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Only Michelle Obama can beat Donald Trump - poll

Michelle Obama
© Getty Images / NAACPMichelle Obama
Many Democrats believe US President Joe Biden should drop out of the race after his poor debate performance.

Michelle Obama, the wife of former US President Barack Obama, is the only potential Democratic candidate who could beat Republican frontrunner Donald Trump in November's election, according to a new Reuters/Ipsos opinion poll.

There is growing concern among Democratic voters over President Joe Biden's ability to secure a second term in office this year, particularly after his debate with Trump, in which the 81-year-old incumbent appeared frail and confused, and struggled to finish his sentences.

On July 1 and July 2, Ipsos market research company surveyed a representative sample of 1,070 US adults for Reuters, including 892 registered voters, 348 Democrats, 322 Republicans, and 303 independents.

According to the poll, if a vote were to be held now, Biden and Trump would both win an estimated 40% of the votes. However, around three in five voters, including nearly one-third of Democrats, believe Biden should drop out of the race altogether and that his party should put forward a new candidate, even at this late stage.

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Bullseye

UN experts call for Pakistan's Imran Khan to be released from 'arbitrary detention', expose fraud at recent election

imran khan
© Rizwan Tabassum/AFPSupporters of Pakistan's jailed former Prime Minister Imran Khan celebrate after he was acquitted of leaking state secrets, following a court verdict in Karachi, on 3 June 2024. Khan was acquitted from a state secrets conviction, but remains in jail on charges of having an unlawful marriage.
A group of United Nations experts said in a statement on Monday that former Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan's detention is both arbitrary and in contravention of international law, with the group calling for his release.

The UN Working Group on Arbitrary Detention said in its statement that the "appropriate remedy would be to release Mr Khan immediately and accord him an enforceable right to compensation and other reparations, in accordance with international law".

"Mr Khan's detention was arbitrary [sic] because it resulted from his exercise of fundamental rights and freedoms, including the right to freedom of opinion and expression, the right to political participation and the right to freedom of association," the group said.

Comment: It's about time. What took them so long? Jeffrey D. Sachs: The US toppling of Imran Khan

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Star of David

Israel set to re-invade Khan Younis, IDF issues new evacuation orders

Khan Younis Gaza IDF
© ReutersThe IDF has already wrecked Khan Younis, yet intends to return for another "offensive".
The Israeli army issued a new order for Palestinians to evacuate from the eastern portion of the southern Gaza Strip city of Khan Younis on Tuesday, suggesting a new offensive against the enclave is being prepared, after fresh rocket attacks from militants.

The military is reportedly focused on destroying a major rocket factory in the city which is overseen by Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ). The IDF is urgently warning residents in specified districts they must move into the Western part of the city, as well as to al-Mawasi camp on the coast, designated a "humanitarian zone". Regional reports say at least 250,000 are directly impacted by the initial evacuation order.

The IDF had pulled out of Khan Younis in April, declaring military operations there complete, thus this would mark a re-invasion of the city akin to the limited operations still happening in the north upon the return of armed fighters to these areas. Monday saw some 20 rockets fired at IDF positions from Khan Younis, a first in many months.

Newspaper

Iran's election runoff: Two candidates, two worldviews, and record voter apathy

Masoud Pezeshkian  Saeed Jalili
© The CradleThe hastily arranged Iranian presidential election to succeed Ebrahim Raisi saw a record low turnout, forcing a 5 July runoff between reformist Masoud Pezeshkian and conservative Saeed Jalili and highlighting deep voter dissatisfaction.
Forty days after the passing of Iran's President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash, the Islamic Republic held snap elections on Friday, 28 June, to vote for a new head of the administrative branch. With no single candidate receiving a mandatory 51 percent of votes cast, however, the two leading candidates will now advance to a runoff poll on 5 July.

Conservative candidate Saeed Jalili and reformist-leaning Masoud Pezeshkian lead political factions that are not merely rivals but fierce adversaries, epitomizing the deep political divide within the country.

