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Will third time be the charm if coalition talks fail to create unity government?

Israelicampaign billboards
© AP/Oded Balilty
As Blue and White leader Benny Gantz starts coalition talks, a former Netanyahu spokesman says everyone will need to make concessions to create a unity government. If efforts fail, Israel might find itself going to the polls for the third time in a year.

Israel's interim Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Blue and White leader Benny Gantz are set to meet on Sunday evening in Tel Aviv in a bid to form a coalition. This would be the first meeting between the two since Gantz received a mandate from President Rivlin tasking him with forming a government, after Netanyahu failed to do so and handed back his mandate on 21 October.

Gantz might have more chances to form a government, believes Shai Bazak, Netanyahu's former media director and the person who has been his spokesperson for years.

The Deal
"Gantz is set to offer Netanyahu a deal. Netanyahu will be the first in rotation as prime minister but in exchange he will ask him to split from the block with the Ultra-Orthodox parties for several months. During this time, the coalition of Netanyahu's Likud and Gantz's Blue and White will pass several laws - including the controversial draft law - and only then will the Orthodox parties be asked to join the coalition," he said, adding that regardless of what the proposition would be both sides will have to make a series of concessions.

"There is no chance for a coalition to emerge if both sides stick to their campaign promises so they will need to compromise."
During the election campaign, Blue and White made voters a number of promises, including vowing to create a secular government that has little or no space for Israel's Ultra-Orthodox parties and not to form a coalition with Netanyahu as long as he is under an actual or recommended indictment.

Comment: See also:


Attention

Erdogan claims Turkey will 'clear terrorists' from Syrian border if Sochi deal fails

Erdogan/YPG
© Reuters/ekurd.net
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has warned that Turkey will "clear terrorists" on its border in northeast Syria if Kurdish fighters do not withdraw by the end of a deadline agreed with Russia.

"If the terrorists are not cleared at the end of the 150 hours, we will take control and clean it ourselves," Erdogan said during a speech in Istanbul on October 26, referring to the YPG militia. Turkey says the YPG is a "terrorist" offshoot of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), which has waged a guerrilla campaign inside Turkey since the 1980s.

Erdogan and Russian President Vladimir Putin agreed a deal in the Black Sea resort of Sochi on October 23 under which Moscow will "facilitate the removal" of the fighters and their weapons from within 32 kilometers of the border. The deadline ends at 6 p.m. local time on October 29.

Erdogan said Turkey has "to a large extent" achieved its goal in terms of setting up a "safe zone" against attacks from the Islamic State (IS) militant group and the YPG. He also urged the international community to support establishing a "safe zone" for some of the 3.6 million Syrian refugees in Turkey.
"If there is no support for the projects we are developing for between 1 and 2 million in the first stage for their return, we will have no option but to open our doors and let them go to Europe."
Erdogan insisted he was "not blackmailing anyone" but "putting forward a solution."

No Entry

Pompeo: US bans air travel to all Cuban cities except Havana

Cuban street
© oilprice.com
Welcome to Cuba
Starting in December, the U.S. will ban flights to all major airports in Cuba, except for the one located in Havana. The decision, according to Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, comes in response to Cuba's support for Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, and aims to ensure that the Cuban government cannot profit from U.S. travel.

In a tweet, Pompeo said he asked Secretary of Transportation Elaine Chao to suspend air service so Cuba cannot profit from U.S. air travel and use the revenues to "repress the Cuban people."
Today, I asked @SecElaineChao to suspend scheduled air service between the U.S. and all Cuban airports, except Havana's Jose Martí Airport. This action will prevent the Castro regime from profiting from U.S. air travel and using the revenues to repress the #Cuban people.

— Secretary Pompeo (@SecPompeo) October 25, 2019
According to a notice published by the Department of Transportation, the policy was created at the Department of State's request. On October 25, Pompeo wrote to Chao that banning travel to the majority of Cuba will "strengthen the economic consequences to the Cuban regime."

Comment: The US demands control and servitude. Cuba has never 'bent the knee'.
See also:


Snakes in Suits

Moscow: Pakistan, China, Russia and US agree to revive US-Taliban talks

TalibantalksKabul
© marshaalradio.com
Taliban talks in Kabul, Afghanistan
Envoys from Pakistan, China, Russia and the United States "categorically" agreed at Afghan consultations in Moscow on Friday that the US-Taliban talks should be resumed, Pakistani Additional Foreign Secretary Muhemmed Aejaz revealed.
"The forum has been supportive of this and we are hopeful that it [talks] restarts as soon as possible ... If you look at the joint statement it says very categorically [that the talks should be renewed] and of course the US side was part of it [joint statement]."
US President Donald Trump broke off in September after a US soldier was killed in a Taliban-claimed bomb blast in Kabul. The Pakistani diplomat said it would only be natural for the US-Taliban talks to continue after so much understanding had been reached and "a lot of effort has been put in it," Aejaz said.
"There is a general hope that it needs to be restarted because the progress that has been achieved after painstaking efforts by the two sides - the US and the Taliban - in nine rounds of talks is something very important."
He added that the four participants of Moscow talks had reaffirmed their commitment to a peaceful solution for the decades-old conflict in Afghanistan.

