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On May 8, Belarussians awoke to rare news. Valery Tsepkalo, an architect of their nation's tech industry, was calling for a revolution. "I dream of a country," Tsepkalo wrote on Facebook, "where people own property. Where people openly, freely and without fear can express their opinion. A country where vulgarity and rudeness will be eliminated from the political leadership."

Tsepkalo, a 55-year-old politics grad, began his diplomatic career as Lukashenko's ambassador to the US and Mexico from 1997 to 2002. Enchanted by America's tech scene, Tsepkalo founded incubator Hi-Tech Park (HTP) in a quiet corner of Minsk, Belarus's capital city, in 2005. Local entrepreneurs, enticed by massive tax breaks, flocked. In 2009 Tsepkalo told Der Spiegel he believed a "Belarusian Silicon Valley" was emerging.

He was right. Today, HTP is home to a quarter of Belarus' thousand-plus startups. Technology and science products now constitute over a third of the country's exports. In the past five years, Belarus' software exports grew by a staggering 20 times. EPAM Systems Inc., an outsourcing firm founded in 1993, has revenues of £2.3 billion and is listed on the New York Stock Exchange.
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Lukashenko called the Internet "garbage," and entrepreneurs "lousy fleas." He struggled to pronounce "iPhone". But the sector's success has forced him to U-turn, and in recent years Lukashenko has been 'hello fellow kids'-ing an industry now worth around 6.5 per cent of his GDP.
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"[The] creation of an IT state is our ambitious but reachable goal," Lukashenko told bureaucrats in 2017. That year, he granted visa-free entry to citizens of 79 countries, and legalised transfers in cryptocurrency - a move designed to attract blockchain startups. Rich Belarusian tech entrepreneurs started travelling all over the world, bringing back enviable tales of democracy and free media.
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That year Lukashenko also sacked Tsepkalo as head of HTP. Tsepkalo - slim, bald, perennially besuited - then wandered the former USSR, teaching governments how to build their own Silicon Valleys. In 2018 he founded Prabook.com, a biographic library that looked a lot like Wikipedia.

On May 8 2020, Tsepkalo suddenly returned to Belarusian politics. The announcement that day, to run against his former boss, left little room for pleasantries.

Recession has already hit Belarus, reliant on oil and machinery exports, hard. Lukashenko joked morbidly that compatriots would come at him "with pitchforks" if the economy worsens. It will. The World Bank says Belarus' economy will shrink by 4 per cent this year.
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Lukashenko's refusal to enact a 1999 pact with Russia, which would unite the two countries under Kremlin rule, has worsened his ties with Vladimir Putin, who in December halted vital energy supplies to Minsk. Belarusians are overwhelmingly in favour of keeping their national sovereignty, and now fear a Ukraine-style Russian invasion.

All this should be fertile ground for Tsepkalo, whose message of economic liberalisation and personal freedom may chime with an electorate hemmed in by fiscal entropy and a bullying, autocratic neighbour. But the success of his pitch is far from evident. A recent poll showed up to 50 per cent of voters favour Victor Babariko, a philanthropist and former banker with close ties to Moscow, who, like Tsepkalo, supports sweeping privatisation and a two-term limit on the presidency. Just ten per cent went for Lukashenko. But even fewer chose Tsepkalo, who "comes across to many as a geek," Grigory Ioffe, a professor of human geography at Radford University, tells me. "His candidacy is not top-notch in terms of popular perception." Tsepkalo has maintained a high presence on the Web and social media. But just two-thirds of Belarusians are online - one of the lowest rates in Europe.

Moreover, says Ioffe, techies do not exactly have popular appeal. "[They are] earning much less money than their colleagues abroad, but much, much more than their fellow countrymen. So they're not that universally loved."

Minsk may be the country's powerhouse, with over a fifth of its citizens and 53 per cent of its wealth. But it is often cut off from the rest of the nation's voters. That might hamper attempts to beat Lukashenko at the ballot box: his popularity in Belarus' towns and forested hinterlands - where many call him "batka", or "daddy" - is still strong. Journalist Iryna Vldanava puts it more simply: "Tsepkalo is a Minsk candidate, not a Belarus candidate."

© Getty Images/Jeff J Mitchell
G-7 meeting in France

Dmitry Peskov said the Russian President "has never come forward with initiatives, appeals or actions" regarding Russia being readmitted.

He further pointed out that Putin believes the larger G20 group of nations is more relevant today and is more in line with contemporary realities. Peskov added that the Kremlin believes the format is pointless without the participation of India, Turkey, China, Brazil and other leading countries.

What Peskov didn't say, but Kremlin insiders admit privately, is that the Russian leadership is also wary of pivoting back to the West because of how this might be perceived in Beijing. Indeed, some in Beijing may even perceive it as a sort of betrayal.

Alexey Pushkov, a veteran Russian senator from Putin's United Russia party tweeted on Monday: "When Maas opposes the return of Russia to the G7, he is talking to Trump, not Moscow. This is an internal discussion of the Western allies. Russia does not seek (a place in) the G7. The G7 loses more from the absence of Russia than Russia does from its non-participation in the G7. Trump understands this. In Berlin, they apparently do not." Pushkov is the former head of the Foreign Affairs Committee in the Russian parliament and his observations usually align with establishment thinking in Moscow.

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According to a report by the Israeli Channel 12 broadcaster, the drone crashed due to a technical failure and was not shot down.

The Israeli military has intensified its monitoring operations along the border with Lebanon following the killing of a member of the Lebanon-based Hezbollah in an airstrike in southern Syria. The IDF said it was responding to "munitions" being fired from Syrian territory controlled by Damascus at Israel.

While Tel Aviv has not commented on the news of the killing the Hezbollah member, the IDF said that it would be securing the border with Lebanon in an apparent attempt to defend against a possible retaliation from the group.

A source in the Lebanese Security Service told Sputnik that there have been clashes on the Lebanese-Israeli border. An armed detachment of Hezbollah fighters that appeared from the direction of the village of al-Ghazir tried to destroy an Israeli military convoy. The detachment was exposed and the IDF eliminated it. A firefight erupted and clashes between Hezbollah and the IDF are still ongoing, according to the source. Explosions can be heard in the area of the Shebaa Farms and the village of al-Ghazir; artillery is firing. Aviation is also involved in the clashes, the source said.

Earlier, the country's Channel 12 reported that an exchange of fire had taken place on Israel's northern border. A military spokesman has confirmed that there was a security incident along the border and the Israeli military ordered residents in the area to remain indoors.

According to an Al Mayadeen report, the Israeli Army has opened fire on Lebanon's Kafershuba. The Israeli military is reportedly moving all troops and equipment to fortified positions on the Lebanese border.

Timeline:

• 17:35 Any Operation Against Israel Will Draw Powerful Response, Defence Minister Gantz Says
• 17:35 Israeli PM Netanyahu Warns Lebanon Not to Play With Fire on Border
• 17:04 UN in Contact With Both Parties Over Israel-Lebanon Clashes, Spokesperson Says"Major General Stefano Del Col, who has been the Force Commander of the UN Interim Force in Lebanon, is in contact with both parties to assess the situation and decrease tension. He urges a maximum restraint at this time", UN spokesperson Farhan Haq said in a press briefing.
• 16:33 Lebanon's Hezbollah Movement Denies Involvement in Israel Border Clash, Reports Say
• 14:20 UN Mission Urges 'Maximum Restraint' After Lebanon-Israel Border Clashes
• 14:17 Israeli Defence Minister Gantz Holds Talks With IDF Chief Kochavi on Developments on Lebanese Border Israeli Defence Minister Benny Gantz is now holding talks with IDF Chief of Staff Aviv Kochavi on the developments on the Lebanese border.
• 14:14 Israel is Bombing Kfarchouba in Southern Lebanon, Source Says A local source told Sputnik that Israel had been bombing the settlement of Kfarchouba in southern Lebanon for around half an hour.
• 14:12 Israeli Army Says It Thwarted 'Infiltration Attempt' by 'Terrorist Cell' The Israeli Army said in a statement that it had thwarted an "infiltration attempt" by a "terrorist cell"