israel, there's fear it could blow Israel's ongoing war against Iranian ally Hamas up into a much wider regional conflict.

With the Iranian retaliation expected at any time, the U.S. State Department on Thursday warned Americans in Israel not to travel outside major cities, which are better protected from incoming rocket fire by the country's Iron Dome missile defense system.

Except if Iran and the axis of resistance launched an attack against the cities, the Iron Dome probably wouldn't be able to fend it off entirely.

The latest guidance noted that travel by U.S. government employees in Israel could be further restricted with little notice as things develop in the tinderbox region.

"Whoever harms us, we will harm them," Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed Thursday as he visited troops at an Israel Defense Forces airbase. "We are prepared... both defensively and offensively."

Sima Shine, a security expert and former official with Israel's national intelligence agency Mossad, told CBS News it was a dangerous moment for the region, and the "most worried" she has been. She said anxiety over an all-out war was likely just as high "on both sides, in Israel and in Iran."

If Israel was so 'worried' it wouldn't have attacked Iran. As it is, it seems that Israel's intent is to escalate and widen the war, as well as to drag the US further into it.

If Iran does choose to strike Israel directly, it could involve a complex missile and drone attack similar to the one Iranian forces launched against a Saudi oil facility in 2019.

"They will try to do it on the military or some military asset," Shine predicted. "But the question will be the damage. If there would be many injured people, killed or injured... I think it has the potential for a huge escalation."

Shine stressed, however, that she still believes neither side actually wants a regional conflict.

U.S. "really trying to avoid war"

The U.S. sent a senior general to Israel this week to coordinate with the close American ally on any response it might make to an Iranian attack and, speaking Friday on "CBS Mornings," America's top military officer said, "we're really trying to avoid war."

"This is part of the dialogue that I have with my counterparts within the region, to include the Israeli chief of defense, who I talked to yesterday," said Joint Chiefs chairman Gen. Charles Q. Brown, Jr., adding that the U.S. military was "doing things not only to prevent a war, but at the same time, one of my primary things is to make sure all the forces in the region are protected."

"My role, as the chairman of the joint chiefs, is to plan and prepare," Brown said. "That's one thing we do very well."

The dilemma for Iran, said Israeli expert Shine, is to figure out how to deliver its promised response to Israel's attack in Syria, but in a way that does not lead to further escalation. Likewise, Shine said Israel could choose to show restraint when it responds to whatever Iran eventually does.

If either side gets the balance wrong, the consequences for the region, and even the world, could be dire.

Russia on Thursday advised against travel to the Middle East and German airline Lufthansa extended a suspension of its flights to Tehran, as the region was kept on edge by Iran's threat to retaliate against Israel for an attack in Syria.

"We strongly recommend that Russian citizens refrain from traveling to the region, especially to Israel, Lebanon and the Palestinian territories, except in cases of extreme necessity," it said.

"The tense situation in the Middle East region persists," said the foreign ministry, which first issued such travel advice in October when it urged Russians not to visit Israel and the Palestinian territories after Hamas attacked Israel.

Israel has not declared its responsibility for the April 1 attack, for which Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said on Wednesday Israel "must be punished and it shall be", saying it was tantamount to an attack on Iranian soil.

India on Friday issued an advisory urging citizens not to travel to Iran or Israel following a sharp rise in tensions between the two sides and asked all Indian nationals living in the two countries to observe "utmost precautions" for their safety.

"In view of the prevailing situation in the region, all Indians are advised not to travel to Iran or Israel till further notice," said the advisory issued by the external affairs ministry.

"All those who are currently residing in Iran or Israel are requested to get in touch with Indian Embassies there and register themselves. They are also requested to observe utmost precautions about their safety and restrict their movements to the minimum," the advisory said.

[...]

The first batch of 64 Indian workers travelled to Israel on April 2 and 6,000 more were expected to be sent during April and May to help Israel's construction sector overcome a labour shortage created by the withdrawal of work permits for Palestinian workers.

The people said Indian authorities are working on various contingencies, including the possible evacuation of Indian nationals from Iran and Israel.

US / Israel Threats Against Iran Are Almost Certainly A Bluff

Here's why I think so:

Russia and China have now made their mutual defense alliance EXPLICIT.

But, as tensions with Iran rise to a boil, few seem aware that both Russia and China now regard Iran as a KEY geopolitical ally and a paramount geostrategic interest — and have therefore forged long-term economic and military agreements with Iran.

Russia and China will NOT stand idly by as the US and Israel make war against Iran.

That said, Iran can almost certainly defend itself quite successfully for at least many weeks against a US / Israel air campaign. In fact, in the face of even a few dozen aircraft losses, and severe damage to US bases in the region, I believe the US would seek an early exit from the conflict.

The simple fact is that US air power as a theater-wide undertaking could not be sustained in the context of a non-permissive battlefield against a peer adversary.

As for Israel — without direct and massive US assistance, the Israelis could not sustain a credible air campaign against Iran, and the Iranians would inflict substantial damage against both Israeli aircraft and their bases.

US/Israeli strike missile inventories would be exhausted LONG BEFORE the Iranians lost the capacity to shoot back.

And, make no mistake, if the Iranians ask for material assistance from Russia and/or China, they will not be denied.

The Russians and the Chinese are FAR PAST being intimidated by US threats. They will act without hesitation to protect their interests. They understand perfectly well that the US military is fatally overextended and acutely depleted.

In light of these realities, I remain highly dubious that the US will make open war against Iran.

In fact, if the Iranians do little more than execute a relatively proportional counterstrike against Israel in retaliation for the Iranian embassy attack, I don't believe the US/Israel will escalate the situation any further. I think their tough talk in recent days is nothing but an empty bluff.

OPINION: IRAN WILL NOT STRIKE ISRAEL IN THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS

I doubt Iran will strike Israel within the next 24-48 hours. The claims from NATO intelligence, Mossad, and the mainstream media lead me to believe it's unlikely. It seems they're attempting to coerce Iran into premature action or provoke a major escalation that would involve the US, UK, and other allies.

Israel has been eager to involve US and NATO in this conflict, as seen with their bombing in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Iran.

If Iranian intelligence has been leaked, it could suggest a weakness in Iranian intelligence, which seems improbable.

The evacuation of embassies and the media reports, along with claims from intelligence agencies about an imminent attack, appear to be part of a psychological operation aimed at pushing Iran into a strategic misstep.

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