Japanese Prime Minister Abe Shinzo conveyed a
message from US President Donald Trump to the Iranian leadership, asking the release of 5 US prisoners and inviting Iran to sit around a negotiation table, adding "he [Donald Trump] would be
ready to suspend all sanctions only during the negotiations". No guarantee was offered to freeze or revoke the sanctions.
Sayyed Ali Khamenei, the Leader of the revolution, rejected the message and any dialogue with the US President and told his guest that he considers Trump unworthy to "
to exchange a message with".
Informed sources close to Iranian decision makers repeated the
words of President Hassan Rouhani and the Iranian advisor to Sayyed Khamenei for international affairs, Ali Akbar Velayati, namely
that "if Iran can't export oil through the Persian Gulf, no-one in the Middle East will be able do this". The source "expects further attacks in the future, given the US decision to stop the flow of oil by all means at all costs.
Thus, oil will stop being delivered to the world if Iran can't export its two million barrels per day".
Two tankers - Kokuka Courageous and Font Altair - were attacked in the Gulf of Oman on Thursday,
putting at risk the supply of oil to the West and making oil tanker navigation in the Middle East very unsafe. "One more attack and insurance companies are expected to increase their fees.
More attacks and no insurance company will agree to cover any oil tanker navigating in Gulf waters, putting Iran and other oil-exporters at the same level. Moreover, let us see what justifications Trump and Europe will offer their people when the price of oil becomes unaffordable", said the source.
Comment: Also keep in mind the following, from
Moon of Alabama:
What makes the situation confusing and the reasoning counterintuitive is that Iran and some of its enemies now have the very same tactical interests. Both sides now want to increase the heat in the region. That guarantees that more such attacks will happen. There are many, many potential targets for this campaign.
Iran's enemies hope that more attacks on tankers will goad Trump, and his British sidekicks, into a military conflict with Iran.
Iran calculates that Trump will see the danger and recognize that such a conflict would ruin his presidency. That he will accept that he has to revoke the sanctions and rejoin the nuclear deal to avoid to be blamed for unprecedented oil prices and catastrophic consequences for the global economy.
We can expect that the cat and mouse game will continue throughout the next twelve months. Trump will be under pressure from both sides. Next spring or summer is the latest point for him to decide either way. Until then we will see more casualties of this new tanker war.
Iran's enemies as well as Iran itself now have an interest that more attacks on tankers happen. But unless there is very convincing independent evidence we will never know who will have committed these. There are simply too many players who have motives and the capabilities to make such attacks happen. All of them have plausible reasons to damage more ships. All of them have plausible deniability. It is this what makes the current situation so dangerous. Luckily the problem can be easily solved.
The one who caused this conflict is Donald Trump. He is also the one who can immediately end it.
And
this:
Iran will move against the interests of the U.S., Israel, Saudi Arabia and the UAE. It will do so in deniable form to give the U.S. and others no opening for taking military actions against it. Iran has friends in various countries in the Middle East who will support it with their own capabilities. The campaign Iran now launches will also create severe damage for other countries.
Consider this news, too. Perhaps it's relevant, perhaps it's not. But if Magnier and MoA are correct, that's just how things will be for the coming months:
Military Base Hosting US Troops Comes Under Mortar Attack in Iraq
News about the assault comes amid rising tensions in the region, as Washington accused Iran of attacking several tankers in the Gulf of Oman earlier this month.
Iraq's military said in a statement that militants attacked the Balad Air Base north of Baghdad on Saturday, firing three mortar shells. No casualties have been reported, however, the attack caused small fires, which were extinguished immediately.
According to AP, citing an anonymous security officer that American trainers are stationed at Balad air base.
Comment: What a show it will be.