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Caesar

Russian diplomacy racks up success after success in the Middle East

Turkey Iran Russia

For five years, Russia has been multiplying its approaches in order to re-establish international Law in the Middle East. It has relied in particular on Iran and Turkey, whose manner of thinking it does not really share. The first results of this patient diplomatic exercise are redefining the lines of division existing at the heart of several conflicts.
New balances of power and a new equilibrium are being set up discreetly in the Nile valley, in the Levant and the Arab peninsula. On the contrary, however, the situation is blocked in the Persian Gulf. This considerable and coordinated change is affecting different conflicts which in appearance have no connection with one another. It is the fruit of patient and discreet Russian diplomacy [1] and, in some cases, the relative good will of the USA.

Unlike the United States, Russia is not seeking to impose its own vision on the world. It begins on the contrary with the culture of its interlocutors, which it modifies by small touches at its contact.

Bad Guys

US banned-missile test was apparently in works long before leaving INF

romania us aegis
© AFP / DANIEL MIHAILESCU
The inauguration ceremony of the US Aegis Ashore site in Romania in May 2016.
It took the US just 17 days after it was no longer officially bound by the INF Treaty to conduct a missile test that would have breached its rules. And it probably was breaching the treaty, given how long preparation takes.

On Sunday, the Pentagon fired a Tomahawk cruise missile from a truck-mounted Mark 41 Vertical Launching System to a distance of over 500km. The test was hardly unexpected. Both the missile and the launcher are time-tested, and their capabilities are publicly known. The only novelty was that the Mk41 was placed on a ground vehicle as opposed to a warship.


If anything, the test was a demonstration of intent and attitude. It would have been legally impossible just a month ago, when the Intermediate Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty still forbade not only deploying but even developing weapon systems like the ground-based Tomahawk.

The INF kicked the bucket this year after years of bickering between the US and Russia over who was the worst at sticking to the spirit of the deal. Washington said the Russians had secretly developed a missile that was in violation. There was even secret intelligence to support the accusations - or at least to convince NATO allies not to question the US' justification for withdrawal.

Comment: So the U.S. develops and plans to test a missile banned under the treaty, leaves the treaty, conducts the test, and meanwhile blames Russia. Sounds legit.
The Kremlin said the U.S. missile test showed that Washington had long been preparing to exit the nuclear pact.

"It is simply not possible to prepare for such tests in a few weeks or a few months. This ...shows that it was not Russia, but the United States with its actions that brought the breakdown of the INF," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said.

China also expressed concern.

In Beijing, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Geng Shuang said the test showed the United States was stoking a new arms race and confrontation, which would have a serious negative impact on regional and global security.

"We advise the U.S. side to abandon outdated notions of Cold War thinking and zero-sum games, and exercise restraint in developing arms," Geng told a daily news briefing.
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov also responded:
The Pentagon's recent cruise missile test is "regretful" as it shows that "the US has clearly embarked on a path of inciting military tensions," Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov said.
...
Ryabkov said that the new test by the US proves that it was actually the Pentagon that has been secretly violating the INF Treaty. "There can't be more striking and obvious proof that the US has been developing such systems for a long time," he told reporters, adding that Moscow will not jump the gun in response.

"We have been assuming this turn of events. We will not allow ourselves to be dragged into an expensive arms race. We don't fall for provocations."

The diplomat reiterated that if Russia ever obtains missiles that were previously banned under the INF Treaty, it will not deploy them unless the US does so first.



Chess

'Color revolution' comes home? Democrats target Trump with regime-change tactics

hong kong protests
© Global Look Press via ZUMA Press / Erik Mcgregor
Congresswoman Ilhan Omar calling on Americans to "take back our democracy" by emulating Hong Kong protests is just the latest episode in Democrats' slide towards "color revolution" tactics to get power they lost at the ballot box.

"Could we take back our democracy if 1.7 million Americans marched for it?" asked Omar (D-Minnesota) on Sunday, retweeting a video allegedly showing that many Hong Kongers on the march.

