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Erdogan conundrum: Triggers for military coup in Turkey?


Sputnik
Sat, 12 Mar 2016 14:05 UTC
Erdogan and military guy
© english.alarabiya.net
"Let me think...yeah that's sneaky enough to work!"
"No, please, don't let him think!"
The current state of affairs in Turkey is triggering concern. Ankara is facing the dangerous combination of deepening political polarization in the society, a slump in economic growth, and escalating tensions both at home and abroad. Unlike the political and economic turmoil in the 1970s and 1990s, the current crisis is largely a result of the conflict between Turkey's pragmatic domestic and foreign policy and its actual push for leadership, Pavel Shlykov, an associate professor at the Asian and African Studies Institute of the Moscow State University, said in his report.

The current Turkish crisis can be described with several specific features.

First, all spheres of the country's political and social life as well as all its state institutions are engulfed in the crisis.

Second, public incertitude is growing about the future. People realize that the existing model of social and political development is jaded.

Third, the Turkish military is gradually building up its political influence, thus laying grounds for a military coup.

Fourth, recently the Kurdish problem has entered the new stage, and the situation in south-eastern Turkey can be described as a lukewarm civil war between Turkish troops and Kurdish forces.

Furthermore, the conflict in Syria is influencing Ankara's foreign and domestic policy.

Finally, the political prospects of the ruling Justice and Development Party (founded by Recep Tayyip Erdogan) are vague in the current environment.

Comment: Loose cannon Erdogan has created his own foreign policy dilemmas and hasn't the patience to play the diplomatic scene with integrity and finesse. How long will global powers tolerate this distraction, or is it just part of the Western sideshow? He is not fielding support from his military, a big problem, nor is he on the road to better relations with his public. There is a finite usefulness to him that will end, hopefully some time soon. Until then, EU Beware!

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Bad Guys

ISIS is on the verge of losing Aleppo to Syrian army

Alexander Mercouris
The Duran
Fri, 15 Jul 2016 01:21 UTC
aleppo

Aleppo street
Whilst attention is fixed on US Secretary of State Kerry's visit to Moscow and the heavy Russian air strikes near Palmyra, the key battle in Syria is being fought for the city of Aleppo.

The fighting in and around Aleppo is attracting (for the moment) little international attention because it is mainly positional. Since the Syrian army's breakthrough in the area round Aleppo in February - which finally enabled the Syrian military to establish road links to the city - the Syrian army has gradually tightened its control of the countryside around Aleppo. The objective has been to open more land routes to the city, whilst cutting off the rebels' supply lines to Turkey.

This has involved tough attritional warfare, with both sides suffering heavy casualties. However because advances occur incrementally, with the Syrian army also suffering occasional reverses, it does not have the drama of the rapid advances that were being achieved in February and March, and which still occur occasionally further east.
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Red Flag

NATO's ultimatum to Russia: Surrender or suffer a Maidan

Eduard Popov
Fort Russ
Thu, 14 Jul 2016 00:00 UTC
NATO-Russia Council

Russian Foreign minister Lavrov listening to more veiled threats from well coiffed imperial messenger boy (NATO General Secretary) Jens Stoltenberg
Translated by J. Arnoldski

On July 13th, a session of the NATO-Russia Council was held in Brussels. The meeting happened behind closed doors without press access. This can be interpreted in the context of the harsh confrontation between both sides. The tone for such was set at the NATO summit in the Polish capital of Warsaw where Russia was called a threat to global security and even more dangerous than ISIS. The main goal of this event in Brussels was holding this meeting altogether. From NATO's side, this meeting was to appear like a scolding of a guilty schoolboy.

NATO General Secretary Jens Stoltenberg, speaking on the results of the NATO-Russia Council's session, stated that the contradictions between the positions of both sides have not been resolved. The parties began the meeting with a discussion of the situation in Ukraine. According to the NATO general secretary, Russia and the alliance continue to disagree on the issue. The council's participants, however, agreed that settling the conflict in Eastern Ukraine must only be done through diplomatic means. "This will allow Ukraine to develop free of violent intervention from outside," Stoltenberg said. Of course, in NATO's point of view "interference from the outside" is understood as only the intervention of Russia. The delivery of legal weapons to Ukraine by NATO members, such as Poland, and the presence of NATO military instructors at Ukraine's training fields is not considered to be "interference from outside."
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Light Sabers

Kerry's offer to Putin on Syria likely rejected - US expected Russia to agree to removal of Assad

Alexander Mercouris
The Duran
Fri, 15 Jul 2016 00:57 UTC
putin kerry
© TASS
We have still very little information but the indications are that the talks Kerry held with Putin and Lavrov in Moscow have been a failure.

