Major turbulence seems to be the name of the game in 2016. Yet the current turbulence may be interpreted as the calm before the next, devastating geopolitical/financial storm. Let's review the current state of play via the dilemmas afflicting the House of Saud, the EU and BRICS members Russia, Brazil and China.

Oil and the House of Saud

Not many people are familiar with the Baltic Dry Index. Yet the Index is key to track commodity demand. Two months ago, it was trading to all-time lows. Since then, it has increased over 130%. Precious metals prices have all moved higher in virtually all currencies. Why is this important? Because it tells us that faith in fiat currencies - the US dollar especially — is sharply declining.

The Baltic Index rise portends a rise in oil demand in Asia - especially China. Falling supply and rising demand for oil will likely drive up the price of the barrel of oil in the second half of 2016.

That does not mean that the House of Saud will win back the trust of both the US and Russia. Deep sources keep confirming that as far as Washington and Moscow are concerned, the House of Saud is expendable. Both are really energy independent (should the US want to be). Powerful Washington factions blatantly accuse Riyadh of "terror" - well, it's way more complicated - while Moscow regards the House of Saud as following US orders to destroy Russia in an oil price war.

Chief of the Libyan army Khalifa Haftar is preparing troops for an attack on the position of the terrorist group "Islamic State" (IS, banned in Russia) in the city of Sirte, which should begin within 48 hours, according to British newspaper The Times , citing military sources.

The newspaper notes that about 7000 military deployed in the city of Ajdabiya, have to strike the first blow to the positions of the IS. Another 700 military will be to the south-east of the city of Sirte, ready for battle, which in the military is estimated to last at least a month. The troops will air support from MiG-23 fighter aircraft, reported Gen. Akram Bou-Khaliq.

Residents of the city Ajdabiya videotaped a large convoy of 150 pick-up trucks equipped with anti-aircraft guns, which was heading towards Sirte.

The Government of National Unity opposes these actions by stating that they can not only lead to clashes with the militants IS, but also with the military loyal to the General National Congress in Tripoli, whose forces are now deployed to the west of the city of Sirte.

After blaming Russia for inflation skyrocketing to 80 percent over the last three years and losing $100 billion in trade, Kiev says Moscow is now responsible for Ukraine's 20 percent GDP drop.

"Ukraine has lost more than 20 percent of its GDP as a result of Russian aggression. This comes along with the effective economic war that Russia initiated against us, blocking our exports and transit to Central Asia and China," said Ukrainian Deputy Foreign Minister Vadym Pristayko at a UN Security Council meeting.

Pristayko was implying that Russia is violating the Budapest agreements of 1994, where the "signatories pledged not to exert economic pressure on Ukraine."

However, Moscow considers its new trade relations as a response to unfriendly economic measures from Kiev.

Moscow has voiced concerns over the landing of 150 US soldiers in Rumeilan, northeastern Syria, without the consent of the Syrian government, calling it a "violation of the country's sovereignty."

"Speaking from the position of the Foreign Ministry, we can't help but be concerned about the fact that such actions are being carried out by the US without the consent of the legitimate government of the Syrian Arab Republic," Russia's Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov told TASS.

"It is a violation of sovereignty," he said. "I emphasize that a similar political assessment has already been given by official Damascus, and we express our full solidarity with it," the Russian diplomat said.

He added that "contacts between Russia-US defense ministries are taking place on a daily basis."

Russia's Deputy Foreign Minister said the issues are being discussed by "professionals who are well versed in the situation, its dynamics, and in the existing threats and challenges, which can be tackled by the corresponding contingents."

A bid to assassinate the head of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic, Aleksandr Zakharchenko, allegedly plotted by Kiev has been foiled by the DPR's security forces.

On Friday, Zakharchenko's press service confirmed the reports of an assassination attempt, promising to reveal further details later. A source in DPR's State Security Ministry said its "operatives... on Thursday detained a group of Ukrainian citizens, who had arrived from territories controlled by Kiev." "The individuals had in their possession a powerful explosive disguised as an interior design item," the source said.

The would-be assassins had previously studied Zakharchenko's daily routes to locate the best spot for the attack, according to the source. The attempt on the DPR prime minister's life had been planned to be carried out at a small arms training center in Donetsk, he added.

Zakharchenko said the assassination attempt on him was prepared by the Ukrainian Security Service. "They [the assailants] were Ukraine security operatives," he said, as cited by the Donetsk news agency. All suspects have been arrested and are currently being interrogated, the source said.