The protests shaking the Chinese semi-autonomous territory began at the end of March, over a proposed extradition bill, but have continued long after it was withdrawn, with demonstrators carrying US and UK flags while demanding democracy, freedom and human rights. This has led the Chinese authorities and much of the public to believe the protests amount to Western-backed "color revolution."

To Omar, however, the protesting Hong Kongers are just a prop: her actual target is US President Donald Trump. Nor is this the first time a Democrat has called for radical tactics to oust Trump. The self-styled "Resistance" has been at it from the moment he won the 2016 presidential election.

Bullseye

Lavrov responds to Turkey's whining, says they were warned HTS would be crushed in Idlib

idlib
© AFP 2019 / Omar Haj Kadour
The Turkish Defence Ministry said a day earlier that three civilians had been killed and 12 more had been injured in an attack on its convoy moving toward an observatory point in Idlib Province.

Attacks by Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham militants in Idlib will be crushed, Turkey has been notified about that, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said.

"Jointly with our Turkish colleagues, in order to stop regular violations by these terrorists of the cessation of hostilities regime, although it does not extend to them, we have made it clear that if they carry out attacks from this zone, they will be severely suppressed. Throughout this year, these provocations have not stopped", Lavrov said at a press conference, held after his talks with Ghanaian counterpart, Shirley Ayorkor Botchwey.

Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS or the "Organisation for the Liberation of the Levant") is an alliance of militant groups active in Syria. The group, formerly known as Jabhat al-Nusra is a part of this broader alliance.

He added that in all cases, Turkish colleagues were warned that "we would respond, and this practice can't stop, because the agreement on Idlib does not provide for the extension of the ceasefire regime to terrorists".

"The developing situation has emerged due to the fact that extremists do not cease their attempts to hit from there [Idlib's areas controlled by militants and the opposition] targets located in other territories of the Syrian Arab Republic. Our military certainly maintains constant contact. These days, they are discussing the current situation", Lavrov stated.

Comment: The terrorist groups have fled Khan Sheikhun, as well as the towns and villages to the south, which will soon be encircled by the Syrian Army. See also: And the latest map:
khan sheikhun

Flags are areas from which HTS has withdrawn



Arrow Up

Good advice: Iran warns North Korea not to trust US

zarif
Iran has advised its allies in Pyongyang not to trust the US and revealed that the Islamic Republic's Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif has plans to visit Pyongyang.

"The US has proved unreliable for dialogue, both at the exit of the JCPOA [Global Joint Action Plan] and in negotiations with North Korea," said Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Abas Araqchi on Monday, during a meeting with a North Korean parliamentary delegation.

The main US instrument against independent countries such as Iran and North Korea is economic sanctions, the deputy minister said, adding that the restrictions were unable to break the two states' resolve in any way.

In addition, Araqchi also announced that Tehran would be available to develop political ties between the two countries and willing to prepare Zarif's visit to Pyongyang.

This proclamation was made after Tehran completed the creation of the Bavar-373 air defense system. Iranian authorities compare the new system with the Russian S-300, reports the IRNA news agency, with reference to the Iranian Ministry of Defense.

According to the military entity, the new system will be introduced next week.

Comment: This was a huge reason against Trump's decision to pull out of the nuclear deal. It proved to the world that the U.S. is not "agreement-capable", as the Russians put it. It's hard to make deals in the future if everyone knows your word is worthless.


Eagle

Trump's top intelligence and military personnel held unusual meeting at CIA on Iran

John Bolton
© Kevin Lamarque / Reuters
National security adviser John Bolton, outside the White House last week, has long advocated for regime change in Iran.

Comment: Keep in mind that the following article is from last May, but points to just how much the CIA is still a part of influencing foreign policy towards Iran.


In a highly unusual move, national security adviser John Bolton convened a meeting at CIA headquarters last week with the Trump administration's top intelligence, diplomatic and military advisers to discuss Iran, according to six current U.S. officials.

The meeting was held at 7 a.m. on Monday, April 29, and included CIA Director Gina Haspel, Acting Defense Secretary Patrick Shanahan, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Joe Dunford, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, and Director of National Intelligence Dan Coats, five of the officials said.

