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The Kremlin 'tower' of hardliners (party of war) could be strengthened by the extent to which the first phase of the war from the initial invasion up to mobilization and the new, apparent 'full war' strategy is seen as a failure and the result of influence of the 'party of compromise' on Putin. Winners will be Nikolai Patrushev, his sons, the 'private' military company Wagner's Yevgenii Prigozhin, among others. At this point it is difficult to discern evidence of the war party's strengthening, since Patrushev and his sons as well as Prigozhin were on the rise around Putin before February 2022, with Patrushev becoming the Kremlin's chief ideologist and Prigozhin an increasingly powerful Russian actor abroad and at home. With Russia's full turn away from the West and the war necessitating a harsher line at home and abroad, the consolidation of hardliners' power is complete and the influence of Patrushev and Prigozhin each is growing.Writing about the present moment as of May 2022, I proposed that there was no imminent or even mid-term threat of a regime split and revolt or revolution against the regime of Russian President Vladimir Putin but if a threat was to emerge in future it would come from the nationalist, ultra-patriotic wing not from Russian liberals or society at-large. That is, there will be no pro-republican liberal uprising against the war or the regime, but a revolt, coup, or even a revolution from above waged by state-nationalist (not ethno-nationalist) hardliners would be eminently possible - not necessarily probable or inevitable - in the longer term, if Russia is perceived as having lost or to be losing an already long, costly war. I wrote:
The possibility of a move by hardliners against the Putin's balance of power between hardline siloviki and regime liberal economic and financial officials or even against Putin himself is the most likely of the three possible, though still highly unlikely scenarios.Recent events involving Wagner chief Prigozhin cause me to reaffirm the views above.

Comment: Travesty 2.0: The Next Generation (if there is one)