The German Bundeswehr is planning to deploy its soldiers in Lithuania as part of NATO's mission aimed at "containing" possible Russian aggression, German media reported.

According to German magazine Der Spiegel, the German military will be deployed in Lithuania after the next NATO summit in Warsaw in July.

During the meeting, NATO countries plan to make a decision on strengthening the eastern flank of the alliance. The mission involves deployment of a permanent NATO contingent in the Baltic States, Poland and Romania. Each country is expected to host a battalion of up to 1,000 soldiers.

"Ahead of the meeting in Hanover, Obama had signaled that he, particularly, expects military contributions from Germany and the UK," the magazine wrote.

A Russian Air Force MiG-31 jet intercepted a US spy plane near Kamchatka in Russia's Far East last week, flying within 15 meters of the aircraft. Washington downplayed the incident, saying it was carried out in a "safe and professional" manner.

The MiG-31 (NATO code name Foxhound) is a Soviet-design supersonic interceptor, the world's fastest aircraft in service today. It got to within 15 meters of a US surveillance plane, which was flying in international airspace near the city of Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky.

"On April 21, a US Navy P-8 Maritime Patrol reconnaissance aircraft flying a routine mission in international airspace was intercepted by a MiG-31 Russian jet in the vicinity of the Kamchatka Peninsula," Cmdr. Dave Benham, a spokesman for the Pacific Command, told the Washington Free Beacon.

However, rather than kicking up a fuss, Benham added that the maneuver was carried out in a "safe and professional" manner.

A full 27 years after the event, the inquest into the Hillsborough disaster concluded that 96 Liverpool Football Club supporters, crushed to death on April 15, 1989, were unlawfully killed.

The verdict in the longest jury case in British legal history vindicates the extraordinary campaign by the families, friends and supporters of those killed, injured and traumatized.

In the teeth of a state-organised cover-up, they vowed to bring those responsible for the deaths of their loved ones to justice. Their fight to reveal the truth in the face of a catalogue of lies concocted by the police, the Conservative government and the right-wing media is a testament to the principles of class solidarity and struggle against enormous odds. So determined were the families to get justice that some of them refused to accept a death certificate for their loved ones, after the original 1991 inquest recorded a verdict of "accidental death" for all 96.

Those killed were attending a match at Sheffield Wednesday's Hillsborough football ground. Men, women and children were crushed to death after David Duckenfield, the police officer in command, gave the order to open Exit Gate C at 2.52 pm, just before the 3 pm kickoff. Hundreds of fans were directed into two already dangerously overcrowded "pens." Many died in these pens, while others passed away after escaping onto the pitch. The youngest victim was just 10 years old and the oldest, 67. Thirty-seven were teenagers, most still at school. The victims included three pairs of brothers, two sisters and one father and son.

The verdict triggered an outburst of pent-up emotion. Relatives and supporters, many in tears, applauded the jury as it exited. Outside court they cheered. One of the Hillsborough campaigners, Trevor Hicks, who lost two daughters, Sarah and Vicki, responded, "I think if anyone is a winner today, it's society at large in that, no matter who you are, how big you are, or where you are in your organisation, the public will come after you if you do anything wrong."

Margaret Aspinall, who lost her 18-year-old son James, said, "Let's be honest about this—people were against us. We had the media against us, as well as the establishment. Everything was against us."

Anonymous, the mostly toothless hackster activists, do put out good videos. (There's something to be said for a bark, even when there is little bite.) Though not one of their snazzier productions, here is a fact-packed 25-minute rundown on Hillary's loooooong and horrific record of crimes, corruption, and abuses of power. With time to do little more than list the sordid scandals, the video does not even get around to mentioning her leading role in international war crimes, from Libya to Honduras, that have left countless thousands of innocents dead (and the Clintons rich). These are crimes in which the full US administration and both political "parties" are fully complicit. (And the US taxpayer, in very concrete ways, "responsible.")

About the author

Steven Wolf is an Ottoman urban historian. He writes geopolitical commentary about ongoing events in Turkey and Syria, his areas of historical specialization, at CaravansarayPosts.com.

This morning, the security forces of the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) apprehended a vehicle loaded with a large amount of Israeli-manufactured weapons in Syria's southern As Swaida'a governorate.

According to military sources, the vehicle was heading towards the western countryside of As Swaida'a. However, it failed to reach its destination due to a SAA ambush which was enabled through intel of local residents.