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The Saker reviews Andrei Martyanov's newest book: The (real) Revolution in Military Affairs

The Saker
The Unz Review
Thu, 05 Dec 2019 21:56 UTC
book military history martyanov
Last year I reviewed Andrei Martyanov's book Losing Military Supremacy: the Myopia of American Strategic Planning for the Unz Review. In that book, Martyanov explained why the era of easy US victories over pretty much defenseless countries was over and what that meant for US force planners. This year it is my immense pleasure to review his latest book The (real) Revolution in Military Affairs. Let me immediately say that you do not have to read the first book to greatly enjoy the second one, but I still do think that the best "combo" to get a full picture would be to read both books in the order they were published. Still, today I will review only the second book.

First, debunking the many US political science canards

Martyanov begins his book by debunking the so-called "Thucydides Trap" which Foreign Policy summarized as so:
: "When one great power threatens to displace another, war is almost always the result — but it doesn't have to be"
(with a clear emphasis on the first part of the subtitle). Martyanov correctly calls this (typically "political science geeks") cliché as very dangerous and misleading. He then proceeds to debunk a who's who list of US political science cliches, including the latest one, the so-called "hybrid warfare". He speaks of "unnecessary and pseudo-scholastic confusion" and he adds that the current "Western think-tankdom" is "utterly unprepared" for the realities of modern warfare. As somebody who worked (during my college years) for several US think tanks in Washington DC, I can only agree. I also know for a fact that most think tanks will write anything, no matter how false, just to secure more funding (I even had colleague who worked in "respectable" think tanks laugh about the nonsense they were writing just to get more funding).
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Light Sabers

Hungary to block Ukraine's NATO membership over law banning language


Reuters
Thu, 05 Dec 2019 21:47 UTC
Zelenskiy
© REUTERS/Gleb Garanich
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg attend a joint news conference following their talks in Kiev, Ukraine October 31, 2019.
Hungary's foreign minister on Wednesday said Budapest would block Ukraine's membership in NATO until Kiev restored the rights that ethnic Hungarians had before a language law curbed minorities' access to education in their mother tongues.

Hungary has clashed with Ukraine over what it says are curbs on the rights of roughly 150,000 ethnic Hungarians to use their native tongue, especially in education, after Ukraine passed a law in 2017 restricting the use of minority languages.

"We ask for no extra rights to Hungarians in Transcarpathia, only those rights they had before," Szijjarto told state news agency MTI at the NATO summit in London.

Comment: See also:

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Arrow Up

Zarif to EU states: 'Exert sovereignty' instead of bowing to US bullying on JCPOA


Sputnik
Thu, 05 Dec 2019 14:51 UTC
JZarif
© AP/Petr David Josek
Iranian FM Javad Zarif
On Tuesday, Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi reiterated that Tehran is not seeking to abandon the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, known as the 2015 Iranian nuclear deal.

Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif has urged European signatories to the Iran nuclear deal to "exert sovereignty rather than bow to US bullying."

In a tweet on Thursday, Zarif referred to the signatories' recent letter to the UN Secretary General which he argued indicates "a desperate falsehood to cover up their miserable incompetence in fulfilling bare minimum of their own JCPOA obligations."

The remarks come after the European signatories to the 2015 Iran nuclear deal accused Tehran of possessing "nuclear-capable ballistic missiles," which they claimed are "inconsistent" with a UN resolution endorsing the agreement.

In a letter to UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres on Wednesday, UN ambassadors from France, the UK and Germany referred to UN Security Council (UNSC) Resolution 2231 which actually "calls on" but does not require Iran "not to undertake any activity related to ballistic missiles designed to be capable of delivering nuclear weapons, including launches using such ballistic missile technology".

The French government has, meanwhile, claimed that Iran's ballistic activities are out of sync with the Islamic Republic's obligations under UN Security Council resolution that endorses the Iran deal, also known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).
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Rocket

Putin: Russia is prepared to extend New START arms treaty w/o conditions or further discussion


RT
Thu, 05 Dec 2019 16:03 UTC
PutinMissile
© unknown
Russian President Vladimir Putin
Moscow is ready to extend the last major nuclear arms control treaty, without conditions or discussions, President Vladimir Putin said as he reiterated Russia's position on the New START treaty which expires in 2021. The Russian president pointed out:
"Russia is ready to immediately, as soon as possible, before the end of the year, extend the New START treaty without any preconditions, so that there would be no double, triple interpretation of our position later. I'm saying this officially."
The New START treaty, which obliges Moscow and Washington to reduce the number of its strategic nuclear missile launchers by half, was signed in April 2010. The agreement expires in February 2021, but there's an option for it to be extended until 2026.

