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Stephen Cohen: Abolition of nuclear abolitionism?

Trump/Commanders
© Global Look Press/Shealah Craighead
US President Donald Trump with senior military commanders, October 23, 2018.
President Trump's withdrawal from the INF Treaty nullifies a historic precedent.

Stephen Cohen elaborates on the following points regarding Trump's decision to withdraw from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, signed by the US and (Soviet) Russia in 1987.

- For whatever reasons, both leaders at the time, President Ronald Reagan and Soviet General Secretary Mikhail Gorbachev, had developed a deep personal fear of nuclear weapons. After agreeing in principle, though informally, in February 1986 that all nuclear weapons should be eliminated, the following year they abolished an entire category of those instruments of mass destruction: nuclear-warhead-bearing missiles with a range of some 500-5,500 kilometers.

- The INF Treaty was focused on Europe, which was targeted by Soviet missiles and which was where US counter-missiles were based. It was a major step in a diplomatic process of grand détente that both Reagan and Gorbachev thought would end the Cold War and nuclear arms races forever. The treaty's larger significance is that it was the first, and still only, act of nuclear abolitionism - until now, a historic 31-year tangible symbol of what more could, and should, be possible.

Comment: Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu gives a warning:
From RFE/RL:
Shoigu told his visiting Greek counterpart on October 29 that the European Union and NATO should weigh the consequences of a U.S. exit from the 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty...

"It seems to us that not everybody in Europe understands that this decision will have serious consequences for Europe either, and to put it more accurately, for Europe in the first place," Shoigu said.

Shoigu's statement follows a warning from Russian President Vladimir Putin last week that Russia would target any NATO member countries if the United States withdraws from the treaty and puts currently banned intermediate-range missiles in those countries -- something NATO has said is not currently being contemplated.

In the days since Trump announced his intent to abandon the pact, Russia has called for a return to dialogue over the treaty to address complaints on both sides.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on October 28 that Moscow is drafting answers to a list of questions the United States has drawn up about Russian compliance with the treaty.



Briefcase

The originalist: A case against birthright citizenship

Gavel/WeThePeeps
© Moussa81/Getty Images
The American people are being told by the political class that there is nothing they can do to prevent future waves of illegal immigrants from coming here, unilaterally declaring political and legal jurisdiction, and securing citizenship for their children. We are told that there is no recourse through our elected representatives to prevent illegal immigrants from gaining a legal foothold in this country, all because of a footnote from the most radical anti-originalist justice of this century, William Brennan Jr.

If you are scratching your head wondering how our own Constitution can be used as a suicide pact against us by foreign countries, you are not missing anything. This irrational sentiment expressed by a number of conservative and liberal pundits alike, in fact, undermines the very fabric of the social contract, popular sovereignty, and the republican form of government established by the preamble of the Declaration of Independence and the Constitution.

Comment: Is the US true to its founding principles or modifying those standards to appease some of the people some of the time? Can't have it both ways. Protection was guaranteed. Now, not so much.


Footprints

Pentagon readies 7K troops for border duty; Trump warns 'gang members' in caravan

Stonethrowers
© Reuters/Carlos Garcia Rawlins
US-bound migrants throw stones after pulling down a gate at the Mexico/Guatemala border.
Continuing a stream of similar warnings, US President Donald Trump has again warned a thousands-strong 'caravan' of migrants, en route to the US, to "turn around," as the Pentagon identifies 7,000 troops to send to the border.
"The Caravans are made up of some very tough fighters and people," the president tweeted on Wednesday. "Fought back hard and viciously against Mexico at Northern Border before breaking through. Mexican soldiers hurt, were unable, or unwilling to stop Caravan. Should stop them before they reach our Border, but won't!"

With a caravan of around 4,500 migrants already well into Mexico, "breaking though," was likely a reference to a second migrant caravan forcing its way through Mexico's southern border with Guatemala on Saturday, battering down the gates and throwing rocks at police.

Comment: This upcoming encounter, with all its potential variables, is akin to threading a humanitarian, legal and political needle. There will be only one chance to do it right.
See also:


Jet3

US urges Saudi-led coalition to cease airstrikes in 'populated areas' of Yemen

PomMat
© cnn.com
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo • Defense Secretary James Mattis
The US Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo, has urged the Saudi-led coalition to stop airstrikes in heavily populated Yemen, shortly after Defense Secretary Jim Mattis said a that long-lasting ceasefire is the only possible solution.

"Time is now for the cessation of hostilities, including missile and UAV strikes from Houthi-controlled areas into the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Subsequently, Coalition air strikes must cease in all populated areas," Pompeo said in a statement.

"It is time to end this conflict, replace conflict with compromise, and allow the Yemeni people to heal through peace and reconstruction," declared the top diplomat of the country that supplies the coalition with the bulk of its weapons, as well as intelligence and reconnaissance assistance.

Just hours earlier - while noting that American aircraft continue to provide aerial refueling and intelligence to Saudi jets attacking Yemeni targets - the Pentagon chief also demanded that the warring parties work towards a long-lasting peace.

"We want to see everybody around a peace table based on ceasefire, based on a pullback from the border, and then based on ceasing dropping bombs," Mattis said at the Institute of Peace (USIP).

Comment: The time to end this conflict was years ago.

And from Sputnik:
A strike by the Arab coalition fighting Houthis in Yemen killed 150 rebels near the port city of Hodeidah, a spokesman for the Saudi-led forces said Tuesday. The missile and bomb attack hit a Houthi training camp, Col. Turki Al-Malki said.

The coalition of mostly Gulf Arab nations has been carrying airstrikes in Yemen in support of the country's government since 2015.

UN aid chief Mark Lowcock has warned that fierce clashes for the Red Sea port were blocking a crucial road used by food convoys to feed northern Yemen. Half of the country's population, he said, will soon be on the brink of famine.



Attention

Premeditated: Khashoggi was strangled in planned attack, body dismembered says Turkish prosecutor

Saudi Prosecutor
© REUTERS/Kemal Aslan
Saudi public prosecutor Saud Al Mojeb leaves from the Justice Palace in Istanbul, Turkey October 30, 2018.
Journalist Jamal Khashoggi was killed by "strangulation" immediately after he entered the Saudi consulate in Istanbul, a Turkish prosecutor has confirmed, adding that his body was "cut into pieces' after the murder.

The dissident reporter disappeared after going to the diplomatic mission on October 2. After denying his death and the knowledge of his whereabouts for days, Riyadh admitted that Khashoggi died as a result of a 'fist fight.' Later, the Saudi prosecutors also said that some evidence suggested that Khashoggi's killing was premeditated.

Now, the office of Istanbul's chief prosecutor Irfan Fidan says Khashoggi was strangled as soon as he entered the diplomatic compound as part of a premeditated killing. This is the first official confirmation of the murder made by the Turkish officials.

Comment: The prosecutor 'confirms' this. Is there a forensic report to back him up?


Pistol

Tehran accused of attempting to assassinate Iranian opposition figure in Denmark

Finn Borch Andersen
© Politiken
Danish intelligence chief Finn Borch Andersen
Denmark has accused Iran of plotting an attack on at least one Iranian opposition figure living in the Scandinavian country, with Tehran dismissing the allegation as a political stunt meant to undermine its relations with Europe.

The alleged attack would have been aimed at the leader of the Danish branch of the Arab Struggle Movement for the Liberation of Ahvaz (ASMLA), Danish intelligence chief Finn Borch Andersen said on Tuesday.

"We are dealing with an Iranian intelligence agency planning an attack on Danish soil. Obviously, we can't and won't accept that," Andersen told a news conference.

A Norwegian citizen of Iranian descent was arrested in Sweden earlier this month in connection with the foiled operation, Reuters reported.

Iranian foreign ministry spokesman Bahram Qasemi dismissed the accusations, calling them a "continuation of enemies' plots to damage Iranian relations with Europe at this critical time."

Comment: More from The Iranian:
Danish Foreign Minister Anders Samuelsen said on Twitter that the reported attack plot was "completely unacceptable", and that "the government will respond to Iran and is speaking with European partners on further measures," Samuelsen said.

During a subsequent press conference, Samuelsen said that Denmark believes the Iranian government was behind the attempted attack, and that the Danish ambassador has been recalled from Iran. Samuelsen also said that Denmark will push for EU-wide sanctions against Iran in light of the attempted assassination.