National security meetings are typically held in the White House Situation Room. The six current officials, as well as multiple former officials, said it is extremely rare for senior White House officials or Cabinet members to attend a meeting at CIA headquarters.

The officials said the discussion was not about the intelligence that led to the decision in the following days to send a carrier strike group and bomber task force to the Middle East, but did not describe what the meeting covered.

Five former CIA operations officers and military officials said that in the past, such meetings have been held at CIA headquarters to brief top officials on highly sensitive covert actions, either the results of existing operations or options for new ones.

Bullseye

Huawei blasts US move to expand blacklist of its affiliates as 'politically motivated'

huawei
© Reuters / Aly Song
Chinese telecom giant Huawei has said the US decision to blacklist another 46 of the firm's affiliates is 'unjust.' The list now includes more than 100 entries.

The US Department of Commerce (DoC) initially blacklisted Huawei itself in May, forbidding US firms from selling technology or equipment to the Chinese tech giant, while also banning US state agencies from buying products and services from Huawei unless granted a waiver. Washington alleges that the Chinese company is involved in activities that pose a threat to US national security and foreign policy interests, suggesting, for example, that Huawei's smartphones could be used by China to spy on Americans, an allegation the firm has repeatedly denied.

The ban, however, was delayed by the DoC for the second time on Monday, allowing Huawei 90 more days to do business with US firms. However, it announced it would add 46 more Huawei subsidiaries and affiliates to its blacklist, which now puts the total number of companies prohibited from trade in the US at 115.

Russian Flag

Kremlin: Putin fully briefed on Arkhangelsk accident, rumors of 'radioactive cloud' absurd

putin
© Sputnik / Mikhail Klimentyev
Five Rosatom employees died in a blast that rocked a military site in the Arkhangelsk Region on 10 August during tests of a liquid-propellant rocket engine. They will receive posthumous government honours.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Tuesday that Russian President Vladimir Putin is fully briefed on all details surrounding the accident in the Arkhangelsk region and dismissed rumours of a "radioactive cloud".

"I suggest you focus on the statements made by the president yesterday, who said that there is no danger and, all the authorities are working to prevent the slightest risk to the citizens of Russia in connection with that emergency," Peskov responded when asked why radiation monitoring stations in Kirov and Dubna stopped submitting reports after the 8 August explosion in the Arkhangelsk region.

Magnify

The purpose of Netanyahu's visit to Ukraine

netayahu zelensky

Ukrainian President Zelensky and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu arrived in Ukraine on an official visit. Most experts claim that the visit is motivated by two points: Israel noted that Ukraine is the only state in the world except Israel itself where the Prime Minister and the President are Jews; Netanyahu has elections on September 17th, and Israel is home to many people from Ukraine.

I think both said reasons for the visit are false. However, the goals named by Netanyahu himself can hardly be considered true either. He, apparently, was going to sign an agreement on a free trade zone, settle humanitarian problems (Banderists started to be denied entry to Israel on a massive basis, and Ukraine periodically sends Jews back, preventing them from entering) and, in addition, Zelensky invited him a couple of months ago.

Comment: See also:


Bad Guys

Political upheaval over Tlaib and Omar's denial of entry to Israel demonstrates the power of BDS

Representative Rashida Tlaib (L) and Representative Ilhan Omar

Representative Rashida Tlaib (L) and Representative Ilhan Omar (R)
We are in the middle of a political upheaval on Israel/Palestine in the United States, and Americans who are concerned with Palestinian human rights live for these moments. They are the moments of potential change: When more tarnish is added to Israel's image, and Americans get a clearer picture of what the Jewish state actually means for non-Jews under its sovereignty.

Since I've been covering the issue there have been several such moments. The Israeli assault on Gaza in 2008-09. The Israeli assault on Gaza in 2014. Netanyahu's showdowns with Obama over settlements, the Iran deal (2011, 2015). The move of the embassy last year with Israel's slaughter of some 60 nonviolent protesters at the Gaza fence.

Most of these moments have involved a lot of bloodshed. Palestine had to have a lot of martyrs for anyone over here to even start paying attention. 2200 Palestinians died five years ago over 500 of them children. Hundreds of brave Gazan protesters have died over the last year (with four NY Times columnists approving their killings).

