India v Pakistan: What you need to know about Kashmir flare-up that may push nuclear rivals to war

Tension is escalating rapidly between nuclear-armed neighbors India and Pakistan after air combat between the rivals ended with the reported loss of aircraft by both nations.

The ongoing flare-up started on February 14 with the suicide bombing of Indian police troops in Kashmir, a divided region in the north that has been contested by Islamabad and New Delhi since 1947.

Some 40 people were reportedly killed in the attack. The militant group Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM), that wants all of Kashmir to become part of Pakistan, claimed credit for the attack, which was the deadliest in decades.

Indian air raid

Early on Tuesday morning, the Indian military aircraft crossed into Pakistani airspace for a raid against what India called a JeM training camp. Indian Foreign Secretary Vijay Gokhale said "a very large number" of JeM fighters were killed in the raid, which targeted an area near the town of Balakot in the Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa province of Pakistan.

"The existence of such training facilities, capable of training hundreds of jihadis, could not have functioned without the knowledge of the Pakistani authorities," Gokhale said. Indian media claimed as many as 300 militants had been killed.

The town is located some 50km (32 miles) from the UN-mandated Line of Control (LoC) in Kashmir, which serves as the de facto border in the disputed region. India hasn't launched incursions that deep into Pakistani territory since the war of 1971, the bloodiest conflict fought by the two nations.

Pakistan pledges retaliation

Pakistan, which denies harboring jihadists, rejected India's justification for the attack, which was that Islamabad refused to deal with JeM insurgency on its own.

Pakistani military denied Indian claims of mass casualties on the ground, saying Indian jets dropped their munitions in a desolated area while being chased away by Pakistani warplanes. Neither side's version of events could be corroborated independently.

Islamabad condemned the incursion into its airspace and said it reserved the right to retaliate against India at a time and place of its choosing.

On Tuesday evening, there were reports by Indian officials of heavy artillery shelling coming from the Pakistani side injuring several Indian troops in Kashmir.

Islamabad strikes back

The promised retaliation materialized on Wednesday and has brought with it as much confusion over what exactly happened as events on Tuesday. Pakistan stated that its aircraft attacked targets across the LoC, but stayed in Pakistani airspace.

Pakistan has "taken strikes at non military target, avoiding human loss and collateral damage," the country's Foreign Ministry said in a statement. "Sole purpose being to demonstrate our right, will and capability for self defense."

Then, according to the Pakistani side, the Indian Air Force launched its aircraft into Pakistan's airspace. In the ensuing fight, two Indian aircraft were shot down, and two pilots captured.

India says both nations lost aircraft on Wednesday

The Indian government took a pause before commenting on the developments on Wednesday. An Indian official based in Kashmir told Reuters that at least three Pakistani aircraft violated the border and were confronted by Indian fighter jets deployed to intercept them.

There were also claims in the Indian media that a Pakistani F-16 fighter jet was shot down and crashed in the Rajouri district of Kashmir - presumably by the Indian Air Force responding to an incursion.

Hours later, the Indian Foreign Ministry confirmed that the air force lost one of its MiG-21s during an engagement with Pakistani forces. Its pilot is listed as missing in action, Raveesh Kumar, the spokesman for the ministry, said.

He added that one Pakistani fighter jet was shot down by the Indian side, falling on the Pakistani side of the border. He stressed that the Pakistani aircraft were targeting Indian military installations on the ground.

At least one other Indian aircraft crashed on Wednesday in Budgam, a district in the India-controlled part of Kashmir. However it was not a fighter jet but rather a Mi-17 helicopter, which reportedly went down due to a malfunction while returning to base. The Pakistani military said it did not engage that aircraft. The helicopter was earlier misidentified as a MiG-21 fighter jet in some media reports.

Security concerns

Amid the flare-up, air traffic was shut down on both sides of the LoC. Airports in the cities of Amritsar, Pathankot, Jammu, Leh and Chandigarh have been shut down and all flights canceled on the Indian side. Pakistan closed its entire airspace to flights amid the tension.

