In
an article from a few years ago, I noted the likelihood of a "myriad of new consequences induced by the U.S. and Russian interventions in Iraq and Syria. They are very unlikely to be good. One can only hope that they will be limited to a slight escalation of the 'new cold war' rather than its transformation into a hot one." It was feared that great power meddling in these regions' politics, intended to increase or maximize power, is likely to bring unintended, unmanageable, and potentially catastrophic consequences further down the road. While as yet not catastrophic in terms of its own consequences,
U.S. President Donald trump's recent decision to recognize of Israel's sovereignty over the Golan Heights appears to one of those consequences. Nonetheless,
it is a regrettable decision driven by a combination of motives, some emotional, others ideological, others driven by geopolitical interests as understood by the present elite through its 'lone superpower' lens. The decision
strikes a fifth, even fatal blow (if one has not already been delivered)
to one of the post-Cold War - indeed post-Congress of Vienna principles of the international order (ironically laid down Russian Tsar Alexander I in league with Austria and Prussia after the Napoleonic wars):
the inviolability of state borders.
Trump's emotions often get the better of him. One need only read a biography of him, watch him in debates, or his look at his less than presidential tweets.
In this case, however, the emotional impetus, is more likely to have come from the old guardians of the neocon order. Such anti-Russian hawks around him sought revenge for Putin's annexation of Crimea, which somewhat foiled the West's 'capture' of Ukraine in the February 2014 Maidan uprising. Now, Washington has taken revenge for that and for Russia's supplanting it as the force that will decide the future of Syria. Put simply: Washington takes 'Russia's Kiev' - Moscow takes Crimea (and maybe Donbass?), Moscow takes Syria back from the clutches of Washington, Washington gives Israel the Golan. Take that. Trump likely went along because of some sympathies for Israel and the need to compensate for the decline in his own domestic political resulting from his decision to cut American losses and reverse a failed Obama administration policy, which he inherited.
Comment: See also: