Foreign Policy Diary - Syria Ceasefire. Strategic Implications

US Secretary of State John Kerry said Washington is considering a "plan B" in Syria, if peace negotiations and the ceasefire fail. Media reports suggest that the backup plan could include the division of Syria.

Mr. Kerry's comments came after Russia and the US agreed a document on the cessation of hostilities in the Arab republic. According to the deal, the ceasefire will start on February 27 and will last for one week.

The truce is applied to all parties of the conflict, which indicated their commitment to accept the terms of the deal, except for the terrorist groups Daesh and al-Nusra Front.

The Russian/Syrian agreement to the cessation of hostilities in Syria is seen critical from a military point of view. It would have been better to use the current momentum and to proceed fighting instead of giving respite to the enemy.

But the agreement has one huge advantage. It excludes the Islamic State and Jabhat al-Nusra. Every "western" media report on the agreement and its likelihood to proceed now has to admit what has long been denied. That the unicorn U.S. supported "moderate rebels" are in deep alliance with al-Qaeda.

Even the grey lady now concedes:

many of the anti-Assad groups aligned with the United States fight alongside the Nusra Front

The readers of such piece note that the U.S. is actually supporting the terrorists it claimed to be fighting for the last 13 years. Somehow that does not compute. This will put pressure the Obama administration. It can hardly blame Russia and Syria for continuing a campaign against Al-Qaeda even during a cessation of hostility with U.S. supported "moderates". The U.S. lauds itself over killing alleged Al-Qaeda followers in drone strikes all over the world. How can it blame Russia for doing likewise in Syria?

The coordination center on the ceasefire set up by the Russian Defense Ministry in Syria has already received over a dozen calls, the ministry's spokesman Maj Gen Igor Konashenkov said on Wednesday.

"These are not rare cases, there are dozens of them," he said.

The center received about ten calls from those areas in Syria where Russian servicemen are carrying out active work, he said. Thus, the center's staff members are working with representatives of the opposition groups in the Hama, Homs, Latakia provinces and the cities of Damascus and Daraa.

"Application papers for the cessation of hostilities have been signed as a result of this work, like it happened in the village of Dzhavalik and other localities in the Homs province," the Russian general said.

The US-Russian Joint Statement on Syria is attracting a lot of attention. Its text - as provided by the US Statement Department - is set out below.

The Statement is being misinterpreted as a declaration of a ceasefire.

It is nothing of the sort and the term "ceasefire" does not appear in it, though it is used in one or two places in the Annex.

A ceasefire require a complete end to all hostilities.

The Statement not only does not require this, but on the contrary it specifically authorises military action by the Russian and Syrian armed forces against armed jihadi groups operating in Syria which are classified as terrorist groups by the UN Security Council.

A federal judge ruled Tuesday that top aides to Democratic presidential front-runner Hillary Clinton should be questioned under oath about her use of a private email server as secretary of state, raising new political and legal complications for Clinton as she tries to maintain momentum for her campaign.

The ruling granted a request from the conservative group Judicial Watch, which sought testimony from State Department officials and members of Clinton's inner circle to determine whether Clinton's email arrangement thwarted federal open-records laws.

Yesterday we reported the good news that Russia had brokered a deal with the US to allow Humanitarian aid to finally enter the western- backed terrorist besieged villages of Kafarya and Foua. While the sun never sets on the Madaya propaganda, these two villages have been left in the shade by mainstream media, International aid organisations, the UN and "regime change" intended Western governments.

Today, however, we received the following distressing statement from the Specialist Hospital in al Foua:

Statement by the Specialist Hospital of AlFua and the People of the Besieged Towns of AlFua and Kefraya on the Recent UN Humanitarian Aid Delivery

Residents of the two towns besieged by al-Qaeda terrorist gangs received, with a great deal of hope, the news of an international agreement in Munich, regarding the facilitation of humanitarian aid deliveries to the besieged areas. The hope came after a long-standing series of disappointments due to irresponsible behaviour, mistakes and the bad practices of the International organizations concerned.

Accumulated instances of malpractice have led us to conclude that these organisations have deliberately penalised the residents of Kafarya and Foua.

The hopes of the hungry children and the elderly patients quickly faded and were downtrodden as the roar of the Syrian Arab Red Crescent trucks arriving in our towns subsided and we saw the poor quality of the goods being delivered. Many of the items were damaged or perished. Many of the supplies had to be destroyed as they were useless. Equally many of the items essential to ensure the continuation of hospital work and to meet civilian's basic needs were simply not delivered.

We, in the only hospital in the towns, and on behalf of our suffering people, call the United Nations and its representative in Syria, Mr Staffan de Mistura, to listen to the following:

The United Nations and its affiliated organizations are not dealing realistically with the needs of the population. They seem to act in accordance with programs designed for other regions of the world that suffer from entirely different problems. Mr. de Mistura please take note that we are in Syria, in a rich and generous land surrounded by militants belonging to globally classified terrorist groups. We are not in Somalia suffering from famine caused by drought and desertification. We emphasize that the continuation of this policy and the ignoring of our repeated requests [ that are transmitted through officially adopted channels of communication] is forcing us to conclude that these policies are deliberate and are stemming from malicious intent rather than just negligence and irresponsibility.

Saudi Arabia's petroleum minister on Tuesday ruled out the possibility that a recently announced oil production freeze by several countries might lead to cuts to reverse the plunge in oil prices.

"There is no sense wasting our time seeking production cuts," Ali bin Ibrahim al-Naimi told energy executives at the annual IHS CERAweek conference. "That will not happen."

Mr. Naimi's comments put further pressure on oil prices. The price of West Texas intermediate crude oil, the United States benchmark, turned sharply lower after his remarks and settled at $31.87, down more than 4 percent.

Mr. Naimi is widely considered the most influential voice in energy policy in Saudi Arabia, which dominates the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, so his words are followed closely and typically move both energy and equity markets.

Russian President Vladimir Putin is extremely popular in the Syrian capital. The president's rating has even exceeded the popularity of the long-standing ally of Damascus - the leader of Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah, Spanish newspaper El Pais wrote.

In the city streets of Damascus there are portraits and souvenirs of Vladimir Putin everywhere. The president can be seen on billboards, his portraits are hanging along the streets on office buildings and kiosks, the newspape rwrote.

"Since September last year, when, with the support of the Russian air force the Syrian Army won several major victories against the terrorists of Daesh, the ranking of the Russian leader went up and even eclipsed the glory of the leader of Hezbollah."

​Currently, Putin's admiration can be seen in the whole of the capital especially near the central Umayyad mosque bazaars where shop vendors are selling enormous collection of badges, key chains, mugs and t-shirts with the image of the president.

Stop the presses, everyone! The US and Russia have announced a ceasefire in Syria!...again. But this time it's going to work. Except for that whole sticky question about who the ceasefire applies to and under what conditions. Confused? Today Pepe Escobar of Newsbud.com joins us to untangle the confusing mess of the Syria ceasefire and tell us what it really means.