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Morgan Stanley forecasts global recession in under a year if Trump escalates trade war with China

Tucker Higgins
CNBC
Sun, 02 Jun 2019 18:55 UTC
US china trade war recession
Investors are overlooking the threat posed by the U.S.-China trade war, which could send the global economy into recession in less than a year, according to a research note published Sunday by Morgan Stanley.

"Investors are generally of the view that the trade dispute could drag on for longer, but they appear to be overlooking its potential impact on the global macro outlook," wrote Chetan Ahya, the investment bank's chief economist.

President Donald Trump last month raised the tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods from 10% to 25%. U.S. officials have also threatened to impose tariffs on $300 billion in remaining Chinese imports.

Ahya noted that the outcome of the trade war at the moment "is highly uncertain" but warned that if the U.S. follows through with 25% tariffs on the additional Chinese imports, "We could end up in a recession in three quarters."

"Is such a prognosis alarmist? We think otherwise," Ahya wrote.

Comment: US-China trade war could cost global economy $600 billion
The heightened tensions may result in tariffs on all bilateral imports instead of groups of products. Given the possibility of tariffs increasing to 25 percent, output in the world may decline by 0.5 percent, while US and Chinese output may drop 0.5 percent and 0.8 percent, according to the analysts. Financial markets, already sensitive to the US-China trade war, are expected to be dragged down as a nightmare scenario includes a 10 percent equity market crash, that would eventually hit consumption and investment, in addition to increased tariffs. This would lead to 0.6 percent decline in global GDP, while China and the US would lose 0.9 percent and 0.7 percent respectively.
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Chess

Mexico's President Obrador urges dialogue with US to resolve trade and migration issues amid looming tariff threat


RT
Mon, 03 Jun 2019 19:01 UTC
Mexico President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador
© Henry Romero/Reuters
Mexico's President Lopez Obrador reiterated Monday that the US and Mexico can reach a deal and avert threatened US tariffs on Mexican goods.
Mexico's President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador has been sending an optimistic vibe about upcoming talks in Washington to resolve issues related to immigration, just days after a rhetorical brawl with the US president.

Obrador, speaking at his daily press conference Monday morning, said a trade and migration deal was in the interests of both the US and Mexico, adding that he would like to maintain a friendship with US President Donald Trump.

A war of words kicked off last Thursday between the two heads of state when President Trump threatened to impose a five percent tariff on Mexico if it didn't move to change its border policies, later calling the country an "abuser" of the US. Obrador pushed back in a sharply worded letter, much in contrast to Monday's more genial remarks.

Comment: Trump announces progressive tariff - up to 25% - on ALL Mexican imports 'until illegal migration solved'

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Attention

Swedish court rejects detention in absentia for Assange, won't request extradition from Britain


The Local Sweden
Mon, 03 Jun 2019 15:57 UTC
Swedish court rejects detention Assange
© Fredrik Sandberg/TT
Journalists outside the courtroom on Monday.
A Swedish court has decided not to detain Julian Assange in absentia, which means the prosecutor will not immediately request his extradition from Britain.

In a detention hearing earlier on Monday, Swedish deputy director of public prosecutions Eva-Marie Persson told Uppsala District Court that the WikiLeaks founder had not cooperated with the Swedish investigation previously, fleeing from an extradition order, and therefore needed to be detained and questioned in Sweden.

Detention in a person's absence is a standard part of Swedish legal procedure if a suspect is outside the country or cannot be located, and which would be the first step to having him extradited from Britain.

But Assange's Swedish lawyer, Per E Samuelson, meanwhile argued that a detention order was "meaningless" as Assange is currently imprisoned in Britain and should not be considered a flight risk. He said it was not proportionate to ask for someone's detention merely to conduct a questioning session.

Assange remains a suspect, but the court agreed with the defence that it would not be proportionate to formally detain him, because the prosecutor would be able to continue the investigation regardless.

Comment: See also:

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Bad Guys

US greenlights missiles for terrorists occupying Syria's Idlib

Ben Norton
The Gray Zone
Mon, 03 Jun 2019 20:05 UTC
idlib
While the US corporate media continues propagating the conspiracy theory that Donald Trump is a secret Kremlin asset, the Trump administration has approved heavy weapons for al-Qaeda-allied, Turkey-backed militants to fight against a Russian-backed offensive in Syria.