Voter apathy reaches historic high

According to Iran's Interior Ministry, 61,452,321 Iranians inside and outside the country were eligible to vote. However, only 24,535,185 cast their ballots, resulting in a turnout of approximately 40 percent. This figure is slightly lower than the 40.6 percent turnout in the March 2024 parliamentary vote and marks the lowest participation rate in the Islamic Republic's history.

Cardboard Box

Ukraine 'weeks away' from sovereign debt default - Newsweek

Ukrainian Finance Minister Serhiy Marchenko
© Sean Gallup/Getty ImagesUkrainian Finance Minister Serhiy Marchenko at the 2024 Ukraine Recovery Conference on June 11, 2024 in Berlin, Germany. Marchenko has said a deal with Ukraine's creditors over debt should be reached by an August 1
Ukraine has fewer than four weeks to strike a deal with its creditors or risk a default that could seriously harm the economic recovery of the war-ravaged country.

Two years ago, Ukraine's private foreign bondholders had agreed to suspend debt wartime repayments — a let-off worth around 15 percent of the country's annual GDP. However, that agreement expires on August 1.

Defaulting on the estimated $20 billion of outstanding private bonds could jeopardize future funding and divert focus from fighting against Russia.


Comment: Lest we forget Ukraine has received well over $200 billion to sustain the proxy war against Russia already.


One expert told Newsweek that a default by Ukraine in the coming weeks would be "unlikely" but in the longer term could be "inevitable."

Comment: For the moment West can print more funny money and concoct accounting tricks to give the impression Ukraine's zombie economy is alive, however as Russia completes the goals of its SMO, and with investment opportunities opening up with groups like the BRICS alliance, few real investors would dare risk being involved with Ukraine, or its funders.

That said, with all the developments on the world stage, from Europe's populist parties gaining traction, Israel's threatening a Middle East conflagration, as well as Russia's SMO making significant strides, perhaps the West only needs to postpone the inevitable fora short period before more significant issues take precedence: Orban urges Russia-Ukraine ceasefire during surprise visit to Kiev, as Hungary assumes EU-presidency


Arrow Down

Biden may drop out of presidential race - NYT

bidem
© Andrew Harnik/Getty ImagesUS President Joe Biden
The White House has told the outlet that the claim is "absolutely false".

US President Joe Biden is seriously considering whether he can recover from his "disastrous" debate performance, the New York Times reported on Wednesday, citing a "key ally" who wished to remain anonymous.

Biden struggled through last week's exchange with challenger Donald Trump, hosted by CNN. The Times described his performance as "devastating," even though Biden's campaign had arranged the circumstances to be maximally favorable.

"He knows if he has two more events like that, we're in a different place" by the end of the Independence Day weekend, the unnamed ally told the newspaper.

While the unnamed source insisted that Biden is "still deeply in the fight for re-election," the 81-year-old is reportedly aware that the next several days must go well if he wishes to "salvage" his candidacy.

Biden is scheduled to record an interview with ABC's George Stephanopoulos - a Clinton White House veteran - on Friday and take part in campaign events in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. A meeting with Democratic governors is also on the schedule for Wednesday evening.

Comment: "They" will tell him what to do. It's already decided. Count on it.


Explosion

Age of rage: Critics unleash threats and abuse on the Court following the presidential immunity decision

USSCourt
© unknownUS Supreme Court Justices
Below is my column in the New York Post on the Supreme Court's historic presidential immunity decision. I am not someone who has favored expansive presidential powers. As a Madisonian scholar, I favor Congress in most disputes with presidents. Yet, the reaction to the Court's decision has been baffling from academics who did not raise a whimper of opposition when President Barack Obama killed an American citizen without a trial or a charge. When former Attorney General Eric Holder announced the "kill list" policy (that included the right to kill any American citizen), he was met with applause, not condemnation. Moreover, even the government conceded before the Supreme Court that official acts did deserve protection from prosecution. The issue was only where to draw that line. The Court found that there was absolute immunity for actions that fall within their "exclusive sphere of constitutional authority" while they enjoy presumptive immunity for other official acts. They do not enjoy immunity for unofficial, or private, actions.