Russia has already filed all the paperwork needed to begin talks on extending the treaty, but the US has not reacted to the proposal. Moscow is concerned that the Trump administration is willing to ditch New START, just like it did with the INF deal.

Comment: See also:

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Briefcase

Devin Nunes sues CNN for 'demonstrably false' Ukraine report

Byron York
Washington Examiner
Tue, 03 Dec 2019 03:29 UTC
Rep. Devin Nunes
© Independent
House Intelligence Committee Ranking Member Devin Nunes
Rep. Devin Nunes, the ranking Republican on the House Intelligence Committee, has filed a $435 million defamation suit against CNN over a story that alleged Nunes met with a fired Ukrainian prosecutor in an effort to dig up dirt on Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden.

The story — "Giuliani associate willing to tell Congress Nunes met with ex-Ukrainian official to get dirt on Biden" — was published Nov. 22. It was based on the words of Joseph Bondy, the attorney for Ukrainian-born Lev Parnas, who worked closely with Trump lawyer Rudy Giuliani in pursuing allegations of Ukrainian efforts to influence the 2016 presidential election as well as allegations of corruption in Ukraine involving Biden's son Hunter. Parnas is currently under indictment on campaign finance charges.

CNN reported that Bondy said Parnas was "willing to tell Congress" that in December 2018, Nunes traveled to Vienna to meet with Viktor Shokin, the top Ukrainian prosecutor who was famously fired in 2016 under pressure from the United States, represented by Biden, who said Shokin did not do enough to prosecute corruption in Ukraine. CNN cited congressional travel records showing Nunes and a few aides traveled to Europe between Nov. 30 and Dec. 3, 2018. Quoting Bondy, the CNN report said, "Mr. Parnas learned from former Ukrainian Prosecutor General Victor Shokin that Nunes had met with Shokin in Vienna last December."

Shortly after the report was published, Nunes said it was "demonstrably false" but declined to elaborate. In the lawsuit, Nunes has provided the details.
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Pirates

Macron: Check priorities! 'Terrorism' is the new enemy of NATO; Russia downgrades to a mere 'threat'


RT
Wed, 04 Dec 2019 22:16 UTC
Macron
© EPA-EFE/Philippe Wojazer
French President Emmanuel Macron
French President Emmanuel Macron has called on NATO to set its priorities straight, arguing that international terrorism is the main enemy of the alliance, while Russia is somehow both a 'threat' and a 'partner.'

"Who is the enemy of NATO? Russia is no longer an enemy. It remains a threat but is also a partner in certain areas. Our enemy today: international terrorism, especially Islamist terrorism," the French president tweeted after the NATO 70th anniversary summit, which concluded in London on Wednesday.

The message summed up the vision of NATO's strategic goals that Macron had shared at a press conference after the summit. In his speech, the French leader managed to combine the persistent NATO's desire to paint Russia as an eternal "threat" and "menace" for the alliance with his own repeated calls for a "constructive" dialogue with Moscow.

"Russia is also geographically a neighbor and it is a reality once again, and it is also a partner. It is a power with which we work on certain subjects, on which we advance," he said.

Comment: RT, 4/12/2019: Stoltenberg: Dialogue with Russia OK, Russian reporter - nyet
NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg confirmed in a press conference that the Western military bloc is "in favor of dialogue" with Russia — yet, this apparent openness still didn't extend to taking any questions from Russian reporters.

During the Wednesday press gathering, an AFP reporter asked Stoltenberg how he felt about French President Emmanuel Macron's call for cooperation with Russia. Stoltenberg said he agreed with the statement from Paris and that the NATO bloc as a whole was in favor of keeping the lines of communication with Moscow open.

Stoltenberg added that dialogue was necessary because Russia is NATO's "closest" and "biggest" neighbor and it's important to "strive for a better relationship." He then went on to take questions from journalists representing Sky News, the BBC, the Washington Post and North Macedonia's Telma TV, among others.

Yet, when the opportunity arose for the NATO secretary general to take a question from a Russian journalist, time was up — and the decision was final. What happened to those lines of communication?

Having sat patiently through the press conference and not been called upon, one Russian reporter piped up as the event concluded to ask if Stoltenberg would permit "one question from Russia, please!"

Stoltenberg lingered at the podium for a couple of seconds, looking toward an aide who quickly jumped in to save him: "We said this was the last question, so I'm afraid time is pressing. Thank you," she said before swiftly ushering him off stage.