The Syrian army has relaunched a campaign to retake the northwestern province of Idlib, which has been under the control of Syria's al-Qaeda affiliate for more than four years. Washington has responded by greenlighting a cache of US-made anti-tank missiles, rocket launchers, and armored vehicles sent from NATO ally Ankara to sectarian Islamist militants in Idlib.

Syria's ally Russia had negotiated a peace deal with Turkey in September 2018. Ankara is militarily occupying part of northern Idlib, and the NATO member has constructed a dozen military bases in the Syrian province. But after seven months, Turkey and its rebel proxies have still failed to uphold their side of this peace agreement.

Comment: See also:

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Control Panel

Why Half The Western World is Disinformed And How Global News Agencies And Establishment Media Report on Geopolitics

Swiss Propaganda Research
True Publica
Tue, 14 May 2019 00:00 UTC
propaganda
By Swiss Propaganda Research: It is one of the most important aspects of our media system, and yet hardly known to the public: most of the international news coverage in Western media is provided by only three global news agencies based in New York, London and Paris.

The key role played by these agencies means Western media often report on the same topics, even using the same wording. In addition, governments, military and intelligence services use these global news agencies as multipliers to spread their messages around the world.

A study of the Syria war coverage by nine leading European newspapers clearly illustrates these issues: 78% of all articles were based in whole or in part on agency reports, yet 0% on investigative research. Moreover, 82% of all opinion pieces and interviews were in favour of the US and NATO intervention, while propaganda was attributed exclusively to the opposite side.

"Something strange"

"How does the newspaper know what it knows?" The answer to this question is likely to surprise some newspaper readers: "The main source of information is stories from news agencies. The almost anonymously operating news agencies are in a way the key to world events. So what are the names of these agencies, how do they work and who finances them? To judge how well one is informed about events in East and West, one should know the answers to these questions." (Höhne 1977, p. 11)

A Swiss media researcher points out: "The news agencies are the most important suppliers of material to mass media. No daily media outlet can manage without them. () So the news agencies influence our image of the world; above all, we get to know what they have selected." (Blum 1995, p. 9)
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Quenelle

Moscow rebukes Trump's Idlib tweet, says it will strike terrorists who attack civilians


RT
Mon, 03 Jun 2019 15:05 UTC
Su-30
© Sputnik / Maxin Blinov
Russian aircraft Su-30 lands at the Khmeimim airbase in Syria
Russia will continue to strike back at terrorists in Syria's Idlib who attack civilians and Russian troops, the Kremlin's spokesperson said in response to US President Donald Trump's call to stop operations there.

There is a "high concentration of terrorists and militants" in the Idlib province, which carry out attacks against unarmed people and Russian military personnel, Dmitry Peskov told reporters on Monday.

He was responding to Donald Trump who earlier accused Russian and Syrian forces of "indiscriminately killing many innocent civilians" and called on them to stop operations in the area.

Comment: Unsurprisingly, Trump was silent when Israel was bombing Syria the other week: Israeli air raids on Syria kill 3 soldiers, injure 7

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Heart - Black

The 5th anniversary of the bombing of Lugansk


The Saker
Sun, 02 Jun 2019 12:00 UTC
Lugansk

The bombing of Lugansk
The Ukrainian authorities and media ignored the 5th anniversary of the tragic events in Lugansk, when a UAF warplane carried out an air strike on the building of the Lugansk regional state administration for the purpose of liquidating the leadership of the LPR, as a result of which passers-by suffered.

"A Ukrainian Sukhoi, having made several circles over the center of Lugansk, homed in on a position and somewhere over that place where now there is a monument bearing the inscription 02.06.14 on Oboronnaya Street launched a series of missiles at the central square. It cut a clearing in the thickets of the park and launched a missile at the administration building. Eight people remained lying in pools of blood on the sidewalk and on the threshold of the administration... Why was it necessary to carry out an air strike on the center of a peaceful city? Who had enough cynicism to give the order to launch missiles at a square where children, mothers, and elderly people were walking around? Who didn't hesitate to squeeze the trigger and fire munitions at live unarmed targets? I have answers to these questions, but they are missing from the decisions of the courts and tribunals," stated the adviser to the head of the LPR Rodion Miroshnik.