This latest moment has been absolutely nonviolent. Two congresswomen tried to get into Palestine to meet with human rights groups and Palestinian leaders and see the occupation for themselves. They were barred by Israel because they support the Boycott, Divestment and Sanctions campaign, or BDS.

Comment: And traditionally "pro-Israel" sites like The Hill are seeing this blunder by Israel in quite a similar way:
The decision to deny Reps. Rashida Tlaib (D-Mich.) and Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.) entry into Israel may be one of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu worst strategic mistakes in recent times.

Whatever points he scored with President Trump, whatever damage he believes would be prevented by barring the lawmakers' visit, it pales in comparison to the damage this decision causes to Israel's campaign against its delegitmization. The decision to reverse the ban on Tlaib on "humanitarian grounds" does little to undo the damage, especially since Tlaib rejected the offer. Tlaib cited Israel's "oppressive conditions" of travel as her reasoning, which became the headline of the day. Israel played right into her hands.

Since the early 2000s, Israel has faced a concerted campaign of delegitimization against it, led by the Boycott, Divestment and Sanctions movement (BDS). As part of Israel's response to the BDS, it amended its entry law to allow the government to refuse entry to BDS supporters. This law was invoked to bar Tlaib and Omar's visit. The congresswomen have openly supported BDS and Tlaib announced her intention of leading a delegation to the West Bank to counter the narrative produced by pro-Israel groups such as AIPAC. But even AIPAC criticized the decision to deny Tlaib and Omar's entry.

This was an extraordinary move on the part of the Israeli government, but it is not the first time it has fumbled the response to BDS. Just last summer, it detained liberal Jewish-American journalist Peter Beinart when he attempted to enter the country on a personal visit. Soon after, it refused entry to American student Lara Alqasem, despite her receiving a visa to study in Israel, on the claim that she had been a leader in her university's chapter of Students For Justice in Palestine (SJP).

The Alqasem case received wide coverage in Western media. Even conservative supporters of Israel, questioned the decision. What was not reported as widely was that in her 16 days of detainment, Alqasem was afforded access to three levels of the judicial system, all the way to the Israeli Supreme Court, which reversed the order and granted her entry. Alqasem is now a student at Jerusalem University. That part of the narrative was lost in the kerfuffle of Israel's overreaction.

Delegitimization is and should be treated as a threat to Israel. It presents a serious challenge to Israel's ability to maintain its Jewish character, which is increasingly viewed as incompatible with the modern values of the international society. Though the BDS movement has had little success in hurting Israel's economy or diplomatic relations with political elites, it has made considerable strides at the grassroots level, with civil society, on campuses, labor unions and churches.

As a 2016 Pew Research survey indicates, American millennials, including Jews, are far less sympathetic towards Israel than their older counterparts. In certain progressive, and some liberal spaces, Israel is becoming a pariah state.

If Israel hopes to successfully defeat the delegitimization campaign, it must avoid at all cost illiberal, largely ceremonial actions that serve little to enhance its security. Barring American students and lawmakers, even those most critical of Israel, represents a short-sighted and misguided approach to addressing the challenge. In many ways, Israel is contributing to the very threat it seeks to thwart.

Instead, Israel should have opened its doors to them. Demonstrating that it has nothing to hide. Perhaps Tlaib and Omar would have refused to meet with Israelis while on their trip, perhaps they would have met with Israeli groups that are strong critics of the government — and this would have highlighted Israel's openness to criticism. Perhaps they would have also met with Israeli and Palestinian victims of political violence. We will never know.

All that is left is the image of Israel as an oppressive state, one that does Trump's bidding, thereby alienating the very liberal audiences that Israel must win over if it hopes to defeat the delegitimziation campaign against it. With this decision, Netanyahu has done more to undermine Israeli security than the visit by Tlaib and Omar could have.

Ronnie Olesker is an associate professor of government at St. Lawrence University. Her upcoming article, "Delegitmization as a National Security Threat: Israel and BDS" will be featured in the fall issue of Israel Studies Review Journal.
But, alas, Israel does have a lot to hide.