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Are Israel and the US prepping for war in the Middle East?

Girl writes on rocket shell
© AP
The Israeli Army allows girls to write messages on shells at a heavy artillery position near Kiryat Shmona, in northern Israel, next to the Lebanese border.
Despite the lack of visible preparation for war, the Lebanese authorities consider it important to take all necessary precautions for a possible Israeli attack on Lebanon. Israel is not alone; this time its forces enjoy unlimited military support from the US administration through the US forces stationed in Israel and in various bases in the Middle East. Israel also enjoys financial support from Middle Eastern countries, mainly Saudi Arabia, in case of a punitive war against non-state allies of Iran. Indeed, Israel sent a sharp message to the Lebanese authorities revealing its intention to bomb selected targets in the country, considered threatening by Israel. Lebanon answered: "a bombing of targets in Lebanon will be met with a similar bombing in Israel and we are ready for a possible escalation if it is imposed on us".

The US and Israel are working side-by-side against Iran and its allies/partners in the Middle East. In Lebanon, the Lebanese authorities received an official warning, via France, revealing the intention of Israel to bomb specific locations in Lebanon, claimed to host missile factories. The local authorities answered:
"Lebanon shall not initiate a war against Israel. But if any location in Lebanon is bombed, a similar and equivalent and precise location in Israel will be bombed. If Israel bombs several locations, Lebanon will respond by bombing an equivalent number of locations and objectives. If Israel escalates, Lebanon will follow and the response may spill over the borders of Lebanon where its allies may not hesitate to take part in a war against Israel."

"Unlike the US military, Israel has air force superiority in the Middle East. The US forces can only offer military advice, intelligence, interception missiles batteries, supply of weapons and ammunition, exert pressure on Middle Eastern countries (mainly Saudi Arabia and the Emirates) to finance a military campaign with the objective to cripple Iran's allies in the region, and make sure the UN is not taking any resolution against any possible Israeli aggression. But real attacks are normally carried out by the Israel Air Force."
Notwithstanding the non-state militant leadership in Lebanon who "personally estimate that the possibility of war is unlikely", "worst-case scenarios have been laid down by the high military command", as the leader of Hezbollah said in his last speech, reminding his listeners of "the treacherous capacity of Israel" (to start a sudden war).

Comment: Other articles by Elijah Magnier on this topic:


Snakes in Suits

Trump to designate Brazil a 'major non-NATO ally'

TrumpBolsonaro
© REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque
President of Brazil Jair Bolsonaro • US President Donald Trump
President Donald Trump will designate Brazil as a "major non-NATO ally," in recognition of the South American state's deepening defense cooperation with the US, says Trump's notification to the Congress.

Trump announced the decision in a White House press release on Wednesday. As a non-NATO ally, Brazil would become a preferred buyer of US military equipment, would participate in Pentagon military auctions, and would participate in military exercises and training operations with US forces. Seventeen other countries, including Israel, Japan, South Korea and Australia hold equivalent status.

Trump also announced back in March that he was "very strongly" considering NATO membership for Brazil, during a visit from Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro to the White House.

NATO leadership is a little cooler towards the idea of Brazilian integration. Secretary-General of the alliance Jens Stoltenberg said last week that Brazil may not join the military pact, but could become "a very close partner" of the group.

Comment: See also: Trump: US strongly looking at Brazil for NATO membership


Arrow Down

Pence: US has removed all sanctions on Venezuelan military official who joined Guaido (only one?)

Pence
© AP/Tony Dejak
US VP Mike Pence
The United States has lifted all sanctions on Venezuela's former intelligence service chief Gen. Manuel Cristopher Figuera after he broke ranks with President Nicolas Maduro last week to support opposition leader Juan Guaido, US Vice President Mike Pence said in a speech.

Pence told the Washington Conference on the Americas held at the State Department on Tuesday:
"In recognition of his recent actions in support of democracy and the rule of law, I'm announcing today that the United States of American is removing all sanctions on General Manuel Cristopher Figuera effective immediately."
The US Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) designated Figuera on 15 February under the heading current or former official in the Maduro government. The Treasury Department said in a statement on Tuesday that the decision to remove all of Figuera's sanctions demonstrates Washington's intent to bring a positive change of behavior through sanctions.

Moreover, the US will hold all 25 Venezuelan Supreme Court magistrates accountable if they do not uphold the rule of law in the country, Pence said.
"It is time for the Supreme Court in Venezuela to return to its founding purpose. If the Supreme Court of Venezuela does not return to its constitutional mandate to uphold the rule of law, the United States of America will hold all 25 of its magistrates accountable for their actions".
Pence said the Venezuelan Supreme Court has undermined its constitutional mandate and become a political tool.

Comment: See also:


Nuke

Tehran wants nuclear deal to come 'back on track', says Iran's AEO spokesman

2 guys Iran
© Reuters/Raheb Homavandi
The spokesman for Iran's Atomic Energy Organization says Tehran wants to bring the nuclear deal "back on track," after the country announced it would suspend some of the pact's restrictions in response to US sanctions.

"Our goal is to strengthen the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action) and bring it back on track," spokesman Behrouz Kamalvandi said, Iranian news agency IRNA reports.

Iran said it would suspend restrictions on storing enriched uranium and heavy water as European members of the other JCPOA countries were not keeping their promises to protect its banking and oil sectors from US sanctions. It gave the countries a 60-day deadline to fulfill their promises and save the nuclear pact.

Comment: More from RT: EU warns '3rd parties' not to impede Iran deal negotiations
A joint statement issued Thursday by the EU and Foreign Ministers of France, Germany and the UK reaffirmed their collective commitment to the Iran deal. It also strongly hints that potential US intrusion on the issue is unwelcome.

"We call on countries not party to the JCPOA to refrain from taking any actions that impede the remaining parties' ability to fully perform their commitments," the statement outlined.

On Wednesday, Tehran announced that it would no longer adhere fully to commitments made as part of the original nuclear deal with the P5+1 (the permanent members of the UN Security Council and Germany).

The EU statement comes after the Trump administration responded to Tehran by imposing a raft of new sanctions on entities trading in steel, iron, copper and aluminum and related products with Iran. The decision was taken exactly one year after the US withdrew from the Obama-era Iran deal.
See also:


Dollars

Austrian Chancellor Kurz calls for new EU treaty, chides bloc members who 'gladly take our money'

Sebastian Kurz
© Reuters/Simon Dawson
Austrian Chancellor Sebastian Kurz
Austrian Chancellor Sebastian Kurz scolded members of the EU, who are too eager to "cash in" on the bloc's funds, while having large debts. To fix the union, it needs a new treaty altogether, Kurz believes.

The bold remarks were made by Austria's chancellor right ahead of the EU leaders summit in Romania, where he is expected to table his proposals. In order to "reserve" the EU, the bloc needs a new fundamental agreement instead of the Lisbon Treaty, Kurz believes.

"Many, above all the younger heads of government, know that we must change the European Union if we want to preserve it," Kurz told Austrian broadcaster ORF on Thursday. "Various heads of government among the liberals but also within the [conservative] European People's Party have a similar view to me."

Kurz did not elaborate on who these like-minded politicians are exactly, while leaders of the EU countries seem to be quite silent about the prospects of any amendments to the bloc's treaty. The changes, proposed by Austria's chancellor include introduction of penalties for countries that have been taking in way too many migrants and have large - and growing - debts, while leeching from the bloc.

"We are talking here about countries that gladly take our money and are fully prepared to cash in," Kurz stated.

Question

Just asking...what will it take to get Bolton fired?

TrumpBolton
© Gints Ivuskans/shutterstock
Donald Trump and his National Security Advisor John Bolton during NATO Summit 2018.
Jason Rezaian engages in a bit of wishful thinking of his own:
Is John Bolton about to get the Iran war he's always wanted, or is he on the verge of losing his job?

Over the past several days, President Trump's national security adviser has made comments and issued statements about Iran and Venezuela that are usually reserved for the run-up to military campaigns.

Yet Bolton's boss doesn't seem to be playing along.
There is an understandable desire to see Bolton and Trump sharply at odds over foreign policy, but I'm not sure why anyone thinks it is happening. In the L.A. Times article I cited earlier, there is a quote from former ambassador Christopher Hill where he says something similar:
"The president is so dead set against military engagement anywhere, and Bolton is so dead set on military engagement, it has left the administration speaking without one voice and overall being sort of feckless."
If Trump and Bolton disagreed with each other this much, it is difficult to explain why Bolton is still allowed to have free rein in making the administration's foreign policy.

Comment: See also: Could we be watching John Bolton's last stand?


Mr. Potato

Dems vote to hold AG in contempt as Trump asserts executive privilege over full Mueller report

nadler hearing Barr
© Chip Somodevilla/Getty
House Judiciary Committee Chairman Jerrold Nadler presides over a hearing in the Rayburn House Office Building on Capitol Hill, May 08, 2019, in Washington.
The House Judiciary Committee, led by Chairman Jerry Nadler, voted along party lines Wednesday to advance a resolution to hold Attorney General Bill Barr in contempt of Congress for not complying with a subpoena for special counsel Robert Mueller's unredacted report, after President Donald Trump asserted executive privilege over Mueller's findings.

The moves marked an escalation in tensions between Democrats and the Trump administration, and set up a likely battle in the courts as Democrats work to review Mueller's conclusions.

"There can be no higher stakes than this attempt to take all power away from Congress and away from the American people. We are in a constitutional crisis," Nadler said following the committee action.

The resolution, passed after more than six hours of sharp debate, could receive a vote on the House floor in the coming weeks.

Comment: And in a struggle to stay relevant, Schiffy decides to get in on the action:
Attorney General William Barr is facing a second House subpoena, this one from intelligence committee chair Adam Schiff, as Democrats double down on their quest for the unredacted Mueller report and the evidence behind it.

Barr's Justice Department "has repeatedly failed to respond, refused to schedule any testimony, and provided no documents responsive to our legitimate and duly authorized oversight activities," Schiff said in a statement on Wednesday.

Schiff's subpoena follows on the heels of the House Judiciary Committee's decision to hold Barr in contempt for refusing to provide an unredacted copy of the special counsel's report in response to committee chair Jerrold Nadler's own subpoena, issued last month after the release of the (redacted) Mueller report failed to satisfy impeachment-hungry Democrats. The full House will vote on whether to refer Barr's contempt charge to the US Attorney for the District of Columbia, who would decide on prosecution.

Barr has until May 15 to produce documents related to the Mueller probe for the Intel Committee. President Donald Trump invoked executive privilege over the unredacted report and the materials behind it on Wednesday morning, calling Nadler's subpoena a "blatant abuse of power," prompting the charges against Barr.

The Justice Department did offer select lawmakers the option to look at a less-redacted version of the report in a secure location, but only Republicans took the offer. Nadler, meanwhile, denounced the president's stonewalling as an "assertion of tyrannical power" and a "constitutional crisis."

Last week, Barr opened an investigation into allegations the FBI and Justice Department spied on Trump's campaign in 2016, hinting in his announcement that he was targeting senior figures in both agencies and planned to concentrate on when intelligence collection had begun and how many spies the FBI had inside the campaign. The probe is in addition to Justice Department Inspector General Michael Horowitz's own investigation into the legality of the FISA warrant used to surveil Trump aide Carter Page, which is expected to conclude next month.

With no proof of collusion or obstruction to be found in the 90 percent of the Mueller report currently available for the public to read, House Democrats are hoping the last 10 percent holds the "roadmap to obstruction" that will pry Trump out of the White House once and for all. Barr, who redacted the document in cooperation with Special Counsel Robert Mueller, says the redactions were necessary to avoid interfering with ongoing criminal cases or revealing investigative techniques, as well as to protect grand jury testimony and the privacy of tangentially-related individuals.



Bullseye

Russian UN envoy: ICC won't revive reputation after dropping US war crimes probe

ICC building
© AFP 2019 / Martijn Beekman
ICC building
Moscow doubts that the ICC will be able to restore its reputation in light of the court's recent decision to drop a probe into allegations of US war crimes in Afghanistan, Russia's Deputy Permanent Representative to the United Nations Gennady Kuzmin said during a UN Security Council meeting on Libya.

On 12 April, the International Criminal Court (ICC) dropped a probe into possible US war crimes in Afghanistan just weeks after Trump administration officials threatened to sanction and prosecute ICC judges. The ICC chamber argued that because Washington is unlikely to cooperate, a probe would not serve the "interests of justice", despite the evidence that war crimes had likely been committed.

"For those who still naively believe in the shining image of the ICC as a champion of justice, I would recommend that you look at the decision of the judges from the 12th of April this year [...] My fear that after such an elegant verdict describing the 'interests of justice' as the ICC understands it, it will never be able to restore its reputation. With this judicial policy the investigation in respect of Libya will hardly be able to achieve any credible results", Kuzmin said on Wednesday.

Vader

Fmr UN rapporteur: US to increase pressure on Venezuela, may try to kill Maduro

maduro
© AP Photo / Miraflores Press Office / Jhonn Zerp
The US-backed coup attempt in Venezuela is not going well, with the Bolivarian Republic's army and senior officials still standing up for legitimately elected President Nicolas Maduro. Speaking to Sputnik, Alfred de Zayas, an American lawyer, and Professor Julia Buxton shared their views on Washington's failed efforts to oust Maduro.

According to Alfred de Zayas, an American lawyer, writer, historian, and former UN rapporteur to Venezuela, Washington's failure to replace Maduro with Juan Guaido, the self-proclaimed interim president, may prompt the US to try to kill the legitimate head of Venezuela.

"I know from reliable sources that for several months now the US has been offering vast amounts of money and promising other perks to any military who will defect", he told Sputnik. "Undoubtedly they have financed each and every coup attempt, including failed attempts to have Maduro assassinated. The US will continue on this path, and maybe they will succeed in having Maduro murdered".

Chess

New Zealand breaks from Western Empire, becomes first Five Eyes country to join China's Belt and Road project

jacinda arden and xi
© RAO AIMIN/XINHUA/ALAMY
Jacinda Ardern in Beijing with President Xi last month
New Zealand has broken away from its western intelligence allies with an offer to support China's contentious global infrastructure and investment project.

The Belt and Road initiative involves Chinese state banks offering funds to develop transport schemes around the world to facilitate trade.

Supporters present it as a development initiative but critics say it is primarily to advance Beijing's strategic interests, and even a form of "debt colonialisation". Beijing has recently tried to recast the programme, promising to improve standards and transparency.

Jacinda Ardern, the New Zealand prime minister, said she believed the scheme had "really evolved" and her government was prepared to offer Beijing advice on expanding it. Her trade minister, David Parker, said that New Zealand believed that it could "find a win-win situation with China".