It is hard to imagine a handling of the Russia-Ukraine war more catastrophic than under the Presidency of Joe Biden. With every passing day, Ukraine becomes increasingly indebted, broken and depopulated.
Would Trump be able to end the war in 24 hours as he suggests? We can garner some clues from his first Presidency. How does then compare to now in terms of what Trump might achieve?
From the moment he took office in January 2017, President Trump was swimming against a fast moving tide of bipartisan resistance to engagement with Russia. Mainstream western press coverage of his efforts was consistently stained with the unattractive tint of Russian collusion.
Fears that Trump would get too close to Putin undoubtedly contributed to the agreement by Congress and the Senate of the sweeping Countering American Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) which Trump was forced to sign into U.S. Law in August 2017. CAATSA was largely a codification of existing sanctions under a single umbrella. But in terms of the economics, CAATSA led inter alia to massive disruption to global aluminium markets after the U.S. sanctioned oligarch Oleg Deripaska and Rusal in April 2018.
The Kremlin responded with a massive expulsion of U.S. diplomats and locally employed embassy staff in Russia, amounting to 755 staff in total. Add another 60 U.S. diplomats expelled in April 2018. Bilateral U.S.-Russia diplomatic relations had never been so bad. CAATSA also caused fractures in U.S. relations with key EU Member States, because it restricted European companies' scope to trade with Russia, if those companies had U.S. holdings.
Comment: Interesting analysis, given that time, circumstance and sabotage will impact and contour both efforts and results.