Game Theory analysis confirms what we have been saying all along: In Ukraine, Russia holds all the strong cards.

The Western aim of a unitary Ukraine inside the EU and NATO and allied against Russia cannot happen.

Leonid Bershidsky elegantly summarises a paper that applies game theory to the Ukrainian conflict. Briefly, the paper says that Russia can destabilise Ukraine indefinitely, creating a "frozen conflict" there, and that the West cannot prevent it from doing so.
The West can in theory respond by: (1) military escalation; (2) sanctions; and (3) returning to business as usual with Russia.

The authors of the paper, and Bershidsky himself, appear to think the most likely outcome in the short term is (2) (sanctions), but with a measure of (3) (returning to business as usual), and with (3) prevailing over the long term. Option (1) (military escalation) is not ultimately viable.

We agree.

Bershidsky — rightly, in our opinion — sums up Kerry's visit to Moscow in that way: "Kerry has come to Russia so the sides can agree to disagree on Ukraine and move on to other issues such as Syria and Iran, where constructive interaction is still possible."

Latest reports say that Kerry has warned Poroshenko against any attempt to recover Donetsk airport, which appears to bear that out. It seems that some at least in the U.S. are now at last looking for ways to isolate the Ukrainian conflict from the rest of the U.S. Russia relationship, so that the U.S. can move forward in its relations with Russia on other questions.

This warning from Kerry is incidentally the first time the U.S. has publicly warned Ukraine against a military solution.

Reports that suggest European leaders are now also pressing Kiev to fulfill the political part of the February Minsk Memorandum by entering into substantive constitutional negotiations and by granting wide autonomy to Donbass (previously discussed by us in First Sign of Germany Putting Pressure on Kiev to Implement Peace Deal, Russia Insider, 27th April 2015, and by me on Radio Sputnik, 12th May 2015) point in the same direction.

It should be said clearly however that this is in no sense a "draw", as Bershidsky appears to suggest.

The Israeli authorities have issued a new raft of demolition orders to Palestinians living in occupied East Jerusalem.

On Sunday, an Israeli court approved the demolition of eight Palestinian homes in the East Jerusalem neighborhood of Semiramis. The court said the owners must destroy the homes themselves and pay fines of 49,000 shekels ($12,667) by 1 August, Ma'an News Agency reports.

The demolition orders in Semiramis were delivered just days after Israel announced that it will build 900 new homes in Ramat Shlomo, a Jewish-only colony in East Jerusalem,according to the anti-settlement group Peace Now.

In March, ahead of elections for Israel's parliament, the Knesset, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu promised to expand settlements in the occupied city.

"We will continue to build in Jerusalem, we will add thousands of housing units, and in the face of all the [international] pressure, we will persist and continue to develop our eternal capital," Netanyahu said.

Rima Awwad, a member of the Jerusalemites Campaign, a group that campaigns for Palestinian rights in the city, said Netanyahu "campaigned on a platform of de-Palestinianization of the occupied city and he is now following through on his promise."

Can a new surveillance law help stop terrorists the government is already tracking and simply choosing not to stop?

France has announced that in the wake of the so-called "Charlie Hebdo Shooting," it will be passing a controversial new bill granting security agencies unprecedented powers to tap the communications of France's population without judicial overview.

Impossible to pass without having first provoked fear, hatred, division, and hysteria across the French population, and still facing stiff resistance from civil liberty activists, the bill's passage raises further suspicions regarding the fatal January 2015 shooting in regards to who organized the incident and who stood most to benefit.

A suspected terrorist is arrested every day in Britain. More than 700 British born extremists have traveled to Syria to join the Islamic State; half of them, according to Scotland Yard, are already back on British soil.

The Metropolitan Police Assistant Commissioner for specialist crime and operations, Mark Rowley, said: "ISIL and other terrorist groups are trying to direct attacks in the UK, encouraging British citizens to travel to Syria to fight and train, and are seeking, through propaganda, to provoke individuals in the UK to carry out violent attacks here.

"They are not aid workers or visiting relatives, they are people of real concern that are getting involved in fighting or are supportive of it. They are potential terrorist suspects."

Attempts to prove the presence of Russian soldiers in Ukraine are reaching surreal levels.

The Russian liberal opposition has released a report to that effect, which it seems was largely prepared by the murdered Russian liberal politician Boris Nemtsov before his death.