The move is a clear indicator that both countries fear further escalation of hostilities after two days of exchanges of fire. Both governments publicly stated they want to defuse the tensions though.

Several nations, including the US, China and Russia, as well as the European Union issued calls for restraint addressed to Islamabad and New Delhi.

Domestic posturing or true escalation? Analyst fears new Kashmir incident prelude to global conflict

© REUTERS/Danish Ismai
Indian soldiers stand next to the wreckage of Indian Air Force's helicopter after it crashed in Budgam district in Kashmir February 27, 2019.

India's raid into Pakistan was a calculated provocation, and if New Delhi isn't just playing to its home electorate, major world powers will be dragged into a war, a political analyst tells RT.

"What would they expect to happen? They are quite aware of Pakistan's right to defend its territory. What is India hoping to gain?" Darius Shahtahmasebi, a New Zealand-based political analyst, says.

"Either India is making a statement, posturing for its domestic population that it is doing something about Kashmir. Or they are actually trying to escalate the issue further, because they know that eventually Pakistan will respond"

While Islamabad preached "restraint" on Wednesday, if it does strike back, India could unleash a full-scale war. And Shahtahmasebi believes that even if the two countries decide to leave their nuclear arsenals off the table and engage in conventional localized warfare, the impact will be global.

He notes that Pakistan is the nexus of Saudi geopolitical ambitions in the area, and India is a rising superpower, able to rely on support from Western allies. For China, the region is the main artery for its ambitious One Belt-One Road project.

"It's not a minor conflict the rest of the world can close its eyes to. It would bring in China, it would bring in Saudi Arabia, it would bring in the United States, though as a former or current ally of both adversaries, it is now unclear quite where it stands during the Trump administration," Shahtahmasebi told RT.

'Mess with the best, die like the rest': Pakistan & Indian celebs split on Twitter as tensions rise

© Wikimedia Commons
(L) Fahad Mustafa; (R) Mahira Khan

As tensions escalate between India and Pakistan, celebrities in both countries have hit Twitter to show support for their armies, although many famous faces are also calling urgently for peace.

Pakistani actress Mahira Khan said there was "nothing uglier," and "nothing more ignorant" than cheering for war. Meanwhile, Mawra Hocane tweeted a Christopher Holliday quote saying there can be "NO winners in war," and called on the media to "stop being provocative."

Fahad Mustafa, a Pakistani actor, echoed their push for peace, saying "war does not determine who is right...only who is left."

Not everyone was calling for peace, however. Pakistani actor Hamza Ali Abbasi tweeted: "Well done India. Much improvement from the fake 'Surgical Strike' claim," before calling on Pakistan's forces to retaliate.

Indian actor and director Ajay Devgn showed his support for the Indian army, with a strongly-worded tweet, saying: "Mess with the best, die like the rest. Salute #IndianAirForce."

Responding to a tweet by MP Rahul Gandhi saluting pilots of the Indian Air Force, actor and former chairman of the Film and Television Institute of India Anupam Kher said: "Today will be a good day to start saluting Prime Minister Narendra Modi too."

Celebrities like actor Mohanlal Viswanathan and ordinary Indians alike are tweeting a play on a popular phrase from a recent Bollywood movie, Uri: The Surgical Strike, "How's the josh?" Instead of 'josh' they are asking, "How's the Jaish?" referring to India's strikes on Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM). They then answer their own question with the quip: "Dead sir."

Nuclear Armageddon v new-found equilibrium: How far can current Indo-Pakistani confrontation go?

There remains the risk that the tensions between two bitter rivals will result in the worst-case scenario, Sultan Mehmood Hali, a retired group commander of the Pakistan Air Force, told RT.

"If pushed against the wall... Pakistan will be forced to retaliate with nuclear weapons, which could, of course, lead to very serious destruction in the region," he said.

"Unfortunately, once you have this kind of weapons on both sides and if there is a desperate situation, then a desperate situation will lead to desperate measures."

"We don't want this to escalate to mutually assured destruction," Hali said, while admitting that his nation would be at a disadvantage in an all-out fight.

"India is the superior power. Its armed forces are three times the size of Pakistan's. Its economy is much broader. It can sustain a lot of hits," the Air Force veteran said.