Comment: See also:


Arrow Up

Losing the mandate of heaven

Japanese Emperor
© Corbett Report
"The President of the United States is in danger of losing the mandate of heaven."

Thus spake Pat Robertson during the recent brouhaha over Syria, where the unthinkable notion that the US might actually pull out of a war zone instead of sending more troops in began to materialize last week.

Now, you might be tempted to dismiss this as just another raving of Pat "God blessed the Gulf War" Robertson, and you wouldn't be wrong. But still, that's quite the phrase: The "mandate of heaven." What does it mean?

Well, it turns out he didn't just make that up himself.

The "Mandate of Heaven" is an argument for the legitimacy of government that arose in ancient China. Called "天命" (Tianming) in Chinese, the concept rests on four basic principles:

-Heaven grants the emperor the right to rule;

-As there is only one Heaven, so there can be only one emperor at a time;

-The emperor's right to rule is dependent upon his virtue; and

-The right to rule is not granted to any particular family line in perpetuity.

Now you might wonder what the "mandate of heaven" has to do with the modern American presidential system, but, in fact, it points to something very important. It is one of those things that is so obvious that it is never spoken out loud except in times of extreme crisis. It is the question of where the legitimacy of the government — and our would-be "rulers" — comes from in the first place.

Chart Pie

Democracy: Afghanistan's presidential election results to be delayed until November

afghan election
© Reuters
An Afghan woman shows proof of her vote after casting a ballot in Kabul on September 28.
Afghanistan's electoral authorities said preliminary results from last month's presidential election will be delayed for weeks.

The Independent Election Commission (IEC) said the preliminary results of the September 28 election will be announced on November 14.

The preliminary results were originally meant to be released on October 19.

IEC chief Hawa Alam Nuristani told reporters in Kabul on October 27 that the election was a " fate-determining issue" and that they could not "accept sacrificing transparency for speed."

The release of the results have been hampered by widespread accusations of misconduct during voting and technical problems with transferring ballot papers and data from the biometric voter verification system.

The postponement is likely to fuel political uncertainty and allegations of fraud.

Comment: Thanks, America, for bringing a thriving and successful democracy to Afghanistan. Maybe after another 18 years of military occupation and war, things will finally settle down?


Megaphone

Iraqi PM orders counterterrorist forces to Baghdad in response to ongoing protests

iraq protests
© REUTERS / THAIER AL-SUDANI
Iraqi Prime Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi ordered for the country's elite counterterrorist forces to be deployed in several districts of Baghdad to guard the premises of state institutions amid ongoing violent protests, the Iraqi Counter-Terrorism Service said in a statement on Sunday.

"On the order of the commander-in-chief of armed forces [Prime Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi] and on the order of the Iraqi Counter-Terrorism Service Chief, counterterrorist forces have been deployed in several districts of Baghdad to protect the governmental and critically important objects from the 'uncontrollable elements,' which abuse the fact that the security forces are busy with ensuring the protection of the protests and protesters," the statement reads.

Comment: Sources told Reuters the troops had been instructed to use "all necessary measures" to end the protests. More on the protests:


NPC

The millionaire scolds the 'peons': Pelosi roasted for blaming voter disenchantment on forces who 'poisoned' social media

pelosi
© Reuters/Carlos Jasso
U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) addresses the audience during the Democratic National Committee's (DNC) 2019 Women's Leadership Forum in Washington, U.S. October 17, 2019.
Dark forces have tainted social media and turned optimistic, hopeful, Americans into unhappy voters, Nancy Pelosi has conveniently claimed. The House Speaker's explanation for the current political mood did not impress Twitter.

The senior Democratic lawmaker told a crowd in Iowa on Saturday that any negative or ambivalent feelings about US politics likely stems from actors "inside and outside" the country who have "poisoned" social media.

Russian Flag

Russiagate's First Survivor: The Harsh Education of Maria Butina

maria butina social media collage
© Maria Butina/Facebook
Maria Butina
As a foreign student eager to bring American values to your home, you'd normally be a darling of US media and NGOs. Unless your name is Maria Butina, that is - then your fate is Russia conspiracy theories, media smears and jail.

Your story begins like a movie: A twenty-something from "flyover country," going to Moscow to advocate for what Americans consider a basic constitutional right, but which has been curtailed for almost a century. Frustrated by the political and social opposition, you move to the US to study - at American University in Washington, DC, can't get more American than that! - and seek out members and officials of the biggest US advocacy group for your cause.

You post photos of yourself in a cowboy hat at their conventions in the heartland and tell tall tales to your fellow students in an effort to be cool and fit in.

Pirates

'Died like a dog': Trump says Islamic State leader Baghdadi killed - for real this time - in US forces raid in Idlib

Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi
© AFP
Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi
President Donald Trump announced on Sunday that fugitive Islamic State leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi died in a raid by U.S. special forces in northwest Syria, in a major blow to the jihadist group.

Baghdadi killed himself during the raid by detonating a suicide vest, Trump said in a televised address from the White House.

Test results from the aftermath of the raid had positively identified Baghdadi, he said.

"He was a sick and depraved man and now he's gone," Trump said.

Trump said "many" of Baghdadi's people were killed, and added that in killing himself, Baghdadi also killed three children.

U.S. forces suffered no personnel losses, he said. He also thanked Russia, Turkey, Syria and Iraq for their support.


Comment: The raid reportedly lasted 4 hours (or 2 hours) and involved helicopters, warplanes and drones, and a firefight with Baghdadi's goons. Two air attacks were followed by a special forces raid. Footage is online claiming to be from the attack in Barisha:


More video from the alleged site (Rasheed, a Syrian journalist, says the Americans totally destroyed the compound which was there):


Another video shows the likely place of the blast which is alleged to have killed the IS leader:



Al-Baghdadi's safe house.
© Global Look Press
Al-Baghdadi's safe house.
Iraqi state TV announced early they would air footage of the raid. So far the Iraqis and the SDF (see tweet below) have claimed to have been involved in the intelligence gathering for the operation. Syrian sources reportedly discovered Baghdadi's whereabouts, and an Iriaqi intel officer claimed they received the information after arresting a man and woman from the IS chief's inner circle. A Turkish official says Baghdadi arrived at his final location 2 days before the operation, and Turkey was aware of the mission.


Trump praised Russia's "great cooperation" in opening up the airspace over Idlib to allow US planes and drones access, and thanked Turkey for allowing the use of its own airspace to fly in. He also thanked the SDF for providing some intelligence. According to General Commander Abdi, the attack was preceded by a 5-month intelligence operation. Another SDF official told reporters that the Turkish invasion delayed the operation 1 month.

Before announcing the news, Trump tweeted "Something very big has just happened!" Before the announcement, Ryan Fournier, co-chairman of Students for Trump, had tweeted that US forces had "captured" Baghdadi, then clarified that it was unconfirmed. Yesterday, Newsweek reported that Pentagon and Army officials had been briefed that Baghdadi had been killed in Idlib in a mission greenlighted by Trump "about a week ago".

Seven bodies were allegedly reported found at the site, including three women and a child. Iraqi intel say they received confirmation that Baghdadi's bodyguard and two of his wives were killed in the raid. Trump described Baghdadi's death like this:

Describing the "daring" raid that led to al-Baghdadi's death as "like watching a movie," Trump spared no details.

"He died after running into a dead-end tunnel, whimpering and crying and screaming all the way," Trump said. "He had dragged three of his young children with him. They were led to certain death."

"He reached the end of the tunnel as our dogs chased him down. He ignited his vest killing himself and the three children," the president continued. Though al-Baghdadi's body was mutilated by the blast, Trump said that test results gave "immediate and totally positive identification."
The thug who tried so hard to intimidate others spent his last moments in utter fear, in total panic and dread, terrified of the American forces bearing down on him.
"Baghdadi and the losers who worked for him, and losers they are, had no idea what they were getting into," he continued. "In some cases they were very frightened puppies. In other cases they were hardcore killers."

Trump described the atrocities of Islamic State under al-Baghdadi, including the genocide of Yazidi civilians, the beheadings of American journalists and aid workers, and the brutal burning alive of a captured Jordanian fighter pilot.

"This was what he was proud of. He was a sick and depraved man, and now he's gone," Trump stated. "Baghdadi was vicious and violent, and he died in a vicious and violent way, as a coward, running and crying."

Triumphant in victory, Trump warned would-be terrorists that they "should never sleep soundly, knowing that we will completely destroy them. These savage monsters will not escape their fate, and they will not escape the final judgment of God."
The Russian Defense Ministry says they have no reliable information about the raid:
"The Russian Defence Ministry has no reliable information about US servicemen conduction an operation to 'yet another' elimination of the former Daesh leader Abu Bark al-Baghdadi in the Turkish-controlled part of the Idlib deescalation zone", ministry spokesman Maj.Gen. Igor Konashenkov said.
...
"Russia treated us great. They opened up - we had to fly over certain Russia-held areas. Russia was great", Trump said.

The Russian Defence Ministry, however, stated that they are unaware of providing cooperation to US air units entering the airspace over the Idlib deescalation zone during that mission.

"No airstrikes performed by US aircraft or aircraft belonging to the so called 'international coalition' were detected on Saturday or during the following days", a statement by Maj.Gen. Igor Konashenkov said.
US Defense Secretary Esper told CNN: ""We tried to call him out and asked him to surrender himself. He refused. He went down to a subterranean area and in the process of trying to get him out, he detonated a suicide vest, we believe, and killed himself."

Nancy Pelosi, Chuck Schumer, and Adam Schiff, among others, were not informed about the raid.

Iranian Telecommunications Minister Mohammad-Javad Azari Jahromi said "not a big deal! you just killed your creature," in response to an earlier tweet from President Trump where he said "something very big just happened."