I felt that there were good-faith arguments on both sides of this issue. The reaction, however, of politicians and pundits is to again denounce and even threaten the justices. Rage has again replaced reason as commentators misrepresent the opinion and race to the bottom in reckless rhetoric. It is not clear what these paper-bag pundits are more upset about:
The fact that the Court ruled in favor of immunity or that the Court again failed to yield to years of harassment and threats from the left. What they fail to understand is that this is precisely the moment that the Court was designed for.
Here is the column:

Target

Bolivia: The coup did not fail, it is still being prepared

Zuniga
© ReutersBolivian General Juan Jose Zuniga is presented following his arrest for a coup attempt in La Paz, Bolivia.
What happened on June 26th in Bolivia was not yet a coup d'état. It was a failed putsch given by the commander of the Armed Forces, Juan José Zuñiga, in an improvised manner, believing that it would be supported by the other coup officers.

But Zuñiga got ahead of himself.

He had declared, two days earlier, in an interview, that he would not accept a new candidacy from Evo Morales for president of the Republic. As the statement caused enormous controversy, President Luis Arce announced that Zuñiga would be dismissed. So, the military anticipated, organized a group from the Challapata Special Regiment "Mendez Arcos" and tried to invade the Government Palace.

But no one else accompanied him. No barracks were raised, anywhere in the country. However, contrary to what one might think, the police did not play a leading role in containing the putsch. Although she also did not join Zuñiga's adventure, she is even more reactionary than the army and was at the forefront of the 2019 coup.

Evo and Arce himself called on the people to mobilize against the coup attempt. Hundreds of people expelled Zuñiga's military from Murillo Square, demonstrating combativeness as they had done in thousands in 2019. But it was less popular mobilization and more the lack of initiative from the military that led to the failure of the Zuñiga putsch.

Question

France: What are Marine Le Pen's plans for new government?

Marine Le Pen
© Reuters/Yves HermanMarine Le Pen speaks to journalists after partial results announced in the first round of the French parliamentary elections June 29, 2024
National Rally party is predicted to win the largest number of seats in France's National Assembly

After Marine Le Pen's National Rally walloped Emmanuel Macron in the first round of voting in the French elections, there is a real chance France could be governed by a hard-Right party for the first time since the Second World War.

Then, France's collaborationist Vichy regime claimed authority over the country in an armistice deal with Nazi Germany.

Ms Le Pen has spent more than a decade trying to detoxify her National Rally party and turning it from a movement that once celebrated Nazi collaboration to a genuine electoral force.

On Sunday evening, the National Rally was seen winning around 34 per cent of the vote, according to early exit polls from Ipsos, Ifop, OpinionWay and Elabe.

Although the final result will depend on days of horse-trading before next week's run-off, it's evident her message is resonating with voters.

Quenelle - Golden

Le Pen accuses Macron of preparing 'coup d'etat'

Le Pen
The French president has been using his powers to make last-minute appointments, according to the former leader of the National Rally party

French President Emmanuel Macron is undertaking a last-minute reshuffling in government agencies in order to prevent National Rally leader Jordan Bardella from governing as he wishes, former party leader Marine Le Pen believes. The RN is widely expected to gain a plurality in this Sunday's runoff.

RN and its allies secured the lead in the first round of the snap parliamentary election last week, while projections in the French media anticipate the party ultimately winning between 230 and 280 seats in the 577-seat National Assembly.

"It's a kind of administrative coup d'état," Le Pen told France Inter radio on Tuesday, commenting on press reports that claimed Macron was rushing to appoint senior civil servants, including to top EU jobs.

Over the past days, Macron reportedly appointed several top officials, including the military governor of Paris, the new chief of the General Staff of the French Air Force, the new director of the EU at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and three ambassadors. He also proposed in Brussels last week reappointing Thierry Breton as France's European commissioner.

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