During the conference, Samuelsen also said evidence presented to him by Danish intelligence leaves "no doubt" Iran's government was behind the plan, and said that behavior by Iranian intelligence was not restricted to Denmark, causing alarm across several European nations.



Attention

Erdogan advisor warns Greece will suffer a swift catastrophe if it wages war with Turkey

A controversial adviser to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has issued a sobering warning to Greece, saying it "will end up in a catastrophe" within hours if it decides to wage war on Ankara.
Turksoldiersflagmarch
© Reuters/Umit Bektas
Turkish soldiers marching at a military event.
A controversial adviser to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has issued a sobering warning to Greece, saying it "will end up in a catastrophe" within hours if it decides to wage war on Ankara.

Perhaps having some 'insight', known only to the adviser, Yigit Bulut stated: "Greece will end up in a catastrophe within three to four hours if it wages a war against Turkey. "Notably, the suggestion comes from someone who once said Greece is not a challenge to Turkey as 'it would be like a fly picking a fight with a giant.'"

Bulut's boastful remarks - made recently on local TV - came amid another round of tensions between Turkey and Greece.


Comment: And he is an advisor to Erdogan? Geez.


Satellite

US needs 'offensive weapons in space' for self-defense, Mattis claims

US astronauts
© NASA via Reuters
Dominance in space is vital for the American way of life and the Pentagon must be prepared for deployment and usage of offensive weapons there, in order to protect US interests, Secretary of Defense James Mattis said.

The Pentagon is looking at a two-pronged strategy in space, Mattis told an audience at the US Institute of Peace in Washington on Tuesday. In addition to making US assets in orbit more difficult to destroy and easier to replace, offensive capabilities are under consideration, he said.

"We are going to have to be prepared to use offensive weapons in space should someone decide to militarize it and go on the offensive," said the retired Marine who took over the Pentagon in January 2017.

In any competitive sport in the world, "you cannot simply play defense and win," Mattis added. "This is not an area that we want to be second-place in."

Vader

Good luck with that: Mattis says Syria's Assad eventually will have to be 'managed out of power'

Bashar Assad
© Reuters/SANA
Syrian President Bashar Assad
Syrian President Bashar Assad will ultimately have to be "managed out of power" because he lost credibility, US Secretary of Defense James Mattis said during a discussion at the US Institute of Peace in Washington, DC.

"We see the reason that I think eventually Assad will have to be managed out of power," Mattis said on Tuesday. "I don't think any election run under the offices of the Syrian regime is going to have any credibility with the Syrian people or with the international community."

The United States is committed to supporting local forces in Syria and finding the settlement through the Geneva process, Mattis added.

Comment: Mattis' "vacuum" that he is so worried about is actually Syria reclaiming the territory that rightfully belongs to the country. By propping up the Kurdish SDF in their sham offensive against a miniscule pocket of ISIS in southeastern Deir Ezzor, the US maintains control of Syria's richest oil and gas fields. Which was always the point, with the added bonus of having a strategic drop on Iran. However, at this point in time it seems the only way Assad will be 'managed out of power' is when he chooses to retire. Those who've tried to force him out by various means have not fared well.
assad must go
© Twitter



Attention

Sabotage? Russia's largest floating dock sinks, tower crane makes hole in nation's sole aircraft carrier

Russian Admiral Kuznetsov heavy aircraft-carrying cruiser
© Sergey Eshenko / Sputnik
Russian aircraft carrier Admiral Kuznetsov
Four workers were injured and one is missing as Russia's largest floating dock quickly went underwater. Its tower crane fell 15 meters, crashing on the country's only aircraft carrier and piercing a hole in its hull.

The incident occurred at a shipyard in the port city of Murmansk in northwest Russia, where the aircraft carrier 'Admiral Kuznetsov' was undergoing planned repair and maintenance. The ship was parked in the floating dry dock PD-50. It could hold up to 80,000 tons, and was considered one of the largest floating docks in the world, as well as Russia's largest.

Things went wrong on Tuesday after a short circuit on the shore suddenly shut down the dock's pumps. Once that happened, the tanks were quickly filled with water, and the massive structure began to submerge, the shipyard's spokesman told TASS news agency.

Comment: One must start to wonder at the spate of bad luck Russia is having with regard to major infrastructure.

Alarming: Russia says drilled hole in International Space Station was intentional