"Pakistan, being the weaker country, will be on the receiving end."

Agreeing with the last point, the former foreign secretary of India, Kanwal Sibal, noted that Pakistan is in "no position to have an all-out war unless it wants self-destruction." The Muslim-majority country is in the midst of "a terrible financial crisis," seeking assistance from the World Bank, the ex-diplomat said.

He added that the US and Pakistan's longtime ally in the region, China, called on the parties to maintain restraint, but the nation "disregarded that." Speaking to RT, Harsh V. Pant, professor of international relations at King's College London, noted that the politicians in New Delhi and Islamabad are not "so suicidal" to push a conflict "to a nuclear level."

"I don't think it is in the interest of both sides to take it beyond a certain point, given that both are nuclear-weapon states. After the initial bout of instability... we will find equilibrium."

Professor Pant said that India "was cognizant of the risks" when conducting Tuesday's air raid over its neighbor's territory. Pakistani-based jihadist group Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) has stepped up attacks across the border in recent years, including a convoy bombing two week ago, which killed 44 Indian police officers.

"The feeling in India after being struck every single year and month with terrorism is 'enough is enough,'" he said.

"India has now put the ball squarely in Pakistan's court."

The government in New Delhi justified the airstrikes on Pakistan's territory by claiming that Islamabad doesn't do anything to combat terrorists.

Addressing India's concern, Sultan Mehmood Hali said New Delhi should share "actionable intelligence" on the terrorist groups with Pakistan. "Our prime minister [Imran Khan] has assured: we will take definite action," he told RT.

'No Indian movie will be released': Pakistan bans Bollywood films & ads after air raid

Pakistani Information and Broadcasting Minister Fawad Chaudhry has ordered an embargo on all Indian-made films and advertisements, following India's air strike in its territory on Tuesday.

Chaudhry announced the boycott on Twitter.

The ban is the latest setback in the always-fragile cultural relations between the two neighbors.

India to 'isolate' Pakistan after suicide car bomb attack on police convoy kills 44

"We believe art and films are universal languages that transcend borders and bring people closer. We hope we can all play a positive role in reducing tensions, and supporting policies that bring peace and prosperity to the people of the entire region," said All Pakistan Exhibitors Association Chairman Zoraiz Lashari in a statement.

© REUTERS / Younis Khaliq
Indian soldiers examine the debris after an explosion in Lethpora in south Kashmir's Pulwama district February 14, 2019.

© REUTERS / Younis Khaliq

US President Donald Trump's former lawyer Michael Cohen, giving testimony on Capitol Hill, has not been able to provide any evidence of collusion between the Trump campaign and Russian officials during the 2016 election.

Cohen has been giving testimony described as "explosive" by mainstream media to the House Oversight Committee about his "suspicions" that Trump could have worked with Russia during the campaign - but when probed, was not able to provide any evidence to back up those suggestions.

CBS reporter Bo Erickson tweeted during the hearing that Cohen "cannot cite any real examples of Russian collusion" with the Trump campaign "even though he was one of [Trump's] closest allies."

"If [Cohen] doesn't know about any collusion, who does?" Erickson tweeted.

Republicans on the committee have castigated Democrats for inviting a "convicted perjurer," who they say cannot be trusted, to give testimony. Cohen pleaded guilty last November to making false statements to Congress about a potential deal to build a Trump Tower hotel in Moscow, later admitting that he lied to "protect" Trump.

During the hearing, Rep. Jim Jordan accused Cohen of being aggrieved with Trump because he didn't get a job at the White House - a claim which Cohen denied.

While Republicans immediately took an adversarial tone with Cohen, Democrats on the committee have been pushing him to produce information implicating Trump in a conspiracy to steal the election with help from Russia.

Committee Chairman Elijah Cummings said Democrats will continue to call Trump's associates before Congress to testify in their "search for the truth" for the foreseeable future, taking advantage of the fact that the party now holds majority powers in the House of Representatives.

Tweeting before the hearing, Trump himself accused Cohen of "lying in order to reduce his prison time."

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