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Fri, 05 Nov 2021
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Bank of America warns: 'Enjoy it while it lasts'

Money/pillars
© www.cio.com
Last August, several of Bank of America's more skeptical analysts including Michael Hartnett and chief economist Ethan Harris wrote a piece on the law of large numbers, arguing that an ever-expanding list of uncertainties would likely undercut the markets going into year-end. At the time, the main concerns were the trade war, a hawkish Fed, Brexit, Quitaly and Iran oil sanctions. And now, Bank of America once again warns that this fall, a similar set of concerns could come to a head and halt the current rally in global equity markets. As always, the trade war is at the top of the list.
Chart rising uncertainties
While BofA's economists are hopeful for a partial de-escalation between the US and China in the next few months, they are are becoming increasingly concerned that the current tariffs are permanent. With the US and China facing off across a demilitarized zone, a number of other battle fronts could emerge. The deadline for avoiding auto tariffs is mid-November. Additionally, there is a steady drift toward some kind of currency war: in the form of either countervailing duties or outright intervention. Countries that benefit from production shifting out of China, including Vietnam and other ASEAN countries, could face at least a serious threat of US tariffs. Meanwhile, the list of foreign firms facing unfair trade investigations by the US Commerce Department continues to grow. Elsewhere, Brexit, Middle East tensions, fraying Japan and Korea relations, and Washington DC policy missteps all loom as risk factors.

Question

Who's a Kremlin agent? Boris Johnson for talking to a 'Russian oligarch' who hates Putin

Boris Johnson
© independent.co.uk
Boris Johnson
In 2019, merely being on first-name terms with a Russian makes a Western politician a pawn of Vladimir Putin, even if the Russian in question fled the country 15 years ago, and has an outstanding Moscow police warrant against him.

Catherine Belton, a former Financial Times correspondent in Moscow, has produced a truly exhausting 3,500-word investigation in search of a crime for Reuters. The subject of the special report is the relationship between UK's likely next prime minister, Boris Johnson, and an exiled executive for long-defunct Russian oil giant Yukos, Alexander Temerko, though it is almost impossible to understand what the actual point of the piece is, beyond its insinuation that "MPs are increasingly wary of possible Russian influence over British politics."

Russian diminutives as evidence of conspiracy

We learn that "Temerko rose to prominence in the Russia arms industry in the 1990s, in the wild days that followed the collapse of the Soviet Union," though rather than the wheeler-dealer Lord of War picture this paints, the 57-year-old was actually a high-ranking government official, close to the administration of then-President Boris Yeltsin, and helped set up Russia's post-Soviet arms exporter.

Switching over to the private sector, Temerko sat on the board of oligarch Mikhail Khodorkovsky's energy company, and when the Yukos boss was charged with embezzlement, he stayed in Russia for two years, before fleeing in 2005, fraud charges hanging over him. Having convinced UK authorities that the accusations were politically motivated, Temerko was granted British citizenship in 2011, and has spent the past decade involved in Western energy businesses.

Jet3

US military complains Venezuelan jet 'aggressively shadowed' its spy plane...and then blames Russia

Venezuelan jet
© Twitter/Southcom
A Venezuelan Su-30 fighter "aggressively shadowed" an American spy plane over the Caribbean Sea, the US military said, claiming the jet was at an "unsafe distance" and blaming Russia for its "irresponsible" support for Caracas.

Footage of the Russian-made Su-30 aircraft approaching a US EP-3 reconnaissance plane was released by the Southern Command on Sunday. The US military said the incident took place over the Caribbean Sea on July 19, but did not indicate how close the EP-3 was to the Venezuelan border, stating that the planes were in international airspace.

Arrow Up

Ukraine snap election: Zelensky's new party gains parliamentary faction

Zelenskiy and Olena.
© REUTERS/Valentyn Ogirenko
Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and his wife Olena.
The newly formed party of Volodymyr Zelensky gained the majority of votes in Ukraine's parliament elections, while ultra-nationalist parties failed to pass threshold. The president still has to find coalition partners.

Zelensky is a professional comedian who entered politics last year to successfully defeat his predecessor, Petro Poroshenko, in April in a crushing landslide victory with over 70 percent of the vote.

His ability to enact his policies, however, has been undermined by a lack of representation in the parliament, where allies of Poroshenko have held a ruling majority and defeated Zelensky's numerous attempts to sack senior officials loyal to the previous president. His response was to call a snap election in his inauguration speech in May.

Sunday's vote proved a reasonable success for the new head of state. His party, called 'Servant of the People' after a TV show in which he played a fictional Ukrainian president, scored almost 44 percent of the vote, according to the national exit poll.

Yet without a majority of seats, his faction will need an ally to form a ruling coalition.

Comment: See also:


Bad Guys

'Jihad Squad' meme posted on Illinois GOP FB page angers Democrats

Jihad squad
A Republican group has distanced itself from an altered movie poster that appeared on its Facebook page, depicting four progressive congresswomen as 'The Jihad Squad'. The post sparked outrage among local Democrats.

The now deleted post appeared on the Illinois Republican County Chairman's Association Facebook page on Friday evening. The image is a doctored poster from the 2013 film 'Gangster Squad', with the faces of Reps. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY), Ilhan Omar (D-MN), Ayanna Pressley (D-MA) and Rashida Tlaib (D-MI) photoshopped onto the protagonists.

"Jihad Squad," the poster reads, with the tagline: "Political Jihad is their game. If you don't agree with their socialist ideology, you're racist."

Comment: Political leaders, such as those in The Squad as well as others are indeed using more and more extreme ideologies to radicalize Americans into hating one another. In this respect, the meme is actually pretty accurate.


Chess

Pompeo: UK must look after its own ships in the Gulf

oil tanker
The UK must be responsible for the safety of its own ships in the Gulf, the US secretary of state, Mike Pompeo, has said.

His remarks reflect unresolved tensions between Britain and the US over Donald Trump's plans for a US-led military convoy to protect international shipping operating off the Iranian coast.

Speaking on Fox News, Pompeo said: "The responsibility in the first instance falls to the United Kingdom to take care of their ships. The US has a responsibility to do its part."

British ministers discussed the issue at a Cobra emergency meeting that largely focused on how to respond to the Iranian capture on Friday of the British-flagged Stena Impero. The ship, crewed largely by Indian nationals, is being held in the Iranian port of Bandar Abbas. All crew members are in good health and still onboard, the Iran embassy in India said on Monday.

Snakes in Suits

Tory MP Charlie Elphicke charged with sexual assault

Charlie Elphicke
© Sky News
The Conservative MP Charlie Elphicke has been charged with three counts of sexual assault relating to two women, prosecutors have said.

The MP for Dover and Deal is alleged to have committed the first offence in 2007 against one complainant and two further offences against a second complaint in 2016, the Crown Prosecution Service (CPS) said.

He will appear at Westminster magistrates court on 6 September.

Elphicke, 49, was suspended from the Conservative party in November 2017 after allegations made against him were referred to the police.

Bad Guys

AOC draws heat by calling for '9/11-style commission' on family separations

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez AOC
Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-Queens/Bronx) called for a "9/11-style commission" to look into the Trump administration's policy of separating migrant families at the US border.

Speaking Saturday at a town hall in Queens, she said the US has a "lifelong commitment" to migrant children who have been separated under the policy, which the administration said it discontinued after coming under heavy criticism.

It "will take a 9/11-style commission," the liberal darling said. "We need a commission on child separation."

Her mention of 9/11 to criticize a Trump policy drew a quick rebuke from the Republican National Committee.

Bad Guys

Police seize explosives at storehouse used by pro-independence group Hong Kong National Front

hong kong police
© Reuters/Tyrone Siu
Police stand guard at Hong Kong's tourism district Tsim Sha Tsui during anti-extradition bill protest, China July 7, 2019.
One person was arrested after Hong Kong police discovered a stash of explosives and weapons, stored along with banners and clothes bearing the emblem of the Hong Kong National Front (HKNF) party, in a raid on Friday night.

Police said Saturday a bomb disposal unit was called to a warehouse belonging to the pro-independence group to carry out a controlled detonation of the highly unstable substance tri-acetone tri-peroxide (TATP). A total of two kilograms (4.4 pounds) of TATP was discovered by the police, in addition to 10 incendiary devices, acidic substances, and sharp tools that could be used as weapons, the Hong Kong Free Press reported.

Comment: The conflict over the changing relations between Hong Kong and China has been brewing since 2014 when the US began funding an "Occupy"-style movement in Hong Kong. The West is losing its grip on another colony and is becoming desperate. More on the protests and counter-protests in Hong Kong:
Tens of thousands of people showed up for a rally in support of police officers in Hong Kong days after a video emerged showing protesters brutally beating a riot cop. Several Chinese flags were spotted in the crowd.

The rally on Saturday evening drew in thousands of locals, including representatives of local minorities, immigrants and celebrities. Some reportedly travelled from the mainland to take part in the massive protest in Tamar Park on Saturday evening.

Turnout estimates vary dramatically between the police and the 70 or so pro-government activists and public personalities who organized the protest. While the organizers said that 316,000 people took to the streets on Saturday, police put the number at 103,000.

The rally ended with a call for unity and against violence. "We don't want violence. We don't want a split. We want rule of law, peace, stability and unity!" the organizers said in a joint statement, the South China Morning Post reported.

The rally was convened shortly after family members of 60 police officers penned an open letter to Hong Kong Chief Executive Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor, calling on the government to launch an inquiry into the recent unrest and refrain from using police officers as "human shields" that are "forced to bear the consequences of the government's maladministration."

Hong Kong has been gripped by protests over a now-suspended extradition bill that would have allowed the former British colony to hand over criminal suspects to mainland China. Police have been heavily criticized for their ham-fisted approach to tackling the unrest. Initially peaceful demonstrations over the extradition bill quickly spiraled into violence and saw multiple fierce clashes between police and demonstrators, whom Lam described as "rioters."

Earlier this week, a video went viral showing a group of protesters kicking a policeman down an escalator during Sunday's demonstration in a mall in Hong Kong's Sha Tin district.



Chess

Hell freezes over? New York Times wants closer relationship with Russia, congratulates Trump

trump and putin russian dolls
© Global Look Press/dpa/Hendrik Schmidt
The New York Times' editorial board, fresh from peddling anti-Russia conspiracies for two years, has made a remarkable about-turn. Now the paper wants closer relations with the Kremlin, all to thwart China's ambitions.

'Russiagate' has maintained an iron grip on American political discourse for two years now, even after Special Counsel Robert Mueller's report cleared President Donald Trump of conspiring with the Kremlin to steal the 2016 US election. In the media, the public has been treated to nightly conspiracy theories and bizarre connect-the-dots articles claiming to prove collusion; and lawmakers have crafted ever more draconian sanctions bills against Russia and have slotted opposition to Russia into their campaign messages.

Meanwhile, Moscow and Beijing have looked to each other, holding joint military exercises and upping their trade volume to more than $100 billion in 2018. Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev recently announced plans to build a new, 2,000km-long highway linking Europe and China, while President Vladimir Putin has been mulling connecting Russia's Northern Sea Route with China's Maritime Silk Road, an ambitious global trade route linking China with ports in Southeast Asia, Africa, Europe, and the Middle East.