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Enhanced cooperation

In May this year during a meeting of the Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Sochi, they agreed on the implementation of large-scale bilateral economic projects. In particular, these envisage the development of joint infrastructure projects in the Russian Far East - ports, hospitals, as well as a gas processing plant. They also include projects in the field of small and medium industry, energy, high technology, and nuclear industry.

HideGeo-economics as the geopolitics

Economic cooperation has a political dimension. Japan is concerned about complaints that China is a regional hegemon in the Pacific. The Japanese perspective is that the Chinese claim to occupy the highest place in the regional hierarchy is not justified. Therefore, Japan would like to enlist Russia's support in its disputes with China. Russia, in turn, is interested in that, creating mutually beneficial and close relations with Japan, not to depend on China as their sole partner in the Pacific Ocean and contribute to a more independent course of Japan from the United States.

The US-led coalition did not provide previously-agreed air support to Turkish forces and Free Syrian Army rebels when they were attacked by Islamic State militants outside the city of Jarablus in northern Syria, losing several troops wounded in action. A Free Syrian Army (FSA) unit and Turkish troops came under heavy machine gun fire from Islamic State (IS, formerly ISIS/ISIL) in a village located nearby Jarablus on Tuesday evening, Anadolu news agency reported on Wednesday.

Taking heavy enemy fire, Turkish air forward observers requested immediate support from the NATO airbase at Incirlik, from which the US-led coalition's aircraft operate. The agency's report also said that some US aircraft were already airborne for a regular patrolling mission. However, the US command was reluctant to provide air cover and reportedly delayed scrambling jets for about an hour, making excuses, though such scenarios were previously agreed between the US and Turkish militaries, according to Anadolu.

In the meantime, a Turkish tank which supported advancing rebels was hit by a rocket fired by Islamists, wounding three soldiers, an FSA source told the news agency. "We could have lost many people," the source said. "The Americans had promised to provide air support in case of an emergency, but they did not. They should have helped; however, the air intervention came in late because of them."

Consequently, the Turkish Air Force scrambled its own aircraft which arrived "last minute" and hit IS targets, the source added. US-led coalition jets came in and bombed the area three hours later, and the airstrike was useless, Anadolu said.

Washington seems to have warmed up to the initiative in recent months, but the US wanted to remove Kurdish forces from the conflict area. The White House was ready to conduct a high-level meeting on the possible operation on August 24, the Wall Street Journal reported, but by that time Turkey had already launched the ground offensive. "Ankara pulled the trigger on the mission unilaterally, without giving officials in Washington advance warning," the newspaper noted, adding that Turkey conducted its first airstrikes against targets in Syria alone. The US decided to provide air cover to the Turkish forces only after it understood that Operation Euphrates Shield was underway.

The media outlet described what happened as a "breakdown in coordination" that the US chose to keep under wraps. Early on August 24, the Turkish Prime Minister Binali Yildirim issued a statement saying that Turkey launched an operation to free the Syrian city of Jarablus that involved "the Turkish Armed Forces and the International Coalition Air Forces," referring to the US warplanes. Hours later an unnamed US official told Reuters that the US Air Force would provide air cover for Operation Euphrates Shield, adding that Washington was "in synch" with Ankara's initiative. Apparently, this is not how it went down. "Behind the scenes, cooperation between the North Atlantic Treaty Organization partners broke down at senior levels," the WSJ reported, citing unnamed officials from the US and Turkey. "The two countries weren't as aligned on the operation as their public statements indicated."

As a result, Turkey's operation undermined Washington's "behind-the-scenes" efforts to remove the Syrian Kurds from regions west of the Euphrates, something that Ankara has always seen as a red line. Since Washington failed to accomplish this task on time, Turkey's decision to go ahead with the operation also "created a prickly, new challenge for the US" as fighting erupted between its two regional allies that were supposed to focus on tackling Daesh.

The new deal will most likely involve both sides sponsoring a ceasefire in Aleppo and introducing a mechanism to uphold it, but it will not see armed rebel groups put down their weapons or Moscow and Washington conduct joint airstrikes on the city, the media outlet noted.

Turkey's ground offensive that was launched on August 24 was "apparently coordinated" with Moscow, Damascus and Tehran, the media outlet said, offering possible conditions of the agreement if it was made. They involve Ankara saying yes to Assad remaining in power, making every effort to prevent the Kurds from carving an independent state out of northern Syria and withdrawing its support from Jaysh al-Fath, also known as the Army of Conquest. The latter is a jihadist coalition, comprising Ahrar al-Sham, Jaish al-Islam, Jabhat Fatah al-Sham (formerly called al-Nusra Front), Jabhat Ansar al-Din, Jaysh al-Sunna, etc.

In addition, "thirteen rebel factions of Fatah Halab, a group that has been fighting against government forces in Idlib and Aleppo, were redeployed through the Turkish territory to northern Syria prior to Ankara's operation," Svobodnaya Pressa said. "Along with the Turkish military they are currently fighting against Daesh and the Syrian Democratic Forces made of Kurdish and Arab fighters." Fatah Halab comprises Faylaq al-Sham, Nour al-Din al-Zinki, Sultan Murad, Jabhat al-Shamiya, 13th Division, Suqor al-Jebel, Jaish al-Tahrir, Hamza Division, Jaish al-Nasr, Mutassim Brigade, Ahrar Tel Rifaat, Liwa al-Fate and to an extent Ahrar al-Sham, an organization that Russia considers to be a terrorist group.

"There is only one way to resolve the Fatah Halab issue - by adding the group to the list of organizations covered by the ceasefire," Svobodnaya Pressa said. "The group has already published a statement agreeing to deliver humanitarian aid to Aleppo through the Ramouseh suburb and the Castello Road." Ahrar al-Sham, Jaish al-Islam and Jabhat Fatah al-Sham could also be added to the list of groups covered by the ceasefire regime that Russia and the US brokered in early 2016, Svobodnaya Pressa said. "If leaders of these groups come to an agreement, then the plan under which al-Nusra Front opted for a rebranding will work. The organization will dissolve in the new structure that will join the ceasefire. This new group will most likely be led by Ahrar al-Sham," the media outlet noted.

If these assertions are correct, the new agreement between Russia and the US will not "cleanse" Aleppo of armed opposition, but it will still be able to enforce a ceasefire regime in the city. Some rebel fighters will then join those fighting against Daesh in northern Syria. There are certain doubts that either Russia or the US will agree to view al-Nusra Front as a member of legitimate opposition, since both countries consider al-Qaeda's former offshoot in Syria to be a terrorist organization.