© Don Davis, NASA
Artist's concept of a catastrophic asteroid impact with the early Earth. An impact with a 500 kilometre diameter asteroid would effectively sterilize the planet. The Earth may have experienced such gigantic impacts in its youth, but fortunately today there are no projectiles this large to threaten our planet.
An asteroid that had initially been deemed harmless has turned out to have a slim chance of hitting Earth in 160 years. While that might seem a distant threat, there's far less time available to deflect it off course.
Asteroid 1999 RQ36 was discovered a decade ago, but it was not considered particularly worrisome since it has no chance of striking Earth in the next 100 years - the time frame astronomers routinely use to assess potential threats.
Now, new calculations show a 1 in 1400 chance that it will strike Earth between 2169 and 2199,
according to Andrea Milani of the University of Pisa in Italy and colleagues.
With an estimated diameter of 560 metres, 1999 RQ36 is more than twice the size of the better-known asteroid Apophis, which has a 1 in 45,000 chance of hitting Earth in 2036 (
New Scientist, 12 July 2008, p 12). Both are large enough to unleash devastating tsunamis if they were to smash into the ocean.
Although 1999 RQ36's potential collision is late in the next century, the window of opportunity to deflect it comes much sooner, prior to a series of close approaches to Earth that the asteroid will make between 2060 and 2080.
Comment: More likely the earth will be hit by a comet or cometary debris. For a more in-depth look, read Laura Knight-Jadczyk's Forget About Global Warming: We're One Step From Extinction! or Tunguska, the Horns of the Moon and Evolution.