Here is how Putin's spokesman Dmitry Peskov described them:
"Talks were continued, they were rather constructive, rather honest and detailed. However many questions remain connected with real cooperation during the operation in Syria. They discussed different cooperation formats, but the topic of direct cooperation between the military in combating terrorism in Syria was not mentioned, the exchange of information in this area is present, but still, unfortunately, we are not much closer to real cooperation in order to increase the effectiveness of efforts to combatting terrorism in Syria. As for Assad's fate, Russia's well-known position has not undergone any changes."
TASS reports that when pressed to say whether there had been any progress in the talks at all, Peskov somewhat testily replied:
"I said everything I wanted on the issue. The main assessments will be made by [Russian Foreign] Minister [Sergey] Lavrov and [US] Secretary of State [John] Kerry."
As for Kerry, TASS reports him describing the talks as "extremely frank and very serious."

Comment: Here's what Lavrov said after the talks:
"We have reaffirmed the goal — to eliminate threats posed by the Islamic State, Nusra Front and other terrorist groups, stop the flow of support of terrorism from abroad," Lavrov said at a joint news conference with US State Secretary John Kerry following talks in Moscow.
"In contrast with previous meetings when we used to list problems in our relations...this time we have agreed to develop a road map consisting of, may be small, but practical steps aimed at rectifying a rather unhealthy situation in our bilateral cooperation," Lavrov said at a joint press conference with Kerry following talks in Moscow on Friday.
So, they have "reaffirmed the goal" (weak sauce if not actually brought into reality by the Americans), and agreed to a road map (in other words, a vague plan which the Americans won't follow through on). So even though all public indications are that Russia and the US agreed on the rough outline of how to tackle terrorism in Syria, it looks like the US was disingenuously acting like it was interested in cooperation. It's sad, because if they weren't really just trying to oust Assad, the groundwork is there to work together to defeat ISIS

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Light Sabers

Initial thoughts on who and what is behind Turkey's military coup

Alexander Mercouris
The Duran
Fri, 15 Jul 2016 23:56 UTC
turkey coup
© AP Photo/ Emrah Gurel
It is still too early to say definitely that the coup against President Erdogan in Turkey has succeeded. Latest reports speak of armed clashes between the military and Turkish civilians opposing the coup. It is still possible the coup could fail.

However the fact Erdogan has been unable to go on national television and has had to address his followers via an interview with CNN Turk conducted via a mobile phone and FaceTime suggests he is losing control. The fact that he is also calling on his followers to take to the streets to protest the coup - as opposed to calling on them to remain calm - also suggests that he is losing control and that the military are no longer obeying him. NBC news citing a US military source says President Erdogan's plane was refused landing rights at Istanbul airport. If so that also suggests he is losing control.

Regardless of the success or otherwise of the coup, as an EU official has pointed out, this is clearly a well-orchestrated coup carried out by a large section of the military with no evidence that any part of the military is so far opposing it. In fact there are even reports that Turkish military units are being withdrawn from Iraq and are being transferred to Ankara to support the coup.

There is insufficient information to date to say who the coup plotters are and what their intentions are. However it is possible to make some educated guesses:
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Info

Turkey's Armed Forces dismiss allegations of planning for a government coup


PressTV
Thu, 31 Mar 2016 13:56 UTC
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan
© AFP
The Turkish army has dismissed as "baseless" media reports that it was planning a coup against President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

"News and commentaries in some media organs without any foundation naturally influence the morale and motivation of our heroic comrades-in-arms negatively and make all our members uncomfortable," the Turkish Armed Forces said in statement on Thursday.

The military reiterated its commitment to democracy.

"The administrative and legal mechanisms of the Turkish Armed Forces, which take their strength from the deep love and trust of the people and express their adherence to democracy at every opportunity, are employed constantly and effectively," the statement read.

It said a legal action had been initiated over the reports, without specifying which ones.

Comment: Were these rumors correct? The current coup attempt was surely not a spur-of-the-moment decision. More from March:
It was unclear to which media reports the military was referring.

Last week, the US-based "Newsweek" published an article by Michael Rubin, a former Pentagon official in the George W. Bush administration and scholar at the neo-conservative American Enterprise Institute think tank, in which he argued the military could overthrow Erdogan. The article fueled speculation in Turkey.

However, the Turkish daily "Hurriyet" suggested the military's statement was related to allegations that followers of Erdogan's erstwhile ally-turned-foe, the US-based preacher Fetullah Gulen, were planning a coup through officers linked to the Gulen movement.

Since a fall out in 2013 between Erdogan and Gulen over a corruption scandal, the government has accused the Gulen movement of forming a "parallel" state structure by infiltrating the police, judiciary, military and other state institutions.
Did Erdogan sack Davutoglu and turn to Russia in order to get some support in the event of the coup taking place?

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Bad Guys

Tanks crush cars in Istanbul as protesters attempt to block coup forces


RT
Sat, 16 Jul 2016 00:14 UTC
Turkey tanks protest cars
© RamiAILoIah / Twitter
Video footage shows pro-Erdogan protesters in Istanbul attempting to block tanks from taking part in the military coup of the Turkish government. During Friday night's attempted coup by the Turkish military, tanks could be seen crushing cars in an attempt to get away from the site of the demonstration. Some of the protesters could be seen climbing onto tanks in an apparent attempt to stop them, even as they were moving.

In another protest in the city, a soldier could be seen being arrested by a police officer. Police in Turkey are currently fighting against military forces. An unnamed protester captured the attention of social media when he stood alone to block the procession of armored military vehicles, hearkening back to the iconic photographs of the single protester blocking a column of tanks at China's Tienanmen Square protests in 1989.

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Light Sabers

Ankara explodes into chaos: Turkish fighter jet shoots down pro-coup helicopter, tanks open fire on parliament, police exchange fire with soldiers


RT
Fri, 15 Jul 2016 23:41 UTC
Turkish army coup
© DHA via REUTERS TV
Army tanks are pictured driving on a road next to cars during a coup by the Turkish military in Ankara in this video grab taken July 16, 2016.
A Turkish F-16 fighter jet has reportedly shot down a military helicopter used by the pro-coup faction of the Turkish army, local broadcaster NTV reported, as reports suggested the capital of Ankara descended into chaotic clashes involving civilians and military.

A military helicopter was spotted opening fire above Ankara, Reuters reports, citing witnesses. Other reports claim that a loud explosion occurred at the headquarters of state broadcaster TRT. Multiple reports of explosions and shooting are coming out of Ankara, with some stating that at least four explosions were heard.

Tanks are opening fire around the Turkish parliament building, Press TV reports. Turkish-based journalist Diego Cupolo has tweeted that shots were fired near the parliament building in Ankara. Eyewitnesses said a military helicopter opened fire over Ankara, which was followed by sounds of explosion.
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Bad Guys

Turkish soldiers open fire against protesters amid coup


RT
Fri, 15 Jul 2016 23:30 UTC
Turkey coup protesters
© Murad Sezer / Reuters
Supporters of Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan are dispersed with shots in the air by the military at the Taksim Square in Istanbul, Turkey, July 16, 2016
The Turkish military has opened fire and used tanks against crowds of civilians in the city of Istanbul amid protests against the ongoing coup, reports and footage on social media show. Soldiers reportedly fired on protesters trying to cross Istanbul's Bosporus bridge. Several people are said to be wounded, according to media.

Video footage from the scene shows people taking shelter behind a bus as panic ensues. Others are seen carrying the wounded away to safety. A separate video shows a tank crashing into a car seemingly blocking the military's way.

Turkey's special forces commander said that the country's armed forces do not condone the actions of an attempted coup. Turkey's Dogan news agency confirmed reports of soldiers shooting at protesters trying to cross Istanbul's Bosporus bridge, adding that some have been injured. TV footage released by the news agency showed people running to take cover.


Comment: See also: Breaking news: Military coup under way in Turkey - Jets, troops, helicopters surround government buildings

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Light Sabers

Coup in Turkey: Erdogan blames Gulenist network, calls on public to fight in public squares


Sputnik
Fri, 15 Jul 2016 23:13 UTC
erdogan
© AFP 2016/ STR / TURKISH PRESIDENTIAL PRESS OFFICE
Speaking on CNN Turk by phone, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan spoke to the country from a safe space calling on them to fight back against the military coup by taking ground in public spaces and the airport.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan gave a brief statement via CNN Turk calling on the country's people to fight back against what he called a Gulenist network effort to undermine the country's democracy. In the statement, Erdogan urged citizens to wage conflict and take to the streets in protest.

Turkey remains in a state of martial law under the total control of a self-appointed military government that refers to themselves as a "Peace Council" that purportedly will serve as an interim government to reinstall democratic practices and the rule of law in the Middle East country.

Despite losing control of the government, Erdogan remained defiant declaring that those responsible for the attack would face a heavy price and that the coup would be stopped in a "short time."

Comment: See also:
Breaking news: Military coup under way in Turkey - Jets, troops, helicopters surround government buildings

      Read More...
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