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Propaganda

Media linking NHS leak to Russia is absurd, but using the Atlantic Council & Ben Nimmo as the source is journalistic malpractice

Danielle Ryan
RT
Wed, 04 Dec 2019 07:57 UTC
Corbyn
© Getty Images/PA Images/Dominic Lipinski
Labour Party Leader Jeremy Corbyn
The new effort to cast doubt over leaked NHS documents as a potential 'Russian influence' plot is nothing more than a pre-election smear campaign against the Labour Party, concocted by con artists and amplified by the Tory press.

We have reached a point in time when no Western political scandal would be complete without a nefarious Russian angle. So naturally, when Jeremy Corbyn claimed last week that a 451-page leaked dossier proved Boris Johnson was willing to put the public health service "up for sale" during trade talks with the Trump administration, it was only a matter of time before someone shouted 'Russia!' But who would be willing to bravely step up to the plate and point the finger at Moscow?

Comment: See also:

Corbyn rejects as 'nonsense' claim that Russia is behind controversial UK-US NHS fire-sale dossier leak - includes video with Corbyn's remarks

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Star of David

Israel: President Rivlin considering pardoning Netanyahu, strings attached


Sputnik
Thu, 05 Dec 2019 02:49 UTC
Neti/Rivlin
© AFP/Abir Sultan
Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu • Israeli President Reuven Rivlin
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is charged in three high-profile criminal cases related to bribery, fraud, corruption and misuse of power. Netanyahu denies wrongdoing and has threatened to stay in power even if sentenced after having been found guilty.

Israeli President Reuven Rivlin was reported on Wednesday to be mulling a pardon for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, under conditions that the latter retire from politics and admit to every charge against him, according to The Jerusalem Post, citing Israel's Channel 12. Netanyahu reportedly has not yet responded yet to the president's recommendation, which has been suggested numerous times by several mediators and has every time been rejected by the PM.

A former lawyer for Netanyahu, who died in October 2018, reportedly tried in the past to convince his boss to accept the bargain, but his attempts failed every time.

Israel's Attorney General Avichai Mandelblit is also reported to be ready to support President Rivlin's suggestion of a pardon for Netanyahu in exchange for full culpability and retirement. Neither Rivlin nor Mandelblit have publicly confirmed the offer.

The Jerusalem Post's report noted that pressure on Netanyahu to accept the deal may hinge on a guarantee to avoid a third election this year.
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Magnify

Barr disputes major Horowitz finding based on Durham, CIA evidence

Tyler Durden
ZeroHedge
Thu, 05 Dec 2019 20:16 UTC
William Barr
© Nicholas Kamm/AFP/Getty Images
Attorney General William Barr will dispute a fundamental finding in the upcoming Inspector General report - namely that the FBI was justified in launching an operation Crossfire Hurricane, the agency's official covert counterintelligence investigation into links between the Trump campaign and Russian officials, according to the Washington Post.

While IG Michael Horowitz is said to have concluded that the agency had enough information to launch the probe on July 31, 2016 after Trump campaign aide George Papadopoulos repeated a rumor that Russia had dirt on Hillary Clinton, Barr has reportedly told associates that Horowitz does not know about - or did not include - potentially exculpatory evidence held by other US agencies such as the CIA, which could alter his report's conclusion.
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Stop

Putin: 'Bulgaria is deliberately holding up TurkStream gas pipeline extension to Serbia'


RT
Thu, 05 Dec 2019 09:39 UTC
TurkStream
© Gazprom
The TurkStream gas pipeline
Russian President Vladimir Putin has accused Bulgaria of delaying the construction of its section of the TurkStream gas pipeline. He said that Russia could, however, find ways to bypass the country, if necessary.

Despite Sofia repeatedly asking Moscow to implement the gas project "at any cost" after abandoning the South Stream route, Bulgaria is slowing down the construction of the new pipeline under external pressure, according to Putin. At a joint news conference with Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic in Sochi on Wednesday, the Russian president said:
"Well, let's wait and see how this project is carried out in the future on Bulgarian territory. If the Bulgarians do not want it, I mean the Bulgarian leaders rather than the Bulgarian people, we will find other ways of delivering on our potential in the south of Europe."
Turkstream map

Comment: The last time someone leaned on Bulgaria to cancel/delay a Russian gas pipeline, John McCain was instrumental in it.

Bulgaria later BEGGED Putin to reconsider her for the project that came AFTER 'SouthStream', i.e. the current project, 'TurkStream', which is just a clever way of rebranding/rerouting Russian gas into southeastern Europe.

Well, now Bulgaria is again allowing itself to be America's plaything. Which is par for the course when you're a paid-up wage-slave of the NATO Club.

See also:

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