Reuters has also published a dispatch under the incendiary title Special Report - Russian soldiers quit over Ukraine, to essentially the same effect.

We learned recently from Paris that the Western world is deeply and passionately committed to free expression and ready to march and fight against attempts to suppress it. That's a really good thing, since there are all sorts of severe suppression efforts underway in the West — perpetrated not by The Terrorists but by the Western politicians claiming to fight them.

One of the most alarming examples comes, not at all surprisingly, from the U.K. government, which is currently agitating for new counterterrorism powers, "including plans for extremism disruption orders designed to restrict those trying to radicalize young people." Here are the powers which the British Freedom Fighters and Democracy Protectors are seeking:

They would include a ban on broadcasting and a requirement to submit to the police in advance any proposed publication on the web and social media or in print. The bill will also contain plans for banning orders for extremist organisations which seek to undermine democracy or use hate speech in public places, but it will fall short of banning on the grounds of provoking hatred.

It will also contain new powers to close premises including mosques where extremists seek to influence others. The powers of the Charity Commission to root out charities that misappropriate funds towards extremism and terrorism will also be strengthened.

While the war in Ukraine has raged on for more than a year, the growing conflict between the US-NATO and Russia has taken on new dimensions. From economic warfare waged by the West in the form of sanctions, to the diplomatic rows over the commemoration of Victory Day in Moscow, more and more it seems that relations between East and West are fraying beyond repair. Though it may seem that this conflict is escalating into simply an extension of what was once known as the Cold War, the potential exists for a hot war of global dimensions.

Lost amid the cacophony of saber-rattling and chest-thumping in Washington and Brussels is the quietly emerging, and infinitely dangerous, military deployment in the Black Sea. Once seen as a no-go zone for the US and NATO, the Black Sea, with its expansive Russian shores, has recently become the site of a slew of provocative military moves by the US, and equally significant counter-moves by Russia. Adding fuel to this potential fire is the participation of Chinese naval assets in this quietly brewing cocktail of global conflict.

The presence of US military assets all throughout the Black Sea region is undoubtedly provocative as it is pushing perilously close to Russia's borders. The potential for escalation - premeditated or otherwise - puts the entire region, and indeed the entire world, at risk of catastrophe.

Nestlé's chief executive officer said he would not consider moving his company's bottling operations out of California - which continues to struggle through a historic drought.

The corporate official said Nestlé would not follow Starbucks and stop drawing water from wells in the state - where personal use has been limited - and move elsewhere, reported KPCC-FM.

"Absolutely not," said CEO Tim Brown. "In fact, if I could increase it, I would."

Brown said the company's water bottling operations serve a growing consumer demand - and he's not willing to give up Nestlé's market share.

"If I stop bottling water tomorrow, people would buy another brand of bottled water," he said. "As the second largest bottler in the state, we're filling a role many others aren't filling. It's driven by consumer demand — it's driven by an on-the-go society that needs to hydrate. Frankly, we're very happy [consumers] are doing it in a healthier way."


Jay Famiglietti, a hydrologist at NASA's Jet Propulsion Lab, said the California water crisis is at least partly the result of a human behavior problem that could threaten water supplies in other areas.

China has made a request of the International Monetary Fund (IMF): It wants the IMF to recommend the Chinese renminbi as a reserve currency. Being a reserve-currency economy would give China easier and cheaper access to capital (something an indebted China is likely to cheer). But there are also drawbacks. Reserve currencies tend to be in high demand, pushing up the value of their currency relative to where it would otherwise trade. This makes exports less competitive and imports more competitive. China is unlikely to welcome such an outcome. Whether or not the IMF says "yes"—and to what extent—has the potential to shift the global economy toward a duopoly with two dominant reserve currencies—the U.S. dollar and the Chinese renminbi.

It's about time the American people threw Arizona Republican Senator John McCain "physically" out the back door of Washington. And may the screen door not hit him in the rear, on his way out! A political rant, past overdue...

News today US Senator John McCain is worming out of being an adviser to Ukraine President Petro Poroshenko is absolutely the worst PR double dribble anybody in the business ever heard of. The head of the US Senate Armed Services Committee, McCain has been the screaming eagle flying overhead in Washington demanding guns for Kiev since the country erupted in civil war after Euromaidan. If his part in Ukraine's current situation were for a job resume, the Arizona senator would join America's unemployed tomorrow morning. Here's a look at a public relations abortion in progress.