Comment: See also:

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Black Cat

UN Torture Report confirms 'demonized' Assange has faced 'psychological torture'

Joe Lauria
Consortium News
Fri, 31 May 2019 20:51 UTC
Nils Melzer
© Denis Balibouse / Reuters
Nils Melzer in Geneva, Switzerland, May 31, 2019.
The UN special rapporteur on torture has blasted four nations for imposing psychological torture on Julian Assange: 'a relentless and unrestrained campaign of public mobbing, intimidation and defamation'; warns of 'criminalization of journalism'

The UN special rapporteur on torture has issued a stinging rebuke to the United States, Great Britain, Sweden and Ecuador for "deliberately" exposing WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange to years of "cruel, inhuman or degrading treatment or punishment," which can only be described as "psychological torture."

"In 20 years of work with victims of war, violence and political persecution I have never seen a group of democratic States ganging up to deliberately isolate, demonise and abuse a single individual for such a long time and with so little regard for human dignity and the rule of law," Nils Melzer said in a statement published on the UN High Commissioner for Human Right's website on Friday. "The collective persecution of Julian Assange must end here and now!"

Comment: Melzer further commented that Sweden's probe made it impossible for Assange to 'defend himself'
The Swedish authorities made it impossible for WikiLeaks co-founder Julian Assange to cooperate with the rape investigation without the risk of being extradited to Washington, UN Special Rapporteur on Torture Nils Melzer told RT.

There were discrepancies in the probe against Assange in Sweden such as the investigation being dropped in 2010 and re-opened almost immediately, Melzer told RT's Afshin Rattansi on his show, Going Underground.
This case was closed by the prosecutor saying that there was no evidence that any crime has been committed at all ... Then a few days later, a different prosecutor takes up this case again and issues an arrest warrant [on Assange].
Two women accused Julian Assange of rape, which he denies. The investigation was dropped for the second time in 2017 - only to be launched once again last month after the journalist was forcibly evicted from the Ecuadorian embassy in London.

Melzer believes Sweden pursued the probe "in a way that didn't allow Julian Assange to defend himself" without risking being extradited to the US where he may face up to 175 years in prison over charges of violating the Espionage Act.

Watch the full interview here:

RT and Democracy Now! have been the only two major media outlets to broadcast interviews with Melzer. Both the BBC and Sky News taped segments with the UN official, but failed to broadcast them.

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Snakes in Suits

Trump tests US-UK 'special relationship,' upsetting British figures before state visit


RT
Mon, 03 Jun 2019 14:06 UTC
Trump
US President Donald Trump has managed to anger a number of high profile British figures, from "stone cold loser" Sadiq Khan and Jeremy Corbyn to "nasty" Meghan Markle - all before touching down in London to meet the Queen.

As Trump embarks on his three-day UK state visit, the US president has been busy ruffling feathers with a series of derogatory and antagonistic remarks in interviews and customary tweets about his British 'allies'.

Quelle surprise some may say, but has the president been given extra carte blanche to cause mayhem on British soil, with political leadership rudderless, as Theresa May enters her final days as UK prime minister?

Lays into London Mayor Sadiq Khan

Minutes before landing at London's Stansted airport on Monday morning, Trump found time to deliver some unsavory words for London's Mayor Sadiq Khan, who has been less than glowing about the president - taking a pop at his height.
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TV

CBS News lies - says US senator warned about Moscow's 'aggression' in Arctic when he actually said no such thing


RT
Sun, 02 Jun 2019 21:33 UTC
Russian border mark
© Reuters / Sergei Karpukhin
A Russian border mark is pictured at the Nagurskoye military base on the Franz Josef Land, Russia, on March 29, 2017
US Senator Joe Manchin warns of Russian aggression in the Arctic and discusses reports of secret nuclear tests there, a description to a CBS interview states. Scared?

Well, that's not exactly what he said, but 'Russian aggression' is too good of a trope to pass.

In fact, the Democratic senator from West Virginia did not even use the word 'aggression' throughout the entire interview, not even once. That, however, did not stop CBS from putting it in the caption to the Face the Nation video both on the channel's website and YouTube account.

Instead, what the senator did say was that Russia has invested large sums of money and tremendous efforts in its Arctic regions as they make up a significant part of the country. "It is an unbelievable commitment that they have made."

Comment: Someone in the CBS news room has gotten their orders to characterize everything Russia does in the Arctic (and everywhere else for that matter!) as "aggression". The same powerful interests are also, likely, determining what US foreign policy is and making sure that those at the highest level of US government are following suit:

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