While more at home on the golf course than in the Persian Gulf, Donald Trump had initially presented the war against Iran as a "little excursion." Not known for his strategic patience, he wanted results fast. The original objectives were the fall of the Islamic regime and the complete destruction of its military capabilities. Now, four weeks since hostilities began, none of that has come to pass.
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The Iranians have taken control of the Strait of Hormuz, and their coastline — stretching 1,600 kilometers — is bristling with missiles, drones, and military speedboats. The Houthis of Yemen are threatening to close in turn the Strait of Bab-el-Mandeb, which locks access to the Red Sea. In Lebanon, where one million people have been displaced (one in ten inhabitants), the Israelis make no secret of their intention to militarily occupy the south of the country up to the Litani River. The price of crude oil has surpassed 100 dollars a barrel, a rise from which Vladimir Putin is the principal beneficiary. European countries, which the European Commission forced to cut themselves off from Russian hydrocarbons, are now facing gas and oil shortages that are driving a surge in petrol prices at the pump.
Though severely and lastingly weakened by the massive bombardments they have endured,
the Iranians have not yielded — quite the contrary. What we have witnessed is an escalation that looks very much like a headlong rush. The American-Israeli military movements, the contradictory statements from the White House, the continued Iranian strikes, the destabilization of energy markets, the announcement of a ground invasion (special forces?) — all of this sketches out a scenario whose consequences no one can foresee, but which evokes the "oil shocks" of 1974 and 1979: economic and financial crisis, global recession.
The United States, which had hoped for a lightning victory, no longer knows how to extract itself from this hornet's nest. The Iranians, who were supposed to collapse within days, are holding the initiative in every domain.
The balance sheet of Operation "Epic Fury" is a disaster.
Comment: Israel is now focused on securing all the territory south of Lebanon's Latini river, which water it covets.
Psychopaths.
They aren't